iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,571 Blog Posts

BLACK SWAN EVENT: MARKETS SET TO PLUNGE

If you’ve been reading me the past week you know that I’ve been first to this pandemic trade, not because I’m a scientist and know the deadly pathogens released into China, but because I’m keenly aware of human behavior and saw the Chinese response to an otherwise small amount of infections as disproportionate.

No need to droll on about it, at this point. Either you’re in these virus trades or not. If there are trades to be had, believe me I’ll find them first in.

Tomorrow markets will plunge at the open. All of the hallmarks of risk off are present. Whether it bounces off the lows or sinks further is anyone’s guess. One thing is for certain, virus stocks will be in play. Only 30% of my followers on twitter have bought some. I suspect the news will get worse before it gets better. This is the quintessential black swan event that you read about in text books. This is when you take outsized risk for a chance at scoring huge gains.

As such, my trading account is 70% long virus stocks, which stand to make me a small fortune tomorrow morning. In the off chance they open lower, I’ll sell. If they explode higher, I’ll likely sell and buy back later. Since I’m up so much, there are very few scenarios where I won’t sell. But there are some names that are still very cheap and can run higher.

Not pitching here, but I am. If you want access to me, you’ll need to join Exodus. A man of my importance and stature clearly can’t be seen doling out valuable trade I info to the canaille here without a fee.

Clearly that would be stupid.

Rest well knowing The Fly won again.

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13 comments

  1. heckler

    Are you 70% long or 50% or a liar?

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  2. heckler

    I’m about 20% long flu and still a little scared which makes me happy. I think there will be plenty of time to sell in the morning

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  3. awanka

    I think tomorrow will be max fear. I’ll be looking to buy a few calls on the indexes for a bounce. If the virus story starts to really get crazy I’ll exit out of them.

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  4. chuck bennett

    Fellas , have a clue here.
    We are looking at 100k or more coronavirus victims Just in the middle of China alone.

    This 2700 number is bogus.

    Buy the bounce at your own peril. You haven’t seen shot yet IMHP

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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    • MSGT HARTMAN

      You do realize that the symptoms are milder than the flu.

      And some of the folks flagged in the US are false positives.

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      • numbersgame

        I have to agree with Hartman on this one.

        Nonetheless, I anticipated the panic of the masses but went the other way. Instead of trying to time a short term Virus bounce, I view this as a trigger to more rational valuations: CHAD, SPY puts, FXJ calls, and of course, lots and lots of Treasuries…

        Just like last time, I’ll reduce my load at 2.0%.

        I guess you’ll update us on your YTD results later this week?

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  5. 'merica

    Here is a rather disturbing bit of info I came across: http://i.imgur.com/bN5STBx.png

    via https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200126-sitrep-6-2019–ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=beaeee0c_4

    Apparently WHO retroactively has classified the global risk from moderate to high. It was an “Error in situation reports published on 23, 24, and 25 January as originally published”.

    But although the CDC says “While the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time, everyone can do their part to help us respond to this emerging public health threat”

    It follows that up by saying “It would not be surprising if person-to-person spread in the United States were to occur. Cases in healthcare settings, like hospitals, may also occur.”

    Stay safe out there, RIP Kobe.

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    • numbersgame

      Thanks for the report.

      The incubation period is 2-10 days, so we’ll know by the end of the week whether this is an actual global threat or just a China problem.

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  6. tradercaddy

    I am long Coricidin HBP for the flu and the HBP specifically because we all know the Chinese have high blood pressure. They must have it as they talk real fast.

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  7. juice

    Fly has made me a small fortune in Exodus and I am only in one of these suckers, which has already doubled and I’m out 1/2 as we speak. Paid for many years of his investment club.

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  8. chuck bennett

    Hartman, I do know is, and that is what makes it dangerous. You spread it with out knowing it. The incubation time is over a week and you can spread it during and while sick.

    The WHO retroactively declared what? Wow

    Again all you doubters , listen to people who know. They are lying

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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    • numbersgame

      “You spread it with out knowing it. “.. according to the Chinese Governement Health Minister who’s goal is to contain the spread by getting the Chinese people to minimize contact with each other.

      The CDC and WHO have no evidence to back that statement. It’s still a guess either way.

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  9. ferd

    Zerohedge indicator says this has further to run. Their lead story is about a celebrity who didn’t die from virus.

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