iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,083 Blog Posts

The Most Hated Stocks Will Rise Again

Anyone remember the HLF squeeze? It was a time and a place when Carl Icahn took schoolboy Bill Ackman back to kindergarten to teach him a lesson in manners, punch him around the old schoolyard and take his lunch from him. In this particular tape, stocks like TSLA and BYND are most hated, especially by F-150 meat eating reprobates who enjoy making fun of vegans all day —- all the way to the poorhouse that is.

Another sector worth exploring is cannabis. All of the austere temperance types spit on them, which is why I am long TLRY. Yesterday, while traveling to the hospital to visit a dear loved one, I nailed a trade in KRTX. I’m still long as a matter of fact and tell you this because I am a most generous man.

We have overstayed our welcome. This is a tape designed for squeezing shorts. Find the most hated stocks and take directional long positions and then watch shorts get peeled back and clubbed out with horror.

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28 comments

  1. numbersgame

    11 years ago:
    What’s happenning! The financail system is grinding to a stop! Will the goverenemnt takeover the big banks? Buy Treasuries!!!
    10yr: bottoms at 2.034%
    30yr bottoms at 2.540%

    Today:
    Everything is awesome! ATH, ATH!
    10yr: under 1.80%.and falling
    30yr under 2.25% and falling

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  2. numbersgame

    Anyone remember 1999?

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    • alty

      What are you holding these days?

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      • ericbakerbruce

        His prick

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      • numbersgame

        The MotherFucking best ETF for when this insanity ends

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        • natehois

          Only negatively correlated ETFs that you could be in are treasuries related, unless you’re sitting there year after year in vix bullshit, waiting for the ol “big one”.

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        • alty

          It just has to be disappointing for someone who follows the market so closely to miss out on such a simple to forecast rally over the last 3 months. Being long term bearish, I get. But the setup was golden and your biases led you to miss out on very easy money.

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          • numbersgame

            I capitalized on the rally at the beginning of 2019: that was an easy setup. However, this rally satrted at a base already near ATHs, with historaically high valuations.

            APPL has gone up 80% from it’s 2018 bottom. During that same period, revenue and profit have both flatlined.

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          • natehois

            This is “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” playing out in real time.

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  3. ferd

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts Numbers. Ignore the ill-willed.

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  4. heckler

    Might as well buy some weed stocks while you wait though right?

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  5. og

    Market seems pretty euphoric.

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  6. narwhal

    You don’t have to look for trash. Amzn is a no brainer here. It hasn’t even joined the party yet.

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    • numbersgame

      You are assumming that AMZN is a bargain because it isn’t at ATHs. Now, there certainly may be enough peopel that beleive the same thing for AMZN to go higher.

      However, in the long terms, earnigns matter and Apple an dMicrosoft each makes more profit in a quarter than Amazon makes in a year. Amazon has sales volume, but margins are samll on the reatil business. On the other hand, the cloud business is highly profitable but a mch samller percenatege of revenue.

      The only way AMZN can justify its stock price is if they manage to monetize their user’s information, simialr to Google and Facebook:

      Step 1: Collect user info
      Step 2: Sell user info to politicians that are anti-privacy and anti-consumer
      Step 3: Politicains get elected and legislate laws that are freindly ot your company
      (Step 4: populism grows as corporations get more powerful )
      (Step 5: tipping point…)

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      • narwhal

        They also invest profits heavily into growth rather than share buybacks

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  7. ferd

    Y’all might consider feb puts on certain retail brokerages

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    • numbersgame

      The Phase 1 trade deal is quite substantial in it’s expectations:
      Increase US exports to China by $200B over 2 years (2020-2021) compared to 2017 (pre-tarif war) levels. It also addresses strengthening China’s IP protection standards.

      However, these targets seem extremely…optimistic. I do not know how China could achieve these levels, even if it actually wanted to to (unless we start sellign them restricted military and intelligences hardware). Take a look:

      Exports of Goods and Services to China (Millions USD)
      2010 115,559
      2011 133,880
      2012 144,894
      2013 160,375
      2014 169,008
      2015 165,525
      2016 170,395
      2017 186,288
      2018 177,969
      2019 ~
      2020 262,988 (target)
      2021 309,288 (target)

      Unsurprisingly, the trade deal has ***no pre-defined enforcement penalties***. If one party doesn’t meet its obligations, then the “Dispute Resolution” process is to file a formal complaint with the other country to try and reach an agreement over whether a caluse was breached and what to do about it. In fact, this is worse than before, because now the US is forced to either withdraw from the agreement or to negotiate with China instead of immediately taking action such as tarffis and sanction. On the other hand, this means that Trump can no longer make tariff policy by tweet, so more predictability.

      I beleive thar the $200B target is meant more for “Trump 2020” than anything else. However, this could backfire. By time Nov rolls around, it should be evident how close China will come to meeting this target. On the other hand, if China DOES achieve these target, then ***Trump deserves a second term*** (and will undoubtedely get one).

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  8. bennyhill

    How do we trade a Warren or Sanders presidency? It’s going to happen.

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  9. ferd

    XLF was a short this morning and remains so into the close.

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  10. ferd

    Qs and SPY ..lovely shooting starts shaping up.

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  11. it is showtime

    Hi inner wall st CB circle

    3309.

    I just named a number
    you cant get the S&P
    to hit. Can’t even touch.
    have a good day

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  12. soupbone

    Trump gets back in if the boat keeps from swamping between now and election time. People want to keep their money and will vote so. Timely for Iran and China to exit the front burner position.

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