iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,609 Blog Posts

IT’S HAPPENING AGAIN: YIELD CURVE INVERTS; COUNTDOWN TO RECESSION STARTS NOW

Apologies for the tardiness. I was up past 5am packing my house for the big move and hadn’t realized how much shit I had accumulated — truly disgusting and appalling. I am never going to buy anything again. I wish I could say the same for my wife, who simply cannot help herself and must hoard all of the items from all of the stores. When does it end? Does it ever?

Markets are careening lower and you’re all on the edge of your seats, eagerly awaiting my assessment. It’s very grim.

The 10yr is at 1.58%, down 9bps.

Oil is crashing, down 4%.

Gold is spiking, just like I said it would.

Stocks are down more than 500.

Time to seek safer harbors.

“The U.S. equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts,” wrote Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.

Yesterday I bought CRWD for an overnight hundred dollar roll trade. I do not even know how it opened up — since I was deep into REM sleep. I fucked up and ended selling it for a 5% loss. It was an overnight trade, so rules are rules — you sell no matter the outcome. It does not become an investment — just because it’s down. I lost, so I move on.

I still have a triple inverse hedge on the books, so that’s cushioning my decline — plus all of that fucking gold too. Damn I’m good.

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24 comments

  1. Marc David

    QE 4 EVER!

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  2. teslawasright

    Outstanding

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  3. oilerua

    bear shitters shall be buried again and again , august shall pass leaving a cemetery behind

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  4. numbersgame

    “Gold is spiking”
    20% hedge in gold, 1% move up = +0.2% cusion to your portfolio. Sweeeeet…

    Oh, you decided to leverage up?
    NUGT 3x gold miners, crushed like wine grapes yesterday, and still hasn’t made it up.

    Meanwhile, TLT oscillates between dips that are bought (no change) and *real* spike ups. The bond move also lead directly to my next trade placed today and already profitable. I want to see the market go up so I can test my thesis and then i’ll share it

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  5. spaceman

    I have 70% in physical gold and silver advise me on adding more silver THANKS IN ADVANCE!

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    • numbersgame

      In the past, Godl has gone up when infaltion reached 3% (as measrued by the CPI)

      Currently, gold is a hedge against inflation that is non-existant. It is going up as a reach for safety/alternatives, ie, panic.

      Trade it, don’t love it.

      https://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

      In fact, if Gold hits $1600, I’m going to short it (no position otherwise)

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  6. tha pirate

    “I wish I could say the same for my wife, who simply cannot help herself and must hoard all of the items from all of the stores. When does it end? Does it ever?”

    Answer:
    NO.

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  7. chuck bennett

    Rates are going to be lowered.

    Where is Hugh Hendry? Own the TLT

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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  8. mx2101

    Great time to head south Fly. Many years ago all of my possessions fit in the trunk of a Toyota Corolla. Just an overnight bag up front.

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  9. trumpmeister

    Luckin Coffee, LOL…

    I don’t feel sorry for Chinese dogshiet eaters to lose money hard.

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  10. snoozemr

    CVX goes ex div Friday. Got in at 118.21. Will double tomorrow at some point if it sinks lower

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  11. jacked rabbit

    I fundraise for a non-profit. Got a call from my boss yesterday, asking what’s an “inversion curve” and her peer was talking to their group about the yield curve and how that means we’re all fucked.

    This is the equivalency of my brother-in-law who wanted to buy .coms or gold before they crashed. Everyone’s talking about this. All of us can’t be right.

    Not talking greasy, just wondering why CNBC and some non-profit CEO in South Dakota have become the next Granville Market Letter…

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