April marks 1 year since we started working on Exodus 2.0, an exponentially massive project that I thought could never get done. IT estimates were anywhere from 1yr to 2yr the annual revenues of the platform and the MILLION lines of code, more than the total beachfront of the coast of California, seemed like a task that was insurmountable. Like aways, fate reached out to me and made it happen.
I was updated today on the progress and have been micro-managing the project from day 1, presently using the services of some trustworthy people in Germany, I found a new partner to help me take Exodus into the next phase of its evolution.
All data will stream, this includes our overbought/oversold algorithms, industry data, valuation data etc. We’ll have tangible price target estimates based on historical valuation data and future sales/earnings running in real time. The Pelican Room, which is probably the most important feature to upgrade, will be slack-like, giving users the ability to upload images etc. User profile pages will come with alert settings, users to follow, baskets to follow, screens to follow — and an array of things one would expect from a project Le Fly put his heart and soul into.
Presently, and due to the stock market refugees coming to iBankCoin and Exodus, I am overloaded with beta trial requests, which can be requested at Stocklabs — presently being graced with our newswire. I suspect completion by mid-May and beta trials around the same time with a full blown lunch by Summer.
Here are some pics of the new features. My favorite new feature is the OBOS for intra-day, which uses my mean reversion algorithms, but modified for day trading. So far, so good.
New Market overview page will look something like this. We have our own indices now (LC =large cap, MC= midcap)
Share buybacks now measured, along with innumerable data points — revs, eps, FCF, EBITDA etc.
Real time algos provides RT insights into stock performance, based on the history of a stock, over a determined time frame. For example, AAPL has an algorithmic score of 3.45 out of 5 and in its history this has translated into a 1.6% return within 5 days over 300 data points.
This is our upgraded seasonality tool, which now measures months, days of the week, and hours. This is AAPL from 3/1/20 thru now. You can see the best times to buy and sell AAPL, or any stock, industry, sector, market, using this tool.
The OBOS (overbought/oversold) algorithm applied using 15min tick data, attempts to provide mean reversion, actionable, trades on an intra day scale. This is actual data for AAPL. We will upgrade this to have better user interface to clearly define the data and also make it screenable.
Things on the front burner include an Advanced Algorithm which will score stocks on a longer time frame so you can see what has been strong on say a monthly scale. Also, we have a volume alert tool that takes volume of a stock and pro-rates it by the minutes to provide alerts. If volume spikes on a 1min, 5min, 15min, 30min scale, you’ll know about. We can couple keyword searches, such as “COVID-19” with the volume tool in order to be a degenerate.
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We need one screen for simpletons.
Looking forward to trying out the :”Costum” screens 🙂
Seriously speakign ii looks pretty in-depth. In tersm of the statistics and historical ratios/perforamcne etc., will it be clear waht time frames you are using? For example, anyoen looking at 10 year time frames (suprisingly common) would have no idea on what is to come in February.
What you need is a Bloomberg terminal.
I have been looking for historical data of options on the most common futures (e.g., CL and ES) for more than a decade with no success.
Why are you trading options on futures? I’ve never traded those.
I would assume that ETF (SPY) options have much more liquidity, which is a huge advantage for retail investors as they don’t get ripped off because of the spread.
Two main reasons:
1. The 60/40 rule is a major tax shield.
2. The bid-ask spreads are reasonably tolerable even during the wee hours, thus allowing me to trade on significant ECB announcements and European economic data.
Ok, that makes sense.
Some very sad news: a baby has died of COVID-19 in Illinois. This is the first case of an infant death (another difference between this and the Flu, albeit a postive one). I have nothing but condolences for anyone that loses a young child. Truly heart breaking, and much different than the death of a sick elderly person.
Also, a 25-yo has died in california. His only pre-existing complications or risk factor was living in the USA: he died at home, not in the hosipital on a ventialtor.
The diseiase doesn’t kill fast, so I expect the news to come out that he was sick for several days, but was unable to get a test so just assumed that it was the flu. On the positive size, maybe this will encourage young peopel to flaten the curve.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/25-year-old-california-man-no-underlying-conditions-dies-covid-19
But still a Democrap hoax:
https://popculture.com/trending/2020/03/28/coronavirus-pandemic-21-year-old-tests-positive-online-post-bragging-not-social-distancing/
Rural ares think they are (figuratively) immune, but it’s more likely they will have similar infection rates, but with a lag of several weeks or even a month or two, as there is no restriction on interstate travel. Just look how the disease has spread within Europe.
