Following a long tumultous 3 weeks at House Fly, I am prepared to maneuver into this market this market with space alien magician qualities. I have taken it upon myself to cull many stale positions and have begun the process of replacing them.
The narratives present today were the following.
- Apple warned about China, but it’s backward looking so buy Apple.
- Car manufacturers are redeploying assets into China to re-start production.
- Gold and cryptos are flying high.
- Oil is still under pressure, but stable.
- The Euro is at a 3yr low vs the dollar.
- Tesla continues higher, up another 7% today. I will hit $1,000 soon.
- The coronavirus fears have subsides, in spite of the data saying the opposite.
- Bloomberg is surging in polls, a bullish candidate for the DNC
I might be missing one or two other items, but not much. Thus far, I am having a banner year, only recently hamstrung by a series of poorly timed trades. I don’t want to use my personal issues as an excuse, but they have played a factor in me getting started late and not being able to “absorb” the market the way I normally do. Nevertheless, up more than 40% for the year in my trading account isn’t something to feel bad about.
I am also extremely happy with the performance of my Quant, which continues to crush the SPY. We have low rates, accommodative Fed policy, solid earnings, and a dissipating plague. What could go wrong?
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Ready to see a know it all amateur get Schooled by showtime.
You know the type. The beatdown on this pecker on social media,
first exchange 6 weeks ago
we’ll call him Vapor Rub
(Edited for space and time constraint)
Vapor Rub: As far as markets the cycles I follow suggest a pullback starting in January that could get ugly followed by a strong 2nd half of the year.
Showtime: That doesn’t make any sense in an election year with the president wanted riddance of. We’re in geopolitcal/swan agenda mode. Not cycles. No offense but the probability is MUCH higher a decline would not be rebounded for 2nd half. (the way theyve been hyper surging like winter 2017)
Vapor Rub: I don’t care if it make sense to you. Its true. Take a look at historical price charts.
You can believe whatever you want about your politics. You are going to have to adjust it when reality plays out.
Middleman: Maybe.. but maybe NOT bro. This is an extreme PIGGISH MARKET. And they were whoring it out
Vapor Rub: He could turn out correct. I have no issue with that. I only ‘jump on people’ when they say things that are subjective that in their view is higher probability.
(5 weeks later)
Showtime: I know you wanted to see it play out against me, I think it played out affirming me. (I wasn’t discussing politics, as you stated, I was discussing the gameboard) They have the indexes, commandeered. Tight tight tether. And of course the ceaseless nonstop near vertical leg [b][s] … was … continued …
TSLA making my year and then some.
But the real naked savage running across your neighbor’s front yard, without a care in the world is: https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=PA
Palladium, up over $200, as we speak.
Why is it that palladium is sprinting, while gold and silver jog briefly and then stop periodically for coffee, some twinkies, a bag of chips…?
Palladium is a cash market. No horseshit contracts can be used to manipulate the price. You want some; show me the cash; take physical delivery.
Gold would have $100 days, but for the antics. But eventually gold will.
Nice chart on Palladium. The definition of parabolic.
I’ll admit that I don’t know much about palladium. I just did a wikipedai check, and it looks like it is more an Industrial metal (like copper, iron, and cobalt) rather than a Preciaous metal (like silver, gold, and platinum).
Do you know waht is driving the price action?