Bad day for me. Lots of swings and intermittent pauses that threw me off. I am at my best during periods of volatility. My bet was for a continuation of the rally, just for the opening tick and I planned to reverse and sell short. Nothing worked out as I planned. Instead, I took losses early, double down on three names, went short oil only to make 0.4%, and then allocate funds into several old man stocks (which did good), only to finally get BOGGED long FAS.
I’m only down 40 cents from my basis, but it is an uneasy feeling holding this shit into the weekend.
The market looked like it wanted to close higher, reducing losses to just 300 by 3:30pm and then the fucking shit storm hit and the sell orders steamed into the bell, pressing markets towards the lows — down more than 900.
I ended the day with 30% cash and overweight 3 little bullshit mortgage plays, a sundry of REITs, some consumer staples and also some FAS. You can say I am HOOKED.
I had an superb week, but admittedly leaving off on a down day makes me both angry and confused a little. Hopefully I can get back into the swing of things next week. My sense of course is for a retesting of the lows. THAT IS MY THESIS. The fact I am long now only speaks to the levels of greed inside of my bones. I’m the guy looking for one last beer before the bar closes. That guy never gets laid and often crashes his car and dies in a fucking fire.
First order of business coming Monday, if I am wrong — I clean it all out and start fresh.
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Yes, “Markets Collapse in Final Thirty Minutes of Trade to Close Down Almost a Thousand” but is anyone surprised?
If the US death toll continues to double every 3 days or so, we will have more COVID casualties than all the deaths on 9/11 plus Katrina combined a week from now.
To call you a complete retard is an insult to all retards.
Ahaha. I’m so pwn’d. :-{
I’m really enjoying this Trump bear market. We’ve got to him 4 more years.
But really, the current retard in the White House is far more entertaining the the last retard who gave us 9/11+Katrina.
How about the magic retard, whose son you could be, if he and Michael had had a son .
That’s a good one. Upvote worthy.
But wrong dude–I am the son of Rosie O’Donnell and Ellen DeGeneres–which means I am far less retarded than y’all trailer park inbreds.
You want to know pain. Check out MORL & MRRL. UBS exotic instruments of mass destruction.
holy shit. I wonder why these fine assets haven’t been bought up in this new coronavirus bull market? Anyone willing to be this is no different than the common cold should pick up an assload of these and claim their 6000% return in a few weeks when everything comes back to normal.
What is the underlying for this? is there an index of REITs that have been fucked this hard?
hope that wasn’t in your portfolio dude.
Nope, Ive’ been all in cash for few weeks. Break even for the past trading year. There are few more that could be delisted UWT, OILU, WTIU, PTMN, NTG
F.O.M.O started to tempt me the last few days , but this environment is too unpredictable. I’m sitting this out unless the market goes ridiculously low. I need to preserve the principle. I’m not putting retirement into jeopardy.
got fucked with WTID recently. Monday morning oil was down a fuckload and WTID I picked up Friday afternoon was broken.
These products were designed to be traded with other people’s money.
The ETF manager gets a margin call, I time the reversal perfectly and instead of an 18% return I get a dead ETF.
Alas, they reserve the right to rape us in the prospectus.
https://towardsdatascience.com/the-xiv-meltdown-1b0608110b9f
Happened to fly in the archives.
The VIX may very well rocket above 100 some time in April as the rising US COVID stats accelerate.
Hey Narcyst,
You did see the CDC ( a non governmental entity by the way ) press conference
yesterday where the wunderkinds owned up to being incredibly wrong…. seems the data was flawed. Let’s kill the economy without hard evidence, I’m starting to think it was intentional.
so we don’t need like 9000000 ventilators? cough drops should do it?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/03/27/cdc-us-has-jumped-to-a-level-3-travel-health-notice/#4ab523084140
this CDC?
this CDC seems to be bugging out still
how are you getting a steady supply of mushrooms during quarantine braah?
https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/cdc-underestimated-threat-from-coronavirus-botched-response-report/
and this is from a slow-people newspaper also
Of course it’s all intentional and of course COVID is a Democrat hoax because this channel is full of right-wing morons and conspiracy theorists.
Narcist- It’s a race between the oligarchs’ federal money cannon and panic.
My heart is with the victims of the Trump virus but my money is on the money cannon. Until we go bust. Thanks Trump.
My conviction is being tested, Mr. Fly. I think we should be headed much lower. There is nothing good about the economic outlook. People are looking at the recent ATH thinking we’ll go back to them. Foolishness. Those highs were with 3.5% unemployment, companies churning out profits, and an invincible bull market giving investors confidence. We are not headed back there anytime soon.
