According to the Fed Watch tool created by the boozehounds at the CME — the Fed is going to cut rates 3 times before year end. This might seem foreign to all of you — but the odds are the odds and betting people are rolling the dice on this occurrence.
Over the past few days, seemingly responsible analysts at Goldman and UBS have countered this notion, suggesting it would be retarded to cut rates with unemployment at 3.6% and markets near record highs.
UBS
“While the Fed may eventually be forced to support growth, especially if the ongoing trade dispute with China inflicts lasting damage on capital spending and employment, we don’t expect a rate cut soon,” says Mark Haefele, UBS’ global chief investment officer.
UBS believes recent economic data has been “mixed,” rather than weak, which don’t warrant an easing of monetary policy anytime soon.
The bank cited unemployment rate “at a multi-decade low of 3.6%,” “robust demand for workers” and high consumer confidence.
Goldman
Although it is a close call, we still expect the FOMC to keep the funds rate unchanged in the remainder of the year,” says Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist.
Chairman Jerome Powell said last week the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” Goldman said it was not a strong hint of an upcoming cut.
The fed funds futures market is pointing to a nearly 70% chance of a rate cut in July and about 60% probability of three rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Shut the fuck up UBS and Goldman — you know nothing. The Fed and their terrible ways have kept markets from achieving a grande eloquence unseen since the 1920s. If it weren’t for the Fed, according to POTUS, the market would be 10,0000 points higher. Ergo, and this goes without saying, The Fed should now cut interest rates by 100bps in order to give the people its 10,000 points.
Do not stand in the way of progress, mate. Futures might be soft this morning, but I bet they wouldn’t if the Fed had DONE THEIR JOB and lowered rates and started buying fucking mortgage bonds again.
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Fully loaded with silver here. Also got calls on SLV. Low risk entry. Gonna break out of wedge and out of “aversion”. No charge for this call Mr Fly.
best of luck; some year you may be right, or not
they’ve been manipmanating [sic] metals prices for decades; why on earth do you think it will stop next month?
been there; done that
no more pissing away money on calls for me; i have new things to piss it away on
when bitcoin approached the price of gold – around $1,000. I thought, which has the better upside? I sold all my stupid metals and dropped it in bitcoin.
fast forward to today: gold: $1,338; bitcoin: $8,009.
An easy way to buy: get the Cashapp. Connect a small, separate bank acct. I opened an account at a credit union just for this purpose. If they shut my acct down for bitcoin “activity”; I should be ok. But Square (cashapp) is a fairly mainstream company.
You sound religious re bitcoins. Silver isn’t a religion with me. I figure it’s got a nice set-up to draw in the religious and move a good 60 cents north. If wrong, I’ll be out (except for the options) before it gets to the low of a couple days ago.
No, not a religion; just speculating. If something better appears; I’ll be gone in a second.
If you’re good at trading; good for you.
Crypto is the top performing asset class over the last decade. Fiduciaries are violating their mandates by owning -0-
That will change at some point.