Also, while the survival rate of anyone under 40 is still astronomically high compared to the flu, but that’s just a coarse view. The hospitalization rate is still fairly high (10-20% if I recall), with permamnent lung damage something that is also possible.
To ice the cake, since most of the shithole ex-Confederate states plus the flyover states refused Medicaid expansion, their hospitals are the least able to handle a surge of patients.
So I hope they enjoy having their lungs destroyed before dying.
You know, i do have to side with others that it seems like you are almost *happy* they are dying, which isn’t really mentally healthy…
I can undersatnd that maybe living in the south you have much more personal interactions and reason behind your thinkign, but you’d still be in a better place if you could minimized the effect that the lives of deaths of other have on you.
Personally ,if *somebody* has to die, I’d rather it be old conservatives, than babies bombed into starvation by US-fueled and US-armed war planes in Yemen, but stilll…
I gradually turned into a Malthusian pro-death (as opposed to “pro-life”) advocate as I grew older. The planet is overpopulated and the “old conservatives” do deserve to die–the sooner the better. But, no, I do *not* wish to see babies needlessly die from literal wars and pandemics.
I’ve been unequivocal about the very high costs (of lives and else) of this COVID-19 war of attrition. I do anguish over the deaths of the innocent people.
Last night I was just speaking with a niece in NYC who cried hysterically because one of the neighbors (a kind old lady) at her building just died from it. The fear and the suffering are already very real.
Oh, another thing, the death panels that Palin fretted about over O’care some years ago are upon us. It’s just that the culprit is the “COVID hoax” instead of the ACA:
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/teen-denied-treatment-because-lack
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/spanish-doctors-forced-to-choose-who-to-let-die-from-coronavirus
The “death panel participants” (i.e., medical doctors“) are supposed to let the grandpas and grandmas die first because of the survival odds of the patients.
(laughter) “progressive dropping trite point about US medicine, linking to article about Spanish medicine failing” is a new one, I guess.
You know European countries tend to already have the European medicine you guys insist would be so much better for us right now. That’s kind of where the expression “European Socialized Medicine” comes from.
So how’s that socialized medicine holding up? Well I’m not going to dare guess where the final tally ends up, but as of today if you take the UK, Spain, France, Germany, and Italy (which together make up a country of about the size of the US), they have WAY more cases.
The US will have more cases per capita then Europe.
More deaths (which does count more), too early to tell.
I’ll save my “I told you so” for later.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/uk-can-keep-covid-19-deaths-below-20000-says-medical-director
… At the daily press conference on Covid-19 at Downing Street, Prof Stephen Powis (UK’s Acting “COVID Czar” since their official COVID Czar had to self-isolate because of his close contacts with BoJo) said: “If we can keep deaths below 20,000 we will have done very well in this epidemic.”
Some dude who said he was a physician in NYC (granted he did *not* say he was licensed) gave a truly retarded prediction of no more than 2000 US COVID deaths just one week ago on this site.
CNN is showing 2010 deaths right now (fake news right?).
Wow, thanks for providing us with an update on how you think some dude got it wrong in the future according to cnn.
You’re welcome.
But the purpose of that comment was not to update but to highlight the very low IQ scores of people like you and him.
Lol, so there was a purpose to that comment? Are you okay?
Yup, I literally stated the purpose (to which your reply confirmed) and I feel just fine. (Thanks for asking!)
Lol, some dude.
Although I’d pegg it not as low IQ, but utter ignorance and a common American belief in their utter superiority vs seeing where the numbers are headed.
See the comment aboveon Europe vs USA as another example
I use “low IQ” these days as a catch-all snide/Trumpism since he uses it whenever he is lazy or lacks better insults.
A little update about the California case count I’ve been tracking which I don’t think the market is pricing in… the pending test count stayed fairly flat at 65k with only 25k tests processed.. but the tests that were processed since yesterday came back 48% positive. As I said before Newsom said there were 4000 people in ICU’s that were suspected Covid awaiting test results and today 370 that were in ICU that had tested positive. That’s a factor of 10 and if you apply the 65k awaiting results to the 48% positive rate you have New York of the west. The commentary in the market had been that California had seemed to isolate early enough and they are flattening the curve. I don’t think that’s the case at all and I think this delay in testing is making the situation worse as people don’t know so they aren’t isolating properly. The overall market isn’t seeing this and we should all know the situation in California is a lot more grim than the general population is aware. Good luck next week and be careful with your investments.
