The Dow rose by 700 today and shorts who went into today got their fucking dicks cut off for them. It was ugly, brutal, and nothing can save them ever.
Ironically, I was long and betting for a continuation of the rally and got fucking FLOGGED and beaten around the face today. I had just one solid intra day trade, long APRN, and that’s it. Other than that, totally fucked trading day for me.
(VTR -7.7%)
(AIV -2.6%)
(NMIH -16.4%)
(NMIH -10.5%)
(BHR -23%)
BHR -wash
(NYMT -15.7%)
(ORC -11.5%)
FAS – wash
(RNG -4.5%)
APRN +8.5%
SOXL +0.6%
(DRIP -7.5%)
I got HARD FORKED long, short, every which way but loose. I did find some respite deep inside of the JELLY JAR, as I am long SEVERAL old man stocks of high esteem. SJM ripped, GIS ripped. Pretty much anything paying a solid dividend that wasn’t a REIT did great. Since we’re in a ZERO INTEREST RATE environ, I expect MULTIPLE EXPANSION to continue.
I closed out the session 45% cash, up a fuckload for the first quarter, +102% to be exact, and I pretty much shit on all other traders in my realm. I am presently long refiners, a tanker, and all old man stocks. After a few solid wins, I will resume my swashbuckling across this market place and catch SEVERAL 100% winners, as I am famous and widely known for doing so.
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The bear thesis
remains on trump takedown
I dont believe
the direction of the insiders, or the echelon, or whoever.
would be to reelect trump. moving indexes back up, would reelect trump. directly.
sorry:
plus oil
lol
there is no echelon dude. human beings… especially greedy ones who want to abuse power and oppress the masses… don’t have the ability to form groups and work as a team, in secret, for very long.
the reality is the uber wealthy don’t need to invest their entire net worth into stocks. TLT up QQQ down time to rebalance etc. or worst case scenario, get a loan at stupid low rates and buy more. its also perfectly natural for them to eventually come together out of mutual interest and get the government to sign a central bank into existence, which will provide liquidity… for them… when necessary.
working class fools save up money and dump their life savings into ONE stock on ONE day, usually at the tail end of a bull market because they see everyone else making money… then a few months later they pull it out because of fear after a 40% drop… then spend the rest of their lives telling everyone that stocks are a scam and the world is about to end. its the story every drunk boomer told me growing up.
most of them have blocked my cell phone by now because they can’t stand getting screenshots of my portfolio and i’m too much of an asshole to ever stop rubbing it in their face that my dad came here stole their jobs and now im stealing their money.
no reptilian overlords necessary.
Weird flex…
you’ll understand after we’re done raping and pillaging. its the circle of life dawg.
The Diarrhea Czar takes his responsibilities serious folks. We are so honored to be in his benevolent presence.
this one gets it!
You’re the one going tinfoil.
From 2014ish to 2020, there was a commandeering of
stock indexes. Most evident in intraday reversals and
savior pivots. (and ceaseless multimonth endgame legs)
My post, was merely, glancing at the chessboard.
You. Fuck. Trump gets reelected if indexes come back.
Trump gets dispensed if bear market remains.
CBs and general globalist powers are obviously
Aware of the chessboard. Wtf you freaking about?
Not to be a cynic, but hasn’t it always been manipulated?
the only useful information on zerohedge is the counter telling us how many idiots are reading today
Absolutely not true.
I read it all the time. Like all “news”, you have to filter it and strain out the trash and hyperbole.
For example, you can find the dat behind this article on gov’t sites, but it’s nice to have someoen else do it with commentary
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/flood-begins-treasury-sell-over-quarter-trillion-bills-48-hours
ok, seriously asking… how does this information help me/you make money this week? honestly trying to learn.
the government is inflating away the money supply at a record pace. Bloomberg notification told me this on my phone. Hedge funds levered up 100:1 have some more breathing room
so GLD hits $200… next year.
for me, all that site does is scare me into cash.
or am i missing something here with Tbills?
This week? Maybe not so much in this case. But stuff like this helps in understanding the sytem.
Another example was on Fly’s Mortgage bond play. Last week, i read (in ZeroHedge) that GinnieMae wanted to help Mortgage servicesre (explaing why they didn’t crash on Friday), and today I pointed out an article that explained how thr FED buying bonds was having negative effective on mortgae servicesr – something I wouldn’t ahve expected.
Also, ZeroHedge is alway the *first* website to post articles when it comes to FED action. That is immediately beneficial.
Do you speaka da englesh?
