I grew up in a black place of crude oil, one of the very few enclaves inside the inner pits of Brooklyn, NY where men still drilled for oil. Sometimes when the drills would break, they’d send small boys into the pits to dig with their hands, scratch and claw for that black gold. As a boy, I always walked upon the black earth of the Brooklyn oil fields, with petrol on my face and gold in my pockets.
Not much has changed from then until now. I speak to you today a proud and boisterous individual, long the black gold and the gold gold. I would provide you, the reader class, with my picks; but quite frankly, you wouldn’t know what to do with them if I did.
See, picks are exclusive for Exodus — the sort of thing that is shared between men of property and leisure. Sure, you have a few bucks in the market and you’ve had some ancillary success. But who hasn’t? We’re in a never-ending climb to death here, bunch of Eddie Barzoons running around shooting rockets at people from ships, borrowing money until our eyes bleed — fucking the poor every which way but loose.
As founder of this fine establishment, I do not require your money, only your understanding — to know that Le Fly is, and always has been, an oil man — ever since birth.
Where is oil heading next?
Sharply higher.
Why?
War, gentlemen. War.
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there will be no war for Trump is a man full of shit and peace, and he’s running for re-erection next year, so war will have to wait till 2021. Whilst telling the American populace that he wants the price of gas down, he commanded his mideast compatriots to burn it to the ground to get the price up so going-bankrupt shalers and frackers can remain solvent to pay off their American debtors, i.e. da banks. After this bit of reflation, he will become a man of peace and let crude drop into Nov 2020.
It’s almost as if we’ve made a deal with Iran as to when and where we’ll strike …and on how they’ll react. All this stuff is not even the lead story in the English version of Tehran Times.
say what?
https://www.tehrantimes.com/
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440217/Iran-says-U-S-hasty-claims-about-strikes-on-Aramco-harmful-to
l-e-a-d story
There is a pic of the cover page this headline:
“Drone strikes disrupt almost half of Saudi oil capacity”
The lead story is about Syria. S-y-r-i-a!
Please check the dates. The headline on MOnday, 9/16/2019 is clearly the drone attack. Now, the story doesn’t appear on the front page, but I hope you aren’t quibling about which story is the actual “lead” (the one with the giant pic and giant letters, or one of the others on the fornt page.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/archive?ty=14&ms=2&ps=30
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440184/13484
Of course, the big pictue remains that most US citizens are STILL not interested in shedding American blood for Saudi oil.
If Trump attacks Iran over this, the Dems will paint it as yet another Iraq/Syria/Afgahnistan quagmire.
As for shorting oil, that is a move for those that weren’t trading oil in 2008:
“the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
If the past 18 years should have taught us anything, it’s that most Americans don’t give a sweet shit who’s blood is shed …as long as it is not their own or their immediate families’ blood …and as long as the dollar cost of bloodshed are deferred/hidden.
That’s only true when America is winning wars. Americans are quick to abandon a losing war/team/candidate.
Just look how the fan base of profesional sports teams ebb and flow with their victories. It’s the same reason why DJT never admits mistakes: his base is primarily (a)lpha males that will abandon any leader that looks weak.
Best case for war with Iran still looks awful for the US, and will be a self-inflcted mortal wound if Trump goes forward with it.
Really small pump jacks in unusual places producing a few barrels a day used to be common. Probably some still running today.
There is no way going forward for the markets if they are expected shrug off both trade wars and an energy shock.
If the market was a truly efficeint and capitalistic, then clearly things are worse overall for stocsk than they were on Friday and the marekt should be down significantly
However, the market is nowhere near rational or efficient in the short term, and has a bullish, anti-capitalisitc, ant-price-discovery bias in the medium term.
Therfore, energy companies are up big while transports have barely moved (Oh, they’re hedged, you say? Well who has the other side of that? The oil companies? Financials? Commodity hedging is a zero-sum game, so the oil companies gain is somebodies loss. In fact, since infrastructure and inventory was destroyed and not stolen or given away, it is a net negative on the world’s economic balance sheet).
My statement is irrelevant to short term trading. I sell and buy about once every three months. Investing.
Oil goes higher. On rumors of war.
No war will be held, other than the war on being waged on our very sanity.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Amateur traders buy oil stocks now as if the problem is frozen and will never go away,
The Saudi’s are releasing reserves
The US is releasing reserves
New pipelines are coming on line.
New wells are coming online
The end result will be a glut in supply as everyone freaks out and hoards oil.
Idiots who buy oil will be left holding the bag.
So far, I don’t think you’ve given us any of your positions, only your “internet” gains. I assume that since “idiots” are going long oil, then you are currently shorting oil stocks being the stock-picking genius that you claim?
+37.09% YTD.
Only idiots and iBankCoin bloggers short the market.
So you’re not long oil stocks *or* short oil stocks.
Why do I have the feeling that I’d get the same answer for any other industry I’d name?
Did somebody here intimate oil was not cyclical?
The sky is blue.