You’re gonna get painted by going long oil during the summer months. This isn’t the time to go long, believe me.
Here’s the seasonality data from Exodus for the oil majors. Notice how no one gives a fuck about oil this time of year?
Here’s the news that is likely to get those oil lovers to add to their positions on Monday. It’s a trap, god damn it.
U.S. special representative to Iran, Brian Hook, told CNBC on Saturday that the U.S. is going to increase sanctions on Iran.
“We are going to increase our sanctions on Iran and continue our foreign policy,” Hook told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.
Hook said that a lot of pressure is needed in order to address Iran’s “regional aggression” and the a new foreign policy devised by the U.S. aims to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
“When the President (Trump) got out of the Iran deal, we put a new foreign policy that does a couple of things. It is going to deny the regime the revenue that it needs to run a violent and expansionist foreign policy. But it is also designed to bring them back to the negotiating table,” Hook said.
How can I be certain? Because I remember the answers. Anyone recall getting lured into oil stocks during the Iraq war? Yeah, it was a whole lotta rhetoric, which resulted in a giant nothing-burger.
Here is the seasonality stats for XOM one month before the 2003 Iraq invasion and three months following.
XOM seasonality, Iraq invasion, coalition of the willing
March (WAR MONTH): +2.04%