How many were paid by soros…i mean homeless
If 48% tested came back positive then it begs a few questions. Positive for antibodies or the active virus? Also, what demographic are they testing? Is it sick people who show symptoms or general population?
Two more examples of “America is way too awesome to have such high numbers.”
Testing in California was so low, you erally think they have the resources to test homeless peoeple that are just sneezing?
California:
– 1st palce to have a baby of COVID-19
– some 25 yo old died IN HIS HOME
– soem 18 yo died BEUCASE HE WAS REFUSED CARE initially.
Yup, no COVID provlem there, jackasses.
Well, the baby died in Illinois, but they are behind as well.
The problem is that Social Distanceing and lockdowns are the only thing that can stop a contagious disesease with asymptomatic infectors and no vaccine. However, the US is too much of an entilted society to actually do anythign like that until its too late.
“Don’t thread on me, I’d rather get the virus.”
Sifting through the vitriol is growing tiresome.
Does the comment platform have this feature – Instead of censoring or banning – setting a limit of 2 posts per thread?
I sometimes wonder if it’s the same retard talking to himself
I sometimes wonder if it’s the same retard who keeps using the words idiot and retard interchangeably because your vocabulary for lobbing low-quality insults is extremely limited.
Censoring, banning, setting limits are all ineffective deterrence because it takes only 20 seconds to make a new login and only 3 seconds to generate another IP address.
And speaking of vitriol, I forgot to mention that your Fuhrer just recently gave a medal to the king of vitriol Mr. Limpbaugh [sic] himself.
So perhaps quit being a whiny little bitch about vitriol when this country has been thriving on hate for 400 years and counting?
4 more years you little beta male faggot!
Ahh, you got me! Dammit.
I’ll rub your nose in shit next time. Trust. (Homo grin.)
That’s the wolfdaddy I know: always thinking about homosexuals.
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Maybe once you construct a sentence properly and spell properly you will get people to your excellent website. However, you should probably head over to the zerohedge message board as most people here are of above average intelligence and unlikely to fall for your shenanigans.
Hey, we share a mutual disdain for 0hodgepodge. <3
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Since we have so many brilliant epidemiologists here (tjnyt, moosh, discoordinated, Mr. Cain Thaler, just today), why don’t we have a competition where we try to predict the US and Europe’s numbers in the next two weeks?
Any takers?
If it was easy to short the soaring approval ratings of the heads of state (because of the fear factor of the public that gave all of them an initial bump in the face of an epic tragedy), I would do so now:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-trudeau-covid-world-leaders-1.5511464
The only leader I wouldn’t short is Australia’s Scott Morrison (a classic right-winger) of all the lesser known figures, who has been pro-active and showing surprisingly deft responses (politically and policy-wise) all the way. Credit where credit is due.
Also, on Drudge right now:
FAUCI PROJECTS ‘100,000-200,000’ (in red font)
Fauci sounds about right.
3x Bear on Brazil’s Bolsonaro…
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1244025996484980737?s=20
https://www.etf.com/channels/brazil-etfs
The monster that Brazil’s corrupt left-wing created.
Indeud. Corruption is a bi-partisan affair.
I’m in
I bet under 75,000 US Deaths this year and I am willing to go lower for the right price
Virus airborne for 3 hours after a cough from the asymptomatic, yet the feds (and a message from my governor last night) said do NOT wear a mask (or other face covering) unless you feel sick.
Sadly, I think bad numbers are already cooked in. I’ll guess a total of 188,000 dead Americans two weeks from today.
Everyone should wear a mask when out and about.
The variables are uncertain, but it’s simple math. The 188,000 could be too optimistic as ICUs get overwhelmed.
Damn dude that’s a crazy number!
So where are all the hoaxers? All of a sudden, so quiet.
I guess watching Dr. “2000 Deaths” get blown out of the water ***in under a week*** may be finally cluing them in that they have no f**ing idea what is going on.
Looks like the new go-to response to these guys will be pretty short:
Q: “Ok, so how many Americans do you think will die from COVID-19?”
A: “…”
I can’t bet on two weeks because my analysis is focused on longer-term. So far I have profited off both the stock market crash and suckers rally and remember, I’m calling for new lows.