On the other hand the FED has finally been released from its cage and all the chains have been taken off. It’s a bit terrifying.
From now on the cross currents will be hard to manage.
Your FRO was working today, with NAT and TNK
The markets tanked when United said they’re cutting jobs after September, which is conveniently after the bailout money requirements expire. If they cannot manage without bailout money, did we just nationalize United Airlines?
All the airlines will operate under reduced capacity under government subsidy. Excess employees (maybe half) will have to find something else to do for a year. Cruise lines employ mainly foreigners so they’re fucked. Hertz, Avis, et al won’t be buying cars for a year. Hotels will drastically reduced occupancy. The lower taxes extracted from these industries will affect local, state, and federal government. Looks like a recession/depression in the travel industry for at least a year.
The virus curve flattens is the goal. The measures that create that event will need to remain in place for a very long time. Kiss the party goodbye.
Goal? The governors of most of the ex-Confederate states already said fuck curve flattening.
The hillbillies have some kind of a defect. How do you explain insanity to the insane?
If you haven’t seen it, Trump is giving the most insane, fact free press conference in history.
The ventilators have been delivered and thousands more on the way. LOL. But not in time. Fake news. Quit being mean to me or else.
We’ve done more than anyone since we found out yesterday.
Are you Trumpers all braindead? How can you justify this idiot?
They locked down the Heart of Dixie yesterday as well as most of the Southeast until Easter, unless they extend it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/republican-governors-split-over-trump-s-stay-at-home-skepticism
https://yellowhammernews.com/ivey-orders-non-essential-businesses-shuttered-statewide/
https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/news/20200326/tuscaloosa-under-24-hour-curfew-starting-sunday
A day or two makes a difference. Just like the stock market.
Only after they were shamed by Maddow and got flooded with angry emails and voicemails.
They’re going to burn down the economy.
I understand both points of view.
My Dad’s 81, I am his full time caretaker. I work from home.
I also understand how this is going to affect millions of people who work paycheck to paycheck. Even more so, how this will affect people a year from now though the inflationary prices of essential goods.
The hillbillies are the new native American savage.
They can’t read.
They don’t get along with any other group
They think the land belongs to them
They can’t get their shit together and thus are dying from alcoholism oxycontin and donuts
They don’t scalp people… They just shoot Jews at synogogues.
If I didn’t know any better I’d say we need a reservation in Oklahoma.
Karma
Imagine not buying any stocks from 2009 to 2016 because your brain is too stupid and too racist to buy while the president is black…
Only to buy on the Trump bump…
And watch stocks fall all the way. AND HIT SUPPORT AT THE OBAMA HIGHS.
Trump is the last hoorah of the “white” people. A made up people with a made up history. A group of not so bright European Christians who decided “white” is a better title than “Christian”
Trump’s election in 2016 is like little bighorn.
They’re all gonna die off guys.
I’m not afraid of uneducated savages.
Relax.
“We’re making ventilators now”. Fuck you Trumptards.
All of you are pieces of shit. If you have the balls (unlikely) to admit you fucked up, fine. It works out like that sometimes. Who hasn’t?
But to defend the incompetence of this narcissstic sociopath is unforgivable. Reasonable people should shun you for the rest of your ignorant lives.
Killed and eaten. Hmmm.
It’s the same damn CDC that was operating under Obama. And Bush before him. It’s the same CDC we’ve had through decades of globalization and thirty years of neglecting all other forms of systemic risk that aren’t 5 ft of coastal erosion and rhyme with “shlimate change.”
There is nothing unique or special with the current president. The effect you are experiencing is actually specific to all tail risk. There is no amount of planning that is ever truly sufficient to mitigate it.
Had you gone back to 2019 and asked, the CDC would have told you that we have plenty of ventilators and that they had modeled this against the worst known historical viruses. They would have cited numerous facts and figures and dates to support the claim.
In a virus with growth modeling a strong power series such as this, the difference between a single iteration can easily be “I have plenty” to “I have been blown out of the water”. This is related to the actuarial problem of insuring tail risk. It just cannot be done satisfactorily. The cost of a few decimals is astronomical.
In practice you’d need a “lifeboat” law for ventilators. One per every citizen. And then you’d still be open to all the other procedures you’d need to prep for. The costs to try would be in the quadrillions. This is – unfortunately- a “normal” pandemic.
This is under the presumptive idea that we would have a proactive administration. You know, one that actually thinks seriously about risk and takes recommendations from expert agencies instead of worrying about getting their feelings hurt.
