iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,083 Blog Posts

Semis Strong; Biotech Killed

I have a few minutes to kill on the train from Princeton to NYC.

My positions are net up, thanks to my stocks and of course my shorts against biotech. But I’m being flayed alive in my gold long and semis short. It seems semis will never trade down again. Remember when the sector used to be volatile, subject to cycles? There were times when margins got squeezed by manufacturers. Not anymore. The semis call the shots now. Final bosses. For the life of me, I don’t know where the compatible nature of the sector went. Did they all get together and decide to fix pricing, like a CABAL?

Clearly something is different now.

That being said, tech is super strong today. Biotech deserves to be strung out and beaten because the run up was always suspect.

I’m heavily cash, all long in my quant. Hard to not be bullish.

I’ll hold my semis short for a few hours more and then dump it if the market keeps going up.

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17 comments

  1. numbersgame

    Iran admitted to shooting down the Ukrainian plane. Russia has still not admitted to thier forces being at fault for the Malaysian airline . I think this is a huge sign of Iran wanting to play friendly with the West. Also, huge protests in Iran (since many of the dead are college students of Iranain descent) are also a sign of the clerics weaking grip.

    This indicates that there probably will be no more reaction from Iran. So the largest unintended consequence of the Solemeni action will a net positive for US-Iran relations in the long run, thanks to the self-inflicted weakening of the regime through the airliner shoot down. This is a net postive for the market, as that’s one less black swan to worry about.

    Also, it looks like Wall Street is still not done with Tesla, as oppenheimer just about doubled their price target today.

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    • acehood

      Sounds like Trump knew what he was doing. Again.

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      • numbersgame

        First, “unintended consequence”, although perhaps he predicted that Iran would not react hard, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

        Second, “again”? Trump’s international style: F*ck things up, then bring them back slightly worse than they were before he took office and take a victory lap.

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        • cancel19

          Triggered! LOL!

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          • numbersgame

            You mean trolled. Triggering is when someone gets overly offended from somethings, usually a negative opinion.

            Tesla on it’s way to Musk’s first payment threshold. If it manges to somehow average $550 for 20 out of 30 days, Musk gets paid ~$200M in stock options.

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      • one-eighty

        “Sounds like Trump knew what he was doing. Again.”

        Haha. Good one.

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    • og

      When does Einhorn cover? Amazing.

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      • numbersgame

        Look at a monthly chart of TSLA:
        October: +30.7%
        November: “only” 4.7% (over 50% annualized)
        Decemeber: +26.8%
        January (to date): +23.8%

        Totally irrational. I have to wonder who is actually buying shares at these prices besides algos and covering shorts.

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        • og

          Analysts climbing over themselves to upgrade. I don’t think anyone expected the China factory to be up and running so quickly. They’ve almost always been behind schedule with their targets.

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    • soupbone

      too much petty logic for reality to ever match partner.

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    • wolfdaddy

      Maybe einhorn is covering! I don’t understand how these guys get to where they are, particularly him

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  2. it is showtime

    it is
    amazing
    how many people
    even here
    don’t have a Bs meter
    for a sector moving skeptically or suspiciously by synthetic means or control
    #biotec

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  3. chuck bennett

    TSLA lost a billion on 360k cars sold last year and they are now more valuable than VW who sold 11 million vehicles and earned over 12 billion?

    Who the fuck is buying this indeed ?

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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    • it is showtime

      Oh, showtime getting validated?

      That there’s something anomalous to buying logic?

      Think I kinda said that 7 years ago

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      • moosh

        Congrats on the validation?? When you figure out how to not lose money almost every day for seven plus years with your logic, let us know.

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        • it is showtime

          Expect more from u moo
          yeah the truthteller and realist and critical thinker and authoritative analyst get maligned?
          that’s how “backwards” this era…. was ….until
          https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0082238/
          The Day the Bubble Burst (1982)
          A fictionalized account of how the 1929 stock market crash hurt the elite and the struggling, and the forces that may have caused the crash to occur.

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  4. MSGT HARTMAN

    +2.29% YTD

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