I still think people have no idea what they’re talking about but anyway Numbers throw out your bet man
You’re a horse face pony soldier throw out a number bitch – all a numbersgame anyway
US fatalities have passed my rough estimate of 2k, yesterday I learned with sadness, a long time friend & colleague is in hospital, on a respirator for 2 weeks. Final toll, only time will tell. But I bet it will never be close to anybody on this board’s estimate. So what is it; 2%, 1%, .5%, 0.1%, 0.01, 0.001%?
A recent report in NYT about Dutch scientist’s observation parallels my clinical experience, observed and shared on this board as a licensed physician working in NYC.
“When a handful of Dutch health workers fell ill days after the Netherlands’ first Covid-19 case, it prompted mass screening at two hospitals. What scientists found surprised them.
Some 1,353 hospital staff in Breda and Tilburg, who recently suffered typical winter coughs and sniffles, were tested for the coronavirus. Of those, 86 — or 6.4% — were positive. Barely half had a fever, and the majority reported working while they were mildly ill.
The “unexpected high prevalence” indicated hidden community spread,…”
The death rate percentage is sort of a red herring because their are so many mild cases, and so many undetected cases.
I think the absolute number of deaths (in the US) is the only thing that we will ever know with any degree of certainty. Also, the hoaxers are ignoring the fact that if the governemetn hadn’t acted, then we wouldn’t flatten the curve at all and the death rate (any way you measure it) would be exponentially higher because of the limited capacity of the health care system..
If you want to talk abotu how deadly a disease is, then you need to measure its effects ***without any medical intervention***. Think about HIV/AIDS in the 80s vs today.
As for “hidden community spread”, that has been waht I have been saying for MONTHS.Hospitalization
Since we are all guests in Monsieur Dr. Fly’s salon, after sipping your glass of Yquem, take your pants off. Let’s see what are you holding in your hands, long or short. I am holding a little short.
Raising my glass in a toast to degeneracy & double entendres. Initiated small shorts of the Russell, averaged down thursday & friday. Good day to you sir!
With a population of 1.5 billion people, China’s some 80,000 cases look like a rounding error, says Nigam Shah, an assistant professor of biomedical statistics at Stanford. And India’s claim of some 754 cases probably reflects a severe lack of tests — not that the disease there is still so rare. The positive tests say little about how many people are dying or will die, since most cases are mild.
What should we be watching instead? One possibility is hospitalizations. That idea was put forward by statisticians Jacob Steinhardt, an assistant professor from UC Berkeley, and Steve Yadlowsky, a graduate student at Stanford who specializes in analyzing health care data. They argue that rate of increase in hospitalizations could reflect the growth of the disease without being distorted by changes in the testing rate.
Measuring death rates can eventually track the speed with which Covid-19 is spreading — as deaths represent a fraction of cases. But there’s a lag of some three weeks between infection and death. Hospitalizations give an intermediate point, as Steinhardt and Yadlowsky explain: They estimate that it takes between 11 and 14 days for someone to get sick enough to show up at the hospital. Rates of increase in Covid-19 patients admitted to the ICU can provide additional useful data.
These numbers might not accurately reflect the growth of the disease, however, if the hospitals or their ICUs become overwhelmed, start turning people away or raise the threshold for how sick you have to be to be admitted.
But collecting this kind of data can help prevent that from happening, said Stanford’s Shah.
If we all behave responsibly, he says, then we can turn what would have been a hospital capacity problem into a logistics problem. Once you have a handle on the rate of new Covid-19 patients admitted to hospitals and ICUs, you can start to forecast how many more will arrive in coming days.
Stanford’s Goodman said that he’s confident scientists will eventually collect the data we need to understand this pandemic and how it’s playing out in the United States. “Right now we are floundering in a sea of ignorance about who is infected and the fate of people who are infected,” he says.
Though death rate figures of around 1% have been tossed around, Goodman says he’s skeptical that anyone knows the death rate of this disease since we don’t know the true rates of infection.
And we can’t identify the most vulnerable groups. “There’s this delusion being disseminated that it’s all about age,” he says. He thinks that since 95% of deaths to date in New York City were of people who had pre-existing conditions, this is the bigger risk factor. But since age is a risk factor for many of those conditions, the two are correlated.
