iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,854 Blog Posts

American-Iranian Row Has Oil Lovers Willingly Jumping into the Tar Pit

You’re gonna get painted by going long oil during the summer months. This isn’t the time to go long, believe me.

Here’s the seasonality data from Exodus for the oil majors. Notice how no one gives a fuck about oil this time of year?

Here’s the news that is likely to get those oil lovers to add to their positions on Monday. It’s a trap, god damn it.

U.S. special representative to Iran, Brian Hook, told CNBC on Saturday that the U.S. is going to increase sanctions on Iran.

“We are going to increase our sanctions on Iran and continue our foreign policy,” Hook told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

Hook said that a lot of pressure is needed in order to address Iran’s “regional aggression” and the a new foreign policy devised by the U.S. aims to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

“When the President (Trump) got out of the Iran deal, we put a new foreign policy that does a couple of things. It is going to deny the regime the revenue that it needs to run a violent and expansionist foreign policy. But it is also designed to bring them back to the negotiating table,” Hook said.

How can I be certain? Because I remember the answers. Anyone recall getting lured into oil stocks during the Iraq war? Yeah, it was a whole lotta rhetoric, which resulted in a giant nothing-burger.

Here is the seasonality stats for XOM one month before the 2003 Iraq invasion and three months following.

XOM seasonality, Iraq invasion, coalition of the willing

Feb: -0.4%
March (WAR MONTH): +2.04%
April: -0.48%
May: +2.25%
June: -1.70%

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12 comments

  1. indexjoe

    $OXY is SAFU

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  2. juice

    I don’t know boss. The good Iranians say “If we can’t sell our oil through the Straits of Whoremooz, no one will, and that is what all their actions/aggressions have been about. More sanctions won’t do squat. Therefore, the Iranians have Trump over their oil barrels and they know it.

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    • ferd

      It’s all part of Trump’s plan. Disruption in exports of oil through the straights will hurt the Chinese bigly, while we’ll do relatively fine. He’ll leverage our backing down re Iran to get the Chicoms to dance to our tune on trade and on Kim’s nukes. Art of the deal. Genius.

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      • juice

        hmmm … interwesting

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        • ferd

          Was just kidding ..although it could be spun that way if he’s lucky. But I’d guess we’re just bumbling around with with Trump trying to restrain our advocates for The Greater Holocaust (Christian Zionists). One should wonder, however, what forces got Trump to appoint Pompeo and others of the Burn Everyone ilk in the first place?

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      • 99 lead balloons
        99 lead balloons

        I don’t think there is a plan at all.

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        • cancel19

          There is always a plan. Wether it’s successful or not is another issue.

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      • cheesefries

        Exactly

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    • cheesefries

      Obama’s strategy of paying off the Iranians to stop uranium enrichment was a total and complete failure. Blaming the Zionist does not take away the fact that a nuclear capable Iran would be a constant threat to the Middle East and Europe.

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  3. mx2101

    My view-

    I’d like for politicians on both sides of the aisle to spend more of their time minding the store here in the USA. Funny how BOTH political parties campaign helping American daily life, infrastructure, America first, etc. Yet once in office, they consider the world their oyster.

    I think it is a diversion. They are more accountable to voters on domestic affairs, compared to something overseas. Domestic issues are complex and a lot of work. Much easier to make noise internationally than to fund a trillion dollars of infrastructure.

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  4. ferd

    Are there folks, both here and among our adversaries, musing about the inevitable reset? People who think triggering it now would be to their advantage?

    Adversaries who think closing the straights would trigger a disruption that would end of the dominance of the USD as a quadrillion or so of derivatives collapse. Or are there “friends” here who see it as advantageous to be able to blame the inevitable reset on Iran’s blocking oil exports? I’d guess it’s more likely the brinkmanship junkies will be calmly managed and will fade away for awhile, but who knows.

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