While markets are smoking cocks on the hopes that Trump could somehow figure out a way to strike a deal with China, the likelihood of that happening is next to zero. There is significant headline risk in this tape now. However, and this goes without saying, I don’t fucking know what to do with that information.
Day 1: +2%
Day 2: -2%
Day 3: +2%
You’d have to posses a Joker like mentality to trade this fucking tape, or be stubborn to the point of only one way. Traders are getting eaten up and beat the fuck out, rightly so.
I sold FRAN for a +14.6% gain, a much needed profit following a spate of poorly executed trades. I am leaning towards fading this rally.
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You’ll be up about 200% per year at that pace.
This tape is tainted. I see the influence of no-commison-trades. Strong early moves by Wall Street to draw them in, then BAM!, down comes the axe.
In other news, here is the latest analyst input on my white whale:
Monness Crespi Hardt, $440 -> $340, Buy
Evercore, $380 -> $300, Buy
Goldman Sachs, $420 -> $360, Buy
UBS, $420 -> $370, Buy
Are these bullish or bearish? I think it’s Wall Street’s version of CYA, because they have no f***ing clue either. However, the clear message is to short any strong rallies, so if it gaps up after earnigns, I’ll be fading like a ghost.
This may sound a little naive, but I wonder how the brokerages are going to make money.
Funds on deposit collect interest. Of which the house keeps. Don’t kid yourself sport, the absence of commission will be missed. I suppose this will answer the age old question….are commissions really the difference in whether your account banks or loses coin….of course not.
Thanks fx, There have been a lot of changes to the post 1930’s and 2008 financial system safeguards over the years, including today. I’m not sure if there is a paradigm shift underway. No doubt the brokerage stockholders got a taste.
Likely by them selling the order flow data to Citadel et al. A good read “Flash Boys” or the recent movie “The Hummingbird Project”.
The Nothing a mysterious and dark parasite. The sole intention,
of running the magical universe into extinction, by
consuming its very existence.
When you attempt to glance at The nothing your eyes sting,
your brain is unable to reconcile the forms it brings.
It is an unknown entity behind it.
But a villainous entity.
A frightening,
dark,
engulfing,
energy.
“No. This was, the Nothing… And it got bigger…. and bigger………. and bigger….”
Ring ring ring
“Hello showtime it’s me JP Sartre”
“Hey JP whatcha doing”
“Nothing”
“Me too”
“Life is boring”
“Not if you’re an existentialist living in a transcendental world”
“Emily Dickinson was hot”
“So was Sylvia Plath”
Trump has no choice but make a deal with China. Let’s see what he gets.
What do we have to gain from a deal with China?
Stolen IP
Cheap goods that break within a year
Slave labor camps using underage children (Apple)
Always liked the idea of having a place in one of the ghost cities built in early 2000’s there to still be able to swing over to
I agree some kind of agreement is in order, but I’m sure Vlad disagrees.
Likely you’re being sarcastic ..as there is no excuse for any sentient American to still believe the MSM Russian conspiracy hoax.
Don’t need an excuse when we have the facts and evidence.
Well Named, remove the tin foil hat.
Here’s some info from your preferred right-wing sources:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/26/1874603/-Senate-report-Election-systems-in-all-50-states-were-targeted-by-Russia-in-2016
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bipartisan-senate-report-foreign-meddling-2016-trump-2020-election
I’d include links to FBI and other intelligence reports, but everybody knows that FBI agents and other law-and-order types are far-left bleeding heart liberals…
Ferd is a Russian troll. I’m sure he’s on many different sites spouting off his brand of condescending misinformation
A Russian troll? Thanks for making my point about tin foil hatters.
Now back to silence with you …and your religiously clicking on “fake news”.
Look, Ferd, I try to wish you well, but you’ve used that “well-named” bit a couple of times already.
Don’t bore me.
Nope, not me. You’re wrong about this too.
Markets think trade deal is done. I checked CHina to see thei persepective. Not much there today: https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3032588/donald-trumps-white-house-meeting-chinas-top-trade-negotiator
However, one thing that was odd is that the brief article (7 sentences) stated this:
“Unlike Trump’s previous meetings with the Chinese delegation, this time Liu does not carry the title of special envoy for President Xi Jinping.”
Why bother mentioning that? I guees this mean that nothing can be signed without Xi. However, that seemed obvious anyway, just like the fact that US ambassadors or even Cabinet officials no longer speak for the US as Trump often contradicts them.
Or maybe it is just a Chinese move to show that they now control things, since our US President is personally meeting with someone who is now well below the rank of Ambassador.
Silver (and to a lesser extent gold) holding up pretty well in light of the carnage in bonds. How temporary this separation? Hmmm?
What lovely symmetry. Bonds came down to daily uptrend and are bouncing …and /ES met resistance exactly where it should have and it retreating. And yes comrade sk, I have profited from those moves.
In terms of deals, there is always room for a status-quo/insignifcnat Chian/US deal. However, I don’t undersatnd the latest optimism for a soft-Brexit. There doesn’t seem to be any middle-ground to be ahd. Here are the requirements:
1) (Brexiters): immigration must be completely under British rules/control; no open borders. This was #1 reason behind Brexit
2) (Northern Ireland/Ireland): no hard (controlled) border on the Irish island
3) (UK/Great Britain island): Northern Ireland to remain part of UK
On immigration:
1) If Northern Ireland (NI) does not have border controls, then refugees could enter England through NI.
2) If NI does have border control checkpoints, then NI will be very unhappy, which could imperil the the Good Friday peace agreement
If NI stays in the EU Customs Union, then any goods mvement between England and NI either:
1) would have to be treated as EU imports (which would further isolate NI from Engalnd)
2) would not be treated as EU imports, in which case UK trades deals could be effecively bypassed by moving goods through NI first.
Imagine if California (NI) abided by NAFTA rules but Texas didn’t. Or if Trump said that California would be allowed to create it’s own immigration policy.
Perhaps new polls indicating that Johnson will be out as PM if he doesn’t get a deal has changed the calculus.