He could figure it out if he could get data on pre-existi
Go for a walk, friendo
I was going for “verbosity isn’t a synonym for insightfulness” but your reply wins.
We’ll never get good numbers from China because they are liars. I had posted a link about 8,000,000 cell phones users tha had goen offline i nChina in one comapny. We’ll see how many come back, which will give usa better idea of the reall toll there.
As for India, Africa, etc., these regiosn already ahve lots of deadly diseases, weak health care systems, issues with food security, etc. We’ll probbably never know the tre numbers there, either.
I do think hopsitalization is a good metric, and it’s one that I’ve been monitoring. It’s runnign around 20% in LA among all age groups, so that gives an indication of the undercounting of actual cases there.
Steven Goodman (” MD, MHS, PhD is Associate Dean of Clinical and Translational Research and Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health, and Medicine” )
***is wrong***,
just like the Noble prize winner you quoted last time.
His theory that “pre-existing conditions..is the bigger risk factor (than age)” is refuted by the low death rate among children compared to other diseases. This is why most other in the medical community DO consider age a bigger factor.
Under 4000 dead in China? Lying commie bastards.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/more-evidence-china-lying-number-urns-more-double-reported-coronavirus-deaths
Yet even given the obvious, the establishment (press, ivory towers, White House, WHO, etc.) continue to spread the lie that China contained the virus and handled it well, just so that they have something to point to as a ray of hope.
Simirlarly, now that Japan has formally postponed the Olympics, I expect their *reported* cases to accelerate towards reality.
Watched some of the ChartSummit yesterday. Seemed most were cautious but bullish, many expecting a retest of the lows. I personally think there will be another big flush below recent lows (to 1900-2000 SPX) to scare out those that think they survived the big one.
Ultimately though the market is going to look beyond the current crisis sooner than we are able to. there will be a major buying opportunity in late spring and summer for those that don’t assume the world is ending
It will be closer to the early fall season.
These wipeouts take 6-7 months to cure,
\
and this one started in mid-February.
So we are looking at a mid-August to
mid-September time frame, marked by
a massacre down-day like March 9, 2009.
More or less my thoughts. Depending on how long they keep us locked down.
Also depends on how strong the second wave gone look like.
“virus sets the timeline”
I think the market wants to see if 2000 holds. Could go to 1700 (-50%) if this pandemic is continued to be handled poorly by the general public, Trump, and the other hoaxers.
If we are speakign econmically, then the worst case scenario has to do with finacial contagion (similar to 2007-2009). Most people (includign myself) do not have good insight int othe odds of this due the opaqueness of the financial system. However, the way the Treasury and othe bonds markets were behaving before the FED stepped in last Sudnay was a major warning sign that things could be worse than they appear.
So now we have COVID-19. There is an obvious compromise between two bad choices:
1) Restrain economic activity
2) Accept a higher death toll of Boomers
Unlike most political decisiosn, both of these are bad for the 1% and for the voters Trump needs to win (suburban upper middle-class and the elderly), so it’s difficult to predict which way he’ll go. Especailly with his medical staff’s opposing postion, Trump will most defintely take the blame for any high death toll. And of course, Trumps’s interan calcualtion of waht gives him his best cahnce at winning in November is the only thing that amtters to matters to him.
The probelm with Option 1 is that this could easily trigger a recessionary feedback cycle. The FED is out of ammo, and Congress can be slow to act. Also it is VERY difficult to predict the long-term effects of the massive deficit and the FED’s baalloing balacne sheet, but needless to say they won’t be good (particualrly 5-10 years down the road). At this point, I’ll repeat something I’ve been saying for 10 years: if the econmy (was) so good, why are interst rates still dropping? The next bull market won’t have this tail-wind, so may be notably shorter than expected.
It is hard to say whther Optino 2 woudl be better or worse for Trump’s re-election, but it would undoubtedly be better for the US economy. No question. Of course, it is more of a moral issue, and Trump has no morals. However, due to the fear-factor, this may not be a better short decsion for the stock market..
Two unknows: an early vaccine. Highly unlikely, based on what all the medical experst are saying. Also even thoguh we got a quick vaccine for H1N1, I’ve read that was partly due to the fact that it was very simialr to other flu variants.
I think the only thing that could prevent us from retesting the lows is positive results from treatement trials such as Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine. THis was applied to patients in NYC last Tuesday, s we’ll probably have a good feel for that by the end of the week .
omg i need all of this