If I look at a section of a wall that isn’t painted correctly, or an edge of travertine that wasn’t quite lined up right, I obsess over it until it is corrected. Small things transcend every facet of my life, from portfolio allocation, to wording of an email that must convey a certain message, to this blog– and most intently on The PPT (ask Vincenzo Illuminati), especially the new version in BETA.
I am trying to understand this market, post QE3. We’re not trading healthy and the important QE3 sectors are getting hit the hardest. The only logical deduction is the weak hands are being flushed out–the fucktards who went long AFTER QE3 was announced. Another thing that is beginning to bother me is the middle east. Tensions have never been higher and Israel is running out of time.
In the real world, away from QE and insane budget deficits, things aren’t so peachy. You can wake up one morning to reports of Israeli jets bombing the adobe out of Tehran, with S&P futures down 50. There are significant global risks to stability that cannot be ignored when investing today.
I’ve never had a lot of luck in October. It’s one of those months that tricks me, one way or another. My best months are from January to May, consistently, for more than 15 years in the business.
Plainly, I am going to cut losses on a multitude of my positions and not reinvest the proceeds– should markets continue lower this week. I’ll make it up later, when I have a better grasp on the direction.
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Lets not lose focus on the market here. Its 2 billion dollars a trading day by the fed. That will make an impact. We will look back like after we did on QE1 and QE2 and say man I should have just held. Nothing changes people free money is free money.
Fly, please comment on the gun play involving Rick Rozay.
I commented on twitter last night. Animals
Loving the Daudmau5
Yes, I saw those Twitter comments, and made a quick Instagram appearance, but then changed my mind, and I don’t know why.
Yeah!
I’m easily confused, at times–it’s my best excuse.
I was at the Walden Galleria mall in Buffalo this weekend and I have to say that in my opinion the mall seemed to be extremely busy. Mind you this mall is close to the Canadian border and I along with the majority of shoppers, (judging by the number of Ontario license plates in the parking lot), appeared to be Canadian. So it is possible that this mall is not representative of all other shopping malls in the U.S. but it is also possible that this is an indication that retail could be strong going into the Christmas season.
Since I am a shareholder of KIRK, I had a chance to set foot in one of their stores for the very first time to see what The Fly has gotten me into to (No sarcasm)! They sell a variety of inexpensive home decor that includes framed art, mirrors, candles, lamps, picture frames, accent rugs, garden accessories, artificial flowers and seasonal merchandise. They seemed to be very busy and I think they should do very well going into the Christmas season.
I went into three footwear stores that carried Deckers (DECK) UGG brand and asked staff in all of them how they were selling. Now they could have all been making this shit up but everyone I spoke to told me that the UGGS were selling great!
One store in particular had a large selection of UGGS that included a lot of new styles over last year. I stood outside this store and saw three pairs of UGGS being sold in a matter of 10 minutes! I know 3 pairs in 10 minutes doesn’t mean shit but I thought it was still impressive! Most of the people coming in the store at that time were taking a good look at them. All of the stores had a selection of men’s UGGS as well.
You hear all the analysts saying that UGG represents approximately 80% of Deckers Outdoor business and that that brand is a fad that is going out of style.
Keep in mind, you were in fucking Buffalo, not exactly a bastion of style and trend setting.
Buffalo represents 80% of the U.S.A.
Are you out of your mind?
If Buffalo represents 80% of the US then I’ll be moving to Mexico. What a wretched place.
Y.
Even with my roots planted deeper than you asked, Buffalo ain’t a template for the market
Mind you, most movers and shakers headed to MI. E.g. frank Lloyd Wright is one of our illustrious notables.
The analysts are referring specifically to the floppy style boot lined with sheepskin.
UGGs is much more than this one style!
They make slippers, sandals, leather boots, leather shoes, handbags and winter accessories for both men and women with many more styles added to this season’s lineup.
I have to admit, I own stock in DECK and even though I didn’t catch the lows I did average down, so I’m rooting for this stock to turn around and hoping that Sam Poser from Sterne Agee ends up having to eat his own dick!