??????
Showtime sold his railroad stocks at the bottom in 1931 and has been posting for the end of the world on this blog ever since.
Speaking of the railroad stocks, the Credit Mobilier scandal is one of my favorite scandals. There were so many interesting politicians involved.
The radio and “motor car” stocks (the tech bubble of the roaring 20s) were mostly the ones that didn’t survive.
Capitalism!
I mentioned about sensing fear exhaustion and closing my main short position at 6PM yesterday. Seems like the sellers are plenty exhausted.
But fear will return sooner or later. I just don’t feel like re-shorting quite yet.
what are you shorting?
ES and RTY (Russ 2000) futures for purely directional bets.
Very rarely do I use my IRA acct for the 3x sector ETFs.
what sort of leverage does one acquire with futures? who is your broker?
I usually use AMP but still keep Interactive Brokers (because their Excel APIs are useful for some specific algo-trades that I do).
AMP allows you to trade above 100x (yes, one hunnid) leverage (i.e., to blow up your acct in warp speed if you are that crazy) and their rates are competitive for high volume traders.
As heckler (I believe) mentioned, CA has completed 25k tests, with 65k outstanding.
*It has been over 48 hours since CA has updated their numbers.*
It was the weekend, right?
Wrong They have updated everyday since March 4 – including weekends. At least some of the counties (such as LA) hve updates, but not sure what the deal is overall.
CA, is the leader in our nation in their response. Started with Santa Clara County health official. She is the one of the few government officials who both does math and has balls regarding this pandemic.
CA was the second state with a major outbreak, so that is the only reason they are ahead of others in action. Their biggest issue is that they are still behind in testing by several orders of magnitude. Considering that this is still the major ball that the US as a nation has dropped, that’s not the kind of leadership you want.
Within the last hour, they just released their latest numbers. the headline numbers look like good news:
5763 positive (2 pm 3/29), vs 4643 (2pm, 3/27: 2 days earlier)
an increase of 24% (2 days)
However, look at the test volume:
27,521 results vs 25,192 previously
an increase of only 8% (2 days)
As a reminder, CA has a popualtion of 39.5 Million.
A proper analysis shows just how bad they are doing in this department:
4643 / 25192 = 18.4% postiive rate
(5763-4643) / (27521-25192) = 48.1%!!
As a reminder, NY had about a 20% positive rate last I checked, and South Koera had a 3% positive rate. This is an indication that CA is only testing their most critical patients, which isn’t a surprise sicen this is **official policy** in counties such as LA due to the test kit shortage.
Also, an undercount can only mask the numebr of infections, but it likely won’t mask the number of deaths, so I expect the death rate in CA to reach well above the number of confirmed cases, probably in the 5-10% range. Also, exepct CA to have a much higher hospitalization rate that other state for the same reason.
You have to take heroes where you can find them in this. Compare Santa Clara county’s action to the new Dem hero, Cuomo’s, pathetic inaction followed by his MSM-lauded whining when the results of his incompetence became manifest.
Agree that Cuomo was just as incompetant as Trump. He was slow to act and now is whining because FEMA thinks that the ventilators should be shared by all the states instead of just goign to the first state to become a COVID-19 Superfund site.
On an off-topic note, since you like to bust my chops when I make actual market calls:
*** How’s that NQ short working for ya? ***
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/30/land-locked-american-crude-literally-worthless-now/#comment-569114
The different demos and other factors (e.g., climate and population density) make it hard to draw direct comparisons.
The population density of NYC is far higher than those of the runner-ups (Chciago and San Fran).
I wouldn’t defend Cuomo but he was at least slightly more pro-active than, say, DeSantis.
The only clear winners on the world stage are Merkel and Scott Morrison.
How’s your /nq call working out? I covered the moment you agreed with me.
And yes, tweaking you is a guilty (and too easy) pleasure.
I actually went long the moment you went short and closed it at the end of the day for a nice gain 3x gain.
Thanks for asking!
FWIW, I’m willing to go increasingly net short if the Russell goes above 1160 without any pullback in the next 48 hours.
The markets are still defining their respective trading ranges while baking in the consequences of prolonged lockdowns/shut-downs, foreign and domestic.
for whatever reason i couldn’t reply to your post above about zero hedge. i stand corrected.
Do you have any critical thinking,
Of your own,
Whatsoever?
why you need some?
brosef… i literally grew up watching you be wrong for a decade on this website.
