Bold enough to place my balls where my mouth is (NO HOMO), I would be remiss if I didn’t warn you against the idle notion of betting against this tape. It’s a rare event to see a stark reversal one day following a +900 point day. There is wind in the sails of all leveraged bull-tards now and you cannot stop the buying.
With the nearly 4% gain in copper, it appears a V SHAPED economic recovery is what we’re pricing in now, even though none of the actual forecasts suggest such a thing is possible. Just yesterday Goldman said Q3 GDP would be -30% and they no longer sought a full recovery for Q4. But who are we to fight such trends and happenings? I am merely a servant to fashion and right now I am tethered to the long side.
Although tempting to short shit to zero, the time isn’t ripe and wayward bets only serve to succor fanatical fantasies fueled by weakened emotions, all thanks and praise to COVID-19 — a stunning success!
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There’s many who are tired of the covid-19 talk.
I told you in March this was all planned by GS. This can’t be a natural occurrence; crash then buy at 66% and take off.
And the game goes on, Powell has provided plenty of chips!
Dark side trade is TLT …set up to go below 156
Depending on other alternative, I think an accumulation in the low 150s for tlt is very wise.
Yep crazy but true. Higher we go. Somehow traders waded through Powell’s comments and walked away with, “we’re having a V-shaped recovery.” Which is all the more crazy because not only did he not say that, but a good part of his talk was actually saying the opposite explicitly.
Official Chinese Governemetn Data says that Chineses expot in May 2020 were greater than 2019. If this is true, that would be great for countreis to follow. However, even if China’s internal consumption has hit April 2019 (somthing which I doubt, but coudld be possible), I don’t see how exports could ahve recovered given the state of their export destinations. Will be intersting to see how “imports from China” fare when the US, Japan, Europe, etc. reveal their April trade numbers.
Also, my main question has always been: when will US consumer spending recover?
Towards that end, I’ve been concentrating on the bottom 80% as they have been hit the hardest by unemployment and have less savings to make up the income shortfall. However, two articles have made me question that approach:
1) Bank of America credit card spending via Zerohedge show that higher income consumer spendign has taken a bigger hit and is recovering slower than lower income consumers. Keep in mind that rent/mortages is usually not paid by credit card, nor are many other utilities, so most of the CC spending is Food and discretioanry.
http://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/low%20income.jpg
2) Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog claims that the top 10% account for 50% of all consumer spending. When you factor in new cars, vacations, etc., I could see how this could be true (although doesn’t explciity provide direct evidence of this).
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/05/consumer-spending-will-not-rebound.html
Monthly data on cosumption by income level is hard to find…
So the fuck what?
Take a look at this slide from Softbank’s (“We love WeWork!”) earnings presentation today, explaining how the coronavirus was affecting their unicorns:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/softbank unicorns 4.jpg
This has to become a MEME
I am an entrepreneur. After carefully studying market trends, I have learned that niggers love crack and can’t get enough of it. I would like to set up shop selling crack to niggers but need to raise funds. Would you be interested in participating in a convertible bond offering to help this underserved community get the crack they crave?
Housing starts and Powell tomorrow morning. Builders set-up to be punished badly. I’ll light a candle for our host.
The initial rebound will be pent-up demand resulting in wave or impulse. Beyond that there is major damage to be digested here.
Economic data don’t matter anymore. There are now 7-9 trillions of fresh usd with leverage given by Powell for banks and funds to buy stocks.
Think about all those people with paychecks and incentive money but unable to spend it. And among businessmen, there are winners and looser, a lot of easy money for some. And those who want to get away from it all.
Exactly, Niggers are flush with cash but the supply chain for crack has broken down. I am appealing to the Treasury to give me a small business loan to help me set up shop so niggers get the crack they need.
Ask to joos, they’ll help you
rw, if you are short on money, you really need to tell your mom that she has to put in more time. Those dicks don’t suck themselves.
Possible extension of PPP loans to 24 weeks is significant. At least for the honest businesses, restaurants, sitting on hundreds of thousands that looked like they weren’t going to be able to use.
The direction I think this is going is that deaths will continue to rise, but they will paper over it, feed into the “victims” of social distancing / quarantine story line. A few hundred thousand deaths, that’s not a big deal to brush under the rug. But you get into 2021, we better have some treatments or a vaccine or it will get ugly.
If the virus itself does not give you enough herd immunity what makes you think the vaccine will do, Here in New York it ran rampant long before the lockdown; done with it.
tjnyt, two questions you can’t answer:
1) What percent of the population needs to have immunity from SARS-CoV-2 to have herd immunity?
2) What perent of New Yorkers have been infected?
‘merica,
Business are struggling becuase to get the loan forgiven, 75% of it must be spent on employment. The purpose was so that workers aren’t laid off.
oo if you extend it it, then instead of 4 workes for 6 weeks, the load will pay for 1 worker for 24 weeks, which defeats the purpose. However, given that Congress doesn’t really give a shit about workers, I’m sure they will make this more friendly to business owners and less friendly to workers. They’ll extend it for sue, and maybe even reduce the percentage that must be paid to workers because business owners tend to be much wealthier thatn than their workers.