I sold a pair of my sister’s UGGs on Ebay. I had 5 bids. Listed them for 55 dollars and they sold for 115.
Did anybody tell your sister?
DECK goes lower. It is the RIMM of footware.
I don’t think so! We’ll see.
I will root for you. But Sam Poser from Sterne says it goes lower. Therefore, it goes lower.
UGG Australia fall 2012 footwear collection
http://www.examiner.com/article/ugg-australia-fall-2012-footwer-collection
JTU…Just went thru the collection and it sucks. Those Mules have been around previous seasons and I have worn them…they bite. The rest of the stuff looks like old Doc Martins. Uggs comfy boots that should be so yesterday, but they are soooo comfy..darn you Uggs, I just can’t stop wearing you in Winter…so Uggs still works but most of us have too many already so throw in a new sheepskin liner and wear last years boots.
When it’s too cold for flip-flops
I switch to uggs, the short boots,
and buy a new pair every winter from the outlets for $70. Santa Barbara starts getting cold in November.
Okay, now I am really confused, I don’t even know which kind of winter footwear to shop for!
..and with colder days approaching, time is ticking. All I’ve got is opened toed styles, and I know I”m going to be forced into a decision because my feet do get really cold, even in summer!
So long as the grand equation doesn’t change, you will be right sooner rather than later.
Risk of nuclear Iran > Risk of conventional war with pre-nuclear Iran.
Which excites you more? Waking up to futures up 50 or down 50? (Current positions aside) The sheer terror that strikes the hearts of even the bravest market participants with a lock limit down is what excites me.
eur/usd under 1.2733 would excite me tomorrow morning. China on Vacation is normally good for us bears..
A mall parking lot near Washington DC was absolutely packed this weekend. It was also full when economic news was terrible. My conclusion is Joe middle/lower class is an idiot.
more like a drone, probably remote-controlled by Lifeline phones!
Herr Dr Fly, is there any particular thing that prompts your current assessment of the Middle East? Something change there or just your opinion?
As for me, I take it as a given that things will go to hell in a hand basket there sooner rather than later. I puzzle about where to be invested when the time comes.
The other thing that has me wide awake when I should be sleeping is the EU and its pending meltdown.The hole they are digging just keeps getting bigger. What is the play/hedge for that event?
Hope you feeling better as I pop this market overnight for you as only Partridge can.
Good day.
Remember $EXK? Anyone still holding?
The silver company from FLY’s trade list.
It’s @ 10.25, that was a 25% gain to be had in three months.
I’m still holding.
Congratulations on your patience and discipline 😉 I missed out.
What else you holding?
I’ve got some pretty risky stocks, too many in fact! Among them I hold, OSG, AKS, DDD, PAAS and CLF just to name a few.
Still holding as well (from 8.52).
Don’t normally talk my book, but…holding BSET as well (from 9.11). It is an old-man-buffet-style turnaround that is going well so far.
In a switch the Clam goes short with his $2Bil a day. The Princeton economists have determined that shortsellers really create the most stimulus for the economy with their anticipated shortsqueezes and clearing out of the deadwood in the private sector. This creates more opportunity for public sector jobs and growth of the government sector which benefits everyone more than private business.
http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/ben-fulford-united-states-of-america-corporation-looting-individual-bank-accounts-to-postpone-bankruptcy-october-1-2012/
ISM index ahead of expectations!
Actual 51.5 from 49.6.
This is the first increase in 3 months! Markets should get a boost from this.
My assumption is that the Israelis will blow up some nuke plants at some point. It’s not a matter of “if”, only when.
imo, Obama does not need a war to win the election, ergo he’s probably putting as much pressure as possible on Israel to do nothing pre-Nov.
Of course, Tehran may have different plans and bombs can go off tomorrow.
USA should GIVE Iran ten nukes to shut Israel up.
It’s called “Mutually Assured Destruction” and it WORKS. The USA and Russia did that for 30 years, and no nukes were launched.