Their whole point was to give the middle finger to the experts, professors, “wise guys” and what have you.
The current administration at worst underestimated the current situation for about 30 days.
Whereas the experts you’re pining for (a) never left and (b) were underestimating the situation for the last 30 years.
A cursory glance to New York’s state of affairs (or California’s or my home stste of Michigan’s) should be more than enough to set your misconception straight. Andrew Cuomo is not at all a Donald Trump, and as governor has decidedly more power to declare emergencies in his state than the Executive Branch. Yet New York is falling apart anyway.
This was in the news back in December. If you think we didn’t know about it at least by then I have a red pill to sell you.
Because the right thinks we should have a government as small and as powerful as Afghanistan.
The Trump administration fired the U.S. pandemic response team in 2018 to cut costs
Yes 2018. When he gave every billionaire a tens of million dollars at least in tax breaks and cut the corporate tax rate…
Every Republican president that has cut taxes during a bull market has later presided over a crash…
It’s entirely possible that the pandemic response team was useless like most government entities are…
But people have every reason to call Trump an idiot for firing the pandemic response team when the country is suffering through a pandemic for the first time in a hundred years.
“But people have every reason to call Trump an idiot for firing THE pandemic response team…”
THE pandemic response team is called the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and no T hey haven’t been fired. This team you guys keep preening about was bloat Susan Rice added to the National Security Council in 2015 and they were redundant mission scope creep.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-entire-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M
“at worst underestimated the current situation for about 30 days”
Are you fucking kidding me? Do you know anything about pandemics? We have 100,000+ confirmed caes now. 30 days ago we had less than 20.
30 days to a seriouos reaction is the differnce between South Korea and our present situation. Just imagine if we were testing at these levesl 30 days ago.
If we had been testing 30 days ago, we could have watched the 20 cases spread to a hundred thousand in real time, because that’s what happens when an R0 3 virus hits a hub in a highly interconnected global market. There are 330M people jn our country over a much larger area and you can’t possibly test them in the way that South Korea has. Especially not with our people being dumb as shit and refusing to isolate themselves.
But if you still think this is unique to this administration go read up on the socialists in Spain holding a women’s right rally and encouraging people to attend in early March. Or check out the NHS (glorious health system that is better than ours in every conceivable way I’m told) take the position of letting the virus spread unchecked until their PM caught it. The reason is everyone thought 20 cases was under control. And why wouldn’t you?
One more thing. You’re smart enough to see it. I hope.
We need a leader. Trump is…a liability. At best.
The common good is important. Is Trump “That guy?”
Please don’t bullshit me.
Nemo. You are a scholar. And a prince.
I voted for Reagan. Twice.
This is not conservatism…it is right wing…insanity.
The economy must work for everyone or it will fail.
The so-called free market capitalism is dead. Can it be revived? No I fear…
Only oligarchy under Trump. GL.
Any semblance of a free market ended in 2008.
Its amazing how fast these non-political blog posts of financial wisdom nugs that are thankfully put here (thank you Le fly) are absolutely littered with politics all of a sudden?
Comment section wise
You dumb fucks voted for a fucking moron for president and done took the lives of innocent people who didn’t/don’t deserve to die.
FUCK YOU.
That’s a nice thing to say to someone who has never voted before. Why did you show up all of a sudden telling people to fuck themselves just because you think they don’t agree with you politcally on a financial blog?
Dammit Moosh. Trump is not interested in ordinary people. You’re either rich or stupid…come clean…are you rich…or stupid?
It matters. Trading on nonsense?
BTW- Your politics?
Politics are part of it.
Ha, I wish I was both from your question above. Nothing but love. Have a good wkd edge!
Yeah. Sorry. I got carried away.
I intentionally tried to be offensive to the Trumpists. Forgive me. Or don’t. Once upon a time we were sane but…”alternative facts”.
There is no middle ground. It’s real or it isn’t.
Make your choice; Can reality be chosen?
Fly would have banned you but now his hometown is being royally fucked by his incompetence as we speak so I’m sure he has other things to worry about.
*his incompetence = the disgusting fake-tanned face of white supremacy
Kind of harsh Narcist.. I’m cool with it.
Anybody but Trump.
Anybody.
Fly is alright.. The world is nutz.
Left, right… Tne right is the worst. Fuck me.
You are all insane.
It will eventually collapse. I’m old. With any luck I’ll be dead by then.
You?
They are buying time to get equipment in place and keep mortality rates low. I really think they are worried about a collapse of the food supply chain if this gets out of control i.e food production and trucking. Bad things happen then.
