Last night in the after-hours my virus stocks jumped out of their pants and raped all of the shorts who bet against me. Then later in the evening futures exploded higher and I knew the virus run would end, at least for now. These companies were never any good and that’s important to remember when wondering if you should hold them into downward prices. The answer is always NO.
Even though these stocks are all down today, my gains were so terrific, so fantastic, I still ended up booking gains.
In what perhaps could be my final sojourn into pandemic speculations, I booked the following.
sold $ZLAB – wash
($BCRX -3.8%)
($CDTX -2.3%)
$AEMD +14%
$LLIT +15.5%
My cash position for my trading account is 100%. Between yesterday and today, here is the final tally.
NNVC +32%
NNVC +319%
CODX +28%
CODX +61.4%
VIR +25.9%
INO +50%
AHPI +48%
NVAX +11%
NVAX +28.9%
APT +29.3%
LAKE +17.5%
LAKE +25.2%
ZLAB – wash
(BCRX -3.8%)
(CDTX -2.3%)
AEMD +14%
LLIT +15.5%
You are now within the dominion of “The Fly” where the wins pile up and even the losses are wins. When people bet against him, they end up bankrupted and in the streets raped. Nothing can stop me, especially not the lowly reader class heckling him on Twitter and in the comments section. When the going gets tough, Le Fly drives gravity hammers through the heads of his enemies.
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BCRX, MRNA, LLIT for the win down here.
Who’s next?
Regards
Chuck Bennett
So the biggest company on the planet is releasing earnigns this afternoon. Due to a leaked report (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Apple-plans-10-production-boost-but-suppliers-fear-coronavirus) the stokc is up today, basicalyl erasing yesterday’s loss.
Of course this means that 2 things are priced into the AAPl stock:
1) Easily beat earnings
2) Increase forwad revenue projections to match the 10% supplier production increase.
With AAPL already near ATH, this leaves almost no room for an upside surprise. Also, while it is likely they will meet expectations, the downside risk is very high if they do miss becuase expectaions are so high. Really not worth holding the stock for that kind of risk profile.
On the other hand, Wall St wants to keep the white powder *sniff* flowing, so Cowen, Piper Jeffries, and Cascend Securities have already raised their price targets *twice* since the last earnings call. Not to be undone, Wedbush raised their target *3 times*.
If a 23 year old kid with a decent stable job paying 60k a year, and 99 % of his net worth represented by his human capital (future earnings), has $2000 a month available to save and invest, what would you recommend for him to do with it? Let’s assume to maximize his career potential he has no time to trade or read about markets and would take manual action on his portfolio at most once per quarter. Still doesn’t make sense to own some AAPL even as a part of an index fund? Or does your commentary on this site not apply to this hypothetical situation?
$2,000 straight into BitcoinSV (BSV)
$2k / month straight into BSV would be baller AF. That little fucker would be richer than daddy, and like soon.
Seriously he must live at home? Saving $2k / month on a $60k salary is really good even on an oatmeal diet.
Saving 2k per months could put him on “2 bottles of Macallan25” diet.
Now, THAT is really ballerAF and surelly will make him happier than daddy… lolz.
meanwhile, bitcoin is still 10 bottles under 2017 high
Definitely a percentage into crypto with a chunk in BTC.
Total % in crypto: 1% to 60%.
Start with 1-10% immediately. Lots to learn
Of that, % BTC: 20% to 60%
BTC is 66% of the space
BSV is around 2.1%
BSV ran 360% in a year. Time to pile in now. ??? not me
I don’t understand BSV. Besides the recent run what’re the future prospects? Someone else can explain.
@alty
1. At 23 years of age you should be spending most of your cash on party, traveling and collecting different experience. This will give you a better bang (pun detected) for the buck, then just giving it away into WS in hopes that “everything will work out over the long term”.
2.While you working on YOUR carrier, realize that Wall Street’ers are working on theirs, which include (in large part) separating money from sucker’s wallets. Look around this proverbial poker table – are you sure you want to play without sufficient knowledge and preparation?
3. If you still have an itch – read “Random walk down Wall Street” – it’s a kind of a book to have if you only want to read one…lol. It has all of relevant historical background, actionable plan as well as detailed explanation why would you still be loosing your shirt (and piece of mind) every once in a while.
PS. Dr Fly strategies are not for noobs – you will lose ALL your money if you can’t function independently
PPS. AAPL has been in S&P since 1980’s. It was under a buck (split adjusted). Since then it had several 50% (and more) bear markets and was a terrible investment for many-many years. Yet… here we are.
PPPS. (Tough love alert!)
The way you pose these questions and your approach shows complete lack of understanding – as far as practical speculation and investing goes. Sorry, brother. Get the book before you and your money parted…
Lol. The question was specifically directed at Numbers, but it was entertaining to hear from the degenerates as well.
Bergamot your comment was ignorant and misguided enough that it doesn’t really deserve a thoughtful response.
This is a most common kind of response I get, whenever I poke my head out of hiding and comment on these interwebs.
All good, my friend, I need alot of people on the other side of my trades.
When you grow up and your views start to shift – don’t be salty, come and talk, I’ll be around…
No saltiness, just that your reading comprehension is non existent. I’m not the person in the example. You are giving bad and unsolicited advice to someone that exists as a hypothetical. The book you recommend is the antithesis of the advice you provide. The takeaway from it is literally that one cannot consistently outperform market averages. (Google the book and read the first summary you see). Basically buy index funds and move on with your life. There’s nothing stopping a 23 year old from both saving and living it up. 23 year olds making far less than 60k still find a way to live it up. Even the slightest grasp of compounding would help you understand how powerful that savings could be at that age. I realize these words would have a better chance of sinking into concrete than to you, but that’s ok.