Another important number in that report is the 56,000 pending tests… Newsom said the ICU cases went up from 200 to 670 in 2 days. He also stated Friday that they had 4,000 suspected Covid cases in ICU that they were awaiting tests for. I think CA is in just as bad a situation as NY and i think the failure in testing is probably making the containment pretty bad. People in CA are waiting 6-10 days to get results.. Not sure what the deal is with there testing vendors but i haven’t heard of any other states having this much lag. They only had 10,000 pending cases last Monday
Cases schmaces. Count deaths, they’re much more definitive. Total ACTUAL number of infections is probably on the order of 500 to 1000 times the number of total deaths reported. That’s my own estimate, based on data I’m seeing and assumptions like: 1) Today’s deaths were infected on average 12 days ago (probably conservative) 2) Today’s total deaths represent the total infected 12 days ago 3) Infections and/or deaths double roughly every four days when not checked (observed in the data) 4) Death rate is around 1% (which I believe history will show is on the high side, except where hospital overload causes it to increase). So for NY State, using 3/31 AM numbers so far of 1342 deaths (reference: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), I think there are actually 1.2MM total NY State infections. Yeah. Million.
True that Deaths are more important (as I said in my comment), but case nummbers are important in palces that measure: “Today’s deaths were infected on average 12 days ago”. Cases are a current inidcator.
Case in point: in two weeks, confirmed positives have gone up 17% in South korea, while deaths have doubled. Interestingly, despite heavy testing, South Korea has still hit the 1-2% overall death rate for confirmed cases.
B/c of insufficient testing our infection curves are understating the problem, which is already ahead of the world. MAGA
COVID has already showed that America is among the least equipped developed countries to handle a major public health crisis.
Even better, it will expose not only how poor the average Americans really are but also the waste and the gross inhumanity of the for-profit mass-incarceration prison-governmental complex (homage to Ike’s military-industrial complex).
you think they’ll notice this time? i bet ill be 65, nigeria will have a higher gdp/capita than us and these people will still think we’re on top of the world
The silver lining is that “these people” will be replaced by some better ones who will finally address the structural problems that will sink the Titanic given the status quo.
That remains my long-term project.
By “addressing” I mean like being honest to the grandpas and grandmas that they won’t get their free supplies of boner pills anymore and they will get automatically euthanized when it costs too much to keep them alive.
Shit like that. “Hard choices” to borrow one of Mrs. Clinton’s book titles.
Take a lap Gilligan.
Fly is this totally an oatmeal reference?
Totally oatmeal from Romania.
Extremely low fatalities in India and Mexico, form COVID19 baffles me, there are some parallels. How do you contrast Mexico with neighbor CA regards to pandemic?
Low testing rates + people used to hard life = “What virus?”
Living paycheck to paycheck in America =
“guess I’ll have to run my credit card up a bit more so that I can keep my $100+/month high-speed data package”
Living paycheck to paycheck in India and Mexico (or much of Africa, where confirmed infections are also low) =
“I hope my family has enough for a rice/corn this month”
By all estimates, ***several thousand children die every day*** in India from starvation.
More of impoverished die from “colds” than well-fed. This seems like a rich man’s virus.
Most definitely…was.
The first American that it hit were those that were interantional travelers and/or cruise ship passengers, then thier neighbors.
Of course, like all pain expereinced by the rich, it was soon socialized so that the poor was impacted the most (lack of healtrh insurance, can’t work from home, industies most hit by work stoppage, less doctors per capita, etc.).
And of course, that doesn’t count the part about socialising the capital gains losses from stocks.
Witness the power of ZeroHedge (with help)
Q: How does social distancing help and what is the *quantatative* effect if we delay in enacting socail distanceing policies?
A: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/math-behind-social-distancing
Q: How is the $2T Baby Boomer Bill (that Millenials will pay for) distributed?
A: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/anatomy-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-bill
Follow-up- Q: Wait, but I head that it would be $4T extra with the help of the FED?
A: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-turn-454-billion-45-trillion-visualizing-feds-multi-trillion-dollar-helicopter-credit
The .2 percenters are delighted when generational, racial, gender, etc, politics distract simpletons (ah hem) from the theft that they engineer with legislation like the above.
Divide and conquer. The powerful play it very well.
I don’t think that they are necessarily any more sensible than most of us but they have money, which they beat us over the head with.
It doesn’t help that those economically at the bottom tend to be idiots
My FAZ postions are up 10% from when I bought them
Jo Stafford?? You are an old turd. Try Helen Forrest next time – my fav. Or June Christy if you like the west coast sound.