That’s all from me tonight. Hope you love me as much as I love you. XOXO…no homo…
FU Trumptards. LOL.
It looks like nobody wanted to own anything over the weekend.
Very little owned here. I don’t know nothin’ ’bout birthin’ no babies.
l’il fix what’s broken Monday.
Down a thousand is only “half a Trump”. We are making fucking progress you ungrateful bitches.
welldone
I am making 10,000 Dollar at home own laptop .Just do work online 4 to 6 hour proparly . so i make my family happy and u can do……..Here is I started,,,,,,,,www.Neway9.com
“The Global Health Security and Biodefense unit — responsible for pandemic preparedness — was established in 2015 by Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor, Susan Rice ( here ). The unit resided under the National Security Council (NSC) — a forum of White House personnel that advises the president on national security and foreign policy matters.
In May 2018, the team was disbanded and its head Timothy Ziemer, top White House official in the NSC for leading U.S. response against a pandemic, left the Trump administration”
From Mr Cain Thalers link supposedly explaining this never happened.
Sounds like that team could have been useful. But obviously they’re part of the Obama administration. Obama is from Africa and sounds like Osama.
F*** black people and f*** their ideas.
“When will the West Virginia hillbillie realize he’s been waiting for 40 acres longer than we have?”
Cain Thaler
“THE pandemic response team is called the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and no T hey haven’t been fired.”
No the pandemic response team does not exist because they were fired… The link you provided for your argument proves this.
You guys would lick his butt hole if he told you they were vitamins in there.
I had to take the night off from fucking internet links and datasets but some good shit on here!
I think my dad has finally turned against Trump and he’s been defending The Orange God since the start.
I still have serious doubts Biden can win. Trump has never been held accountable for anything in his business life, legally, and now in politics
Every Republican president that has cut taxes during a bull market has later presided over a crash.
Trump was the only exception.
Then the market erased all the games during his administration in less than 2 weeks.
And he’s officially on track to spending more than Obama, while kicking millions off of healthcare.
The great white hope is Oxy 40mg not Donald Trump.
Hey Peaches. Long time.
Stocks got interesting again. Haven’t touched any equities since Feb 18
1929. 1987. 2001. 2008. 2020.
Best sell signal ever. Republican tax cuts.
I mean it’s tucking true though
You would have avoided every single crash except Dot com bubble.
It’s insane.
1. Republicans cut taxes during bull market
2. Max out your 0% credit card offers for 18 months… on gold bars.
3. Sell gold bars for cash
4. Buy TQQQ on margin with said cash
5. Ride the train for 3 months.
6. Sell
7. Pay back Citibank credit card and buy Jordans and weed and all black V8 coupe
So the obvious question is, how rich did the signal make you when it hit in 2018?
Or… how poor didn’t it make me this year?
Very.
I watched the doom from the sidelines. Shorted. Made a few beans. Shorted some more and handed all the beans back 🙁
Hopefully they starts making N95 USA USA eagle masks
Please forgive me. I said things I souldn’t have.
No excuse, but my frustration has hit a boiling point. I saw this coming, that if we were ever confronted by a crisis Trump would be unable to deal with it.
He does not accept reality.
Back to the markets. I think the 20% rally was due in large part to repo money. Late Friday it started to be withdrawn. Look out.
BTW- I saw someplace that the fed ran into some repo trouble Friday. A lack of demand due to lack of collateral.
Anyone else hear that?
Yes – $500B offered $0 taken up. The better trade is to sell the Treasuries to the Fed instead of lending them for cash. Better vig that way.
This is why I read ZeroHedge (with a mental filter for the trash…)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-now-treasury-shortage
Thanks Flea and Numbers. I thought that there might be something there but it looks OK for now. Only the Fed knows for sure
I like the Swedish approach toward the COVID19 pandemic. From NYT article…
“STOCKHOLM — When the coronavirus swept into the Scandinavian countries, Norway and Denmark scrambled to place extensive restrictions on their borders to stem the outbreak. Sweden, their neighbor, took a decidedly different path.
While Denmark and Norway closed their borders, restaurants and ski slopes and told all students to stay home this month, Sweden shut only its high schools and colleges, kept its preschools, grade schools, pubs, restaurants and borders open — and put no limits on the slopes.
In fact, Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease, Covid-19, that has no cure or vaccine, or if its tactic will be seen as a savvy strategy to fight a scourge that has laid waste to millions of jobs and prompted global lockdowns unprecedented in peacetime.
CORONAVIRUS UPDATESThe toll around the globe has surpassed 600,000.
