iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,344 Blog Posts

HERE ARE TWO WAYS TO PLAY THE COMPLETE AND UTTER DESTRUCTION OF CRUDE

WYOMING HEAVY ASPHALT SOUR CRUDE BTFO, ETERNALLY. These land-locked fuckers are fucked for good. All of their crude is worthless, because to pipe that crude in — it costs at least $7 per barrel. If we’re talking about trucking it, forget about it. This is why WYOMING SOUR trades at a NEGATIVE value.

So who wins?

Overseas in the Brent market — foreign producers are storing crude in tankers.

I am long FRO. Other plays include EURN, STNG, and NAT.

Here in the states, crude is sent to refiners. Those refiners are now GODS and can pretty much set prices. If they don’t like it, fuck off and die. Refining margins had collapsed until recently and have since SOARED from $2 crack to $9. I suspect these margins might hold for some time, as domestic producers get BTFO until their crude is selling for $00.00.

My refiner positions are DK and HFC.

Other plays include VLO, PBF and MPC.

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31 comments

  1. tjnyt

    If DJT & VP come to an agreement and COVID casualties remain under a few thousand, WS will fly.

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  2. lawbroker

    Can someone explain why plunging crude prices coupled with lower demand is a positive for refiners?

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    • numbersgame

      If the price of the raw materials (crude oil) + labor fall faster than the price of the end products (gasolie, etc.).

      Example (didn’t check these numbers)
      Buy Oil: $60 -> $20
      Sell Gasoline $3 -> $2

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    • i_am_nemo

      I was wondering the same thing. Refining is a just in time type of business. There is low demand for various fuels right now. Also, It may be uneconomic to refine. Crude is refined into many products e.g. jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, bunker oil. You can’t refine just to produce one product.

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    • heckler

      He’s saying they get to demand their own prices

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  3. heckler

    Fly is a fucking oil man

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  4. heckler

    Numbers’ prize possession TLT fails breakout fades to red. Stocks have been trading in tandem lately. I think Ferd was right this bounce is to punish late shorts and dudes on WSB who threw done $200k on SPY puts.

    Markets are dislocated and FUCKED right now. Average Tuesday move this month is like 4% either way. I say down tomorrow

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  5. it is showtime

    Lqd

    being held in place
    that means
    clear until next shock
    headline

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    • heckler

      Fuck me showtime is bullish???

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      • numbersgame

        Gartman indicator?

        Everytime he posted “I just named a number stocks can’t hit,” my shorts lost money.

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        • heckler

          He is wrong 98% of the time and he just turned bullish bro

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          • numbersgame

            Search for “Gartman indicator” and you’ll get my meaning

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          • it is showtime

            just sending signals to the riggers
            that I can trade the in-between

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        • it is showtime

          Numbers

          That’s a fallacious interpretation.
          I was racing fed proxies to the end of the leg.
          Which was an endgame leg with design, which I correctly stated

          If you really believe I was posting:
          “You can’t get higher”
          With the belief of predictive success,
          You have weaknesses in that analytical brain of yours

          Ever fucking read the story of
          John Henry?
          Hitting the steel rails to beat the machine?
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Henry_(folklore)

          jesusHchrist

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          • numbersgame

            I was in agrrement with you that the market was vastly overpriced (pre-Corona). However, when I named a target that I ddin’t think the amrket could reach, it was *because I didn’t think it coudl be reached* (even when I was wrong).

            So what exactly was your reasoning behind your numerous “naming a number you can’t reach posts”?

            PS, I am familair with John Henry He died out of ego. There was no noble cause; it was a pointless death (of a fictional character).

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  6. numbersgame

    I don’t think Geffen was being genuine and didn’t really mean to brag when he tweeted from hi mega yacht, wishign peoepl good lcuk with the virus.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/billionaire-david-geffen-incites-social-media-riot-after-posting-photos-quarantined-his-590

    Simirlarly, I think that Wilbur Ross really didn’t understand why governemetn workers were having trouble during the shutdown:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-understand-federal-workers/story?id=60595988

    Still, their complete ignorance of how workign Americans live is the reason why you shouldn’t put anybody in *any* public office – especailly Congress and Cabinet positons – that wasn’t born in the bottom 80%.

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    • purdy

      I dunno. The Romans required that one be a millionaire already in order to become a senator (the richest and most powerful group in the empire), while most of our pols in the 21st century US enter modest and become millionaires by serving the already-elite. And note that the Romans never came close to the level of wealth concentration that our elite have achieved using their pawns.

      Perhaps it is better cover for the people who are at the very top in money and power to have former plebs selling their theft than to have a face that came from parentage at the top. Arguably, Trump is a more honest representative of the current thieves than was the smooth-talking Obama.

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      • numbersgame

        I think politics is a corrupting profession. That’s why term limits are so important. Ideals (on both the left and the right) give way to “the way things have alwasy been done” and prok barrel projects.

        Even with bodies such as the Seante and House, a very small group holds all the power.

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        • peaches

          If I happen to die worth ten million bucks… Id never let my son touch that shit. Lest he grow up with no skills and actually think he’s any better than the welfare bums drinking cheap beer.

          Most of the people in charge of this country wouldn’t last 2 weeks as a busboy or waiter before getting fired for being useless and spilling coffee on customers.

          Elon Musk would be one of the richest people in America even if the tax rate was 99%.

          And Jared Kushner would be a bar mitzvah DJ.

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      • peaches

        You might have a point there.

        But… “Self made” billionaires only.

        Otherwise you’re just a chump with no skills trying to lower interest rates so your hoard of inheritance goes up in value.

        Or cutting taxes because God knows nobody who inherits 100 million knows how to actually make money.

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  7. itsgold

    crazy volatility

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  8. alty

    Doesn’t the market know the world is ending? Jeez!

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  9. peaches

    I bought DUST only because UGLD didn’t go anywhere. It worked, but this market is getting boring. Looking at ERY and DWT, but too many leveraged ETFs are blowing up when the market rallies.

    OILU

    WTID

    Almost makes me want to be 19 trading $2000 again.

    On a different note my 401k people haven’t answered the phone in 2 weeks. Best move ever choosing the cash equivalent fund. The boomer co-workers aren’t too happy.

    I wanna rollover so I can buy risky garbage in my IRA.

    They wanna get out to save their marriage.

    I’m almost starting to feel bad for all these conservative idiots who missed out on 09-16 cuz a black mane as driving the bus… And just handed over 3 years of gains to someone who knows they can place a trade on their phone.

    That clown fucked them hard.

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  10. numbersgame

    Fly, the tanker plays are a great idea – thanks.

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