Actually I agree with a lot of what he says, especailyl the part about investing with zero knowledge becuase you have “no time to trade or read about markets.” A 23-year old has nothing BUT time.
As for the basic question, it’s very surprising coming from you: you basically track my moves more than anybody else on this site. I actually went long AAPL – at $170 or so, then sold it a few dasy alter near $200 in 2019Q1. It’s amazing how much thought people put into exactly how much they are willing to pay for prodcuts and services, but for stocks they just decide which stocks they want and don’t care about the price at all.
I-Phones are great, but would you pay $1500 for one?
Buy a TSLA Model 3 for $100k?
Keep you NFLX subscription at $50/month?
Subscribe to AMZN Prime at $500/year?
Anyway, I answered this question several times on this blog. Also, if you check when I first made my current long-term recomendation in April 2019, you’ll find that it outperformed SPY since then quite handidly, despite what you may have believed.
Clearly you haven’t read a random walk down Wall Street either. 🙂
lol. run out of reply here – so scroll down to continue
There are two basic reasons why investements assets go up in value: short-term trends and long-term fundamentals. It’s best to own investments that favor both.
I do read market history, which is why I am confidant this will not end well for most people. https://money.cnn.com/1999/12/31/markets/markets_newyork/
How do you define end? The market is higher now than on that day. The 23 year old diligent saver on 12/31/99 would be a multimillionaire by now, and at 43 likely able to retire early or pursue any endeavor he wishes without concern of how to pay the bills.
Note on loooong term ‘Market’ performance.
Charts are lying to you a little bit, which compounds ALOT over decades.
If you take a wide market index, like equal weighted NYSE composite since 1990, adjust for inflation based on model used BEFORE 1999, and discount for risk-free rate (say, 10-year treasury, however small it is now, it was double and triple before)… ready for this?
You made nothing since like 1997. Zilch. Big bupkis.
All you managed is to keep up with REAL inflation, if that.
This is why all these 401k plans are so popular, regardless of terrible administration everywhere. Employer match, reinvestment of compounding divi and favorable tax treatment – that’s ALL the edge normal people get. Sigh…
Alty, my point was that bear markets start from bullish extremes.
Your point seems to be that bear markets don’t matter because investors always *will* fully recover. You can’t make future prdeictions based on pst performance when the major parameters (interest rate direction, productivity, demographics, national debt) are so different than the past.
Also, take a poll on what people think the (geometric) average return of stocks has been over the past 20 years and what they think it wil be during the next 20 years. They’ll probably be wrong on both counts by several percentage points.
ZH…Word for the day:
raw dog – Urban Dictionary
-“my nigga decided to raw dog that ho and got that bitch pregnant” -“lucky nigga didnt get the clap” _”you gonna raw dog that ho tonight” _”yeah im gonna …
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/28/800442646/acclaimed-harvard-scientist-is-arrested-accused-of-lying-about-ties-to-china
Some (not me) would argue that he did nothing wrong, because that’s just capitalism and he only got in trouble becuase of too much governemetn regualtions.
Fly what are you gonna buy with your winnings? I recommend a complete home water filtration set up if you don’t already have it. Trump rolling back clean water is gonna fucking suck wet dick for the “dirty” south.
Also what do you have against Pacific crabs and shell strength biatch? I literally work on those crab studies…..
Ironically, Trump supporters will likely be more affected than this by others because they live in states and areas where people don’t care about environmental regs. Even his rich ones don’t escape their own stupididty:
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/463826-epa-on-forever-chemicals-let-them-drink-polluted-water
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-national-golf-course-new-jersey-toxic-chemicals-tap-water-1470189
You know what they say about shit and the direction it flows
MASTER OF DISASTER
Dr. Fly Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:54am EST 27 Comments
Into the teeth of the apocalypse, masterfully, Le Fly was 70% positioned into virus stocks. I sold them all
Are you the same HARTMAN as OA’s old blog or what?
That was a great moment in time for people actually trading. Thanks for reiterating. Maybe not so much for people trolling, and missing out on banking coin by being close minded
Guess what you sick fat fuck HARTMAN, cocksucker
After I wrote that blog, I bought stocks. Don’t believe me? I run a public forum with a thousand subscribers. Ask the comments section. Someone will attest.
@alty
Its not a bad advise, just most people don’t really want any advises at all. Unsolicited, sorry, just wanted to help. i thought you wanted to listen.
As far as the book – here is a funny part. I was actually just as vocal critic of it as you. There is a post on my blog somewhere a while back, where I rip good Professor Malkiel a new asshole. Then I had a similar discussion with someone older and wiser, and realized that everything I thought I knew about this particular book was wrong. Really. Its like an organized disinformation campaign everywhere with statements that are not found anywhere in a book, and some key concepts completely ignored. Basically, everything you know about Random Walk is written by people who either never read the book (here is looking at you, kid) or purposely trying to hide it from public view (surprise, surprise).
Yet, it had been re-published 14 times since 1973.
These things happen to books. It’s like ‘Atlas Shrugged’ that outprinted Bible for decades, but only shows up a couple of times on New-York Times best-seller list.
You really need to read this shit to find out what’s in it.
As far as compounding as an investment approach… hmm… you are on a right truck here. I laid some ground work, but then got bogged down due to complete luck of public interest:
http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2017/04/poor-richard-introduction.html
Props to you for writing your thoughts down in a blog. Honestly.