By Saturday, Norway, population 5.3 million, had more than 3,770 coronavirus cases and 19 deaths; Denmark, population 5.6 million, reported 2,200 cases and 52 deaths; Sweden, with 10.12 million people, recorded more than 3,060 cases and 105 deaths.”
Sweden has paid sick time for 100% of their population. Thus mildly sick people could affrord to stay home for a week without even a doctor’s note (extended to 14 days in March)
They als ohave universal health care, thus mildly sick peopel don’t have to worry about paying for a CV test.
If Sweedn had the same pre-existing non-socilistic policies as the US, they woudl ahv a muhc hgher infection rate, because sick peopel woudl continue to go to work out of econimc self-interest and contiue spreading the disease instead of stayin home.
Very concerning data to share.. don’t think the market has priced this in.. California covid numbers are grossly under reported right now. Check there daily reports and listen to Newsom and you’ll see. Since Monday the pending results for testing has risen from 12k to 65k and the positive rate got processed tests have also gone from 10% to 17%. Also Newsom stated yesterday they have 200 people in ICU that have tested positive…BUT they also have 4,000 in ICU that are suspected Covid but awaiting test results. This isn’t a small error in data. California is in just as bad of trouble as New York. This and the unemployment numbers this week I think will devastate the markets.
This is why I think that LA could eventually surpass NYC in cases. Also, a very high precentage of their case were through contact tracing with prevoious cases. Because of their lack of testin, they are ignoring symptomatic low-risk cases. If you ahve coughin, fever, but are under 65 and gnerally healthy, you can’t get a test in LA.
From the LA COVID-19 website on scheduling a test:
Q: “Are you experiencing flu-like symptoms, such as cough, fever, and shortness of breath?”
A: “Yes”
Follow:up Q: “Are you over 65 years old or suffering a serious chronic medical condition?”
A” “No”
Result message: “We’re sorry, but you are not eligible for testing at this time. If you are experiencing symptoms, please contact your doctor. If your symptoms are severe in nature, please call 911 or seek immediate medical help. ”
The latest update is 3801 positve cases out of 23,480 tests. While some of you think “oh, 3/4 are negative,” that is because of contact tracing of testing asymptomatic people. Many of these peopel could test postive later, but more importantly, they are ignoring the spread among the general population, I am guessing that their positive rate if you ignore contract tracing is well above 80%.
Also keep in mind that contact tracing is only an effecteive policy in the ***Containment*** stage, which ended weeks ago for the US. South Korea is still in the containment stage, and they have a positive test rate of ~3%.
If you only test people that are already sick, you allow the virus to spread more easily, thus raising the likelihood that the vulnerable are more likely to get it. This of course, is not flattening the curve.
The number of people tested is a stupid number.
I want to know what percentage of people getting tested at facilities are testing positive.
That shows a better indication of the spread.
Telling me 100 people tested positive means nothing. How many people got tested? 2000? 200?
“I made $300 profit trading stocks. Means something if I started with $50. Nothing if I started with $30,000”
10% to 17%
Those are numbers that matter.
Total fatalities/population is all that really matters
Yes I agree that’s the most important number… But you literally don’t know if someone’s dead till their dead.
You can use radar to find fish or you can wait till the end of the day and ask the fishermen where the fish are…
And u lose a day of fishing!
Also keep in mind that Deaths is a lagging indicator. The most optimistic assumption isa a 1 week lag, which puts the death rate (vs those tested) near 10%. Of course, the fact that testing is so low means that the overall death arate for infectees is still much lower (balanced by the fact that the number of infected is much higher).
BTW, what is your estimate of the final US death total still at under 2000? It seems like both your medical degree and the opinon of your “Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist” reference are getting schooled by my statistics. Maybe I had *some* idea after all, especailyl since I spotted this epidemic 5 week before you did.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/23/market-gets-boost-fed-launches-main-street-facilities/#comment-568482
So at this point you have two chocies:
1) Realize that you are far out of your league in this, especailyl sicen we are very early in the *first* of possibly 3 cycles of this epidemic and just try to learn more
2) Make another WAG, in which case i’ll take the “over” again
You can also suspect to move that number from 10% to 17% then the current positive test rate is probably closer to 25%. New York is running around 40% positive rate. I wonder how many other states have this same backlog issue which is hiding a massive surge in numbers the next week.
Ozark
I am making 10,000 Dollar at home own laptop .Just do work online 4 to 6 hour proparly . so i make my family happy and u can do……..Here is I started,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,www.Neway9.com