You do realize nothing has been done at the Fed or ECB, right? Up until now, the markets have been running on anticipation of easing and/or bailout money for Italy and Spain. The problem with going all in long here is the absence of a real physical presence of these central banks in the system. Mind you, QE is not just an acronym. When the Fed does quantitative easing , they literally expand the money supply, thereby boosting asset prices.
Today’s milquetoast response to Federal Reserve inaction can be attributed to momentum traders and short sellers capitulating. Fed days are always ranked with peasants. I suspect the real flavor of the market will be tasted over the next week.
Until I am certain we are going much higher, I will keep my cash levels at around 40%.
Some names of interest are SODA, KRO, MEA, MTL and TCK. I will be expanding upon my watchlist tonight and will post it inside of The PPT.
65 Responses to IT’S GONNA BE A HOT SUMMER
The Fly is God.
Hot, yes. And probably boring. Figure we’ll put in a top over the next few weeks in prep for an autumn puke.
You are a broken record. Come up with some long ideas, else lose credibility.
heres one for you …….MU…..there is a conference call on 6/20…i dont have time to look into this ,but if it seems ok to you would you let me know please …
My long ideas have been on the record and are kicking ass. Check out my blog entries. $CHK? Have it, and on the record. $JPM? Have it, and on the record. Kinda funny that I’m more bearish than most on her, and yet my long picks are probably better than those of the bulls.
… dial it down, John … lest you be bunking’ wif me and Lenny Dykstra and doin’ our laundry !
Skins are damn thin around here … and … sadly “hot opinions” will git yer ass banned !
Just sayin’ …
I am in hiding.
fuckin summertime bitches
BTU did not want to go down today followng yesterday’s 3% up.
I watch FCX as forecaster of things to come and it said little to nothing today!
if your set on being long try this on for size >>>FAS
Finally its summertime. This video posted by Le Fly always marks the beginning of summer for me. For the past 6 years I have anticipated it and celebrated. Its summah time bitches.
105 in NYC today
$VHC and $IDIX should be good ‘investments’ this summer. Both are potential take out targets in the near term (6 months to a year). $OCZ is undervalued and should turn a profit next Q, I’m expecting a beat there; same goes for $LGF.
I’m a big fan of the Fly’s taste in music. So much so that I compiled a list of all youtube videos posted since 2008.
I’m using a decent script called youtubedl to download as mp3′s. Lots of links are dead, but there are no duplicates. Just thought I’d share.
I took off my C 28 calls, the rest of my stocks blew chunks – still eked out a profit. Going to lighten up more tomorrow.
ha, that’s sick
I put together a script last night to pull out all the youtube links from each page. It worked pretty slick.
Youtube seems to be throttling my download though, I guess they don’t like robots hitting their page.
do you think the government should do their job, instead of makin it harder ?
QE expands the monetary base, but does not necessarily expand the monetary supply. Banks need to lend to expand the supply. So QE is ineffective unless banks lend, which they are not doing. QE is mostly psychological and based on expectations, with an asset boost thrown in due to lower interest rates and thus a lower discount rate.
Good. And if the heat doesn’t kill the elderly this summer..I will
Suspect the action today was meaningless. Fucking robots squaring the books. The real reaction to no more coke comes soon.
I’m long $FIO from $18.48. I see a potential run up to $26 in the short term, but over the next few quarters where the backlog is realized they should start to blow shit up.
Obama claims executive privelege over documents he claims not to have seen. What are they hiding? This should be no big deal. The absurdity continues.
And yet our peerless gum chewing leader has no reservation whatsoever about leaking sensitive national security details to the world’s press.
Fly, like the TCK call, CAT on the radar too. Got beat up last little while.
If we get the coke do you like the heavily shorted names like NFLX for a squeeze?
What about SD and KS?
Mr. Ichimoku says we go “ROWER” from here !
hints of racism there Alf?
… Racism ?
… Really ?
Give me a fuckin’ break, PAL !!!
Rower for Lower…. yeah, just a bit of an old racist joke. And it never was very funny.
… while I will readily concede that it was “never really funny” … to call it “racist” seems a bit of a reach to me !
I can certainly assure you it was never my intent to offend … and IF I did … I am sincerely apologetic !
Apparently, racial slurs and bigotry are just fine and dandy WRT the POTUS !
Where’s the outrage, there ?
Fuck you clowns !!!
Mr. Ichimoku says we go “LOWER” from here !
We good ?
This is not the fucking UN, RALF can say whatever the fruck he wants to say.
… from prison !
Far more “smelly garbage” is generated here on this site EVERYDAY… than ANYTHING I have EVER uttered !
And yet … I sit here … unjustly and wrongly victimized !
“I bet he was finger fucked in the ass by an Uncle when he was a kid.”
This line was directed at a tabbed blogger.
COMPLETE BULLSHIT !!!
Do not press
My generosity alf
Ben & Weezy have the situation under control.
Short oil long natty gas. Thats my trade for the summer.
Energy boom coming in the US. No brainer as the economy continues to sink.
IMO this is the only real “investment” in today’s market that will pay off longer term. Long D, TGP, and CHK for now.
Will add on any pullback.
Why short oil? Agree with a stab at natty but the mid east is due to go full retard anyday now. It does every summer.
Because we are going to be producing oil by the boatloads here in the next 5 years.
Look at natty prices if you want a preview of what happens when a crapload of oil hits the market in a crappy economy.
Lots of companies are converting from oil over to natty as well. It’s a nice pair trade IMO.
Long oil under $76. Then a little war hanky-panky to get it moving.
Actually, I was thinking of shorting oil at the $100 range — and then double-down long once it hits below $80, $75 range.
But you can get creamed on one headline — the hell with old-fashion supply and demand — hinting at further war with Iran, Syria and now, even Russia.
And my instincts tell me, war is probably on the agenda for a good last minute pre-election distraction. And it’s kinda what the oil barons prefer for their political contributions anyway.
Hot Microcaps for $ 600, Alex.
What are XPO, HDSN, ASEI and ECOL ?
Name two microcaps with big dividends that fell out of favor on lumpy earnings, and two without dividends but an awesome story that have already tripled, with room for another big move soon. One of them with a legendary CEO.
SA has a current article on HDSN, and some older stuff on XPO.
Of course, buy and hold perma longs would think this way. I think your performance mirrors this strategy.
Jeremy, can you push my last comment from awaiting moderation ? Thanks.
What exactly has been accomplished in Europe?
Last I saw they were still trying to figure out who was going to pay. Once again we wait on Euro noise
Daily OEW Recap:
“Today’s FED action, or FED inaction to some, and the resulting market activity. Suggests Minor wave 3 may have ended at SPX 1363/1362 and the current pullback is Minor 4. Under this scenario Minor 4 should not overlap the Minor wave 1 high at SPX 1336, or worse case SPX 1329. Should this occur the entire move from SPX 1267-1363 was likely an ABC rally in an ongoing downtrend. Should the pullback hold support, SPX 1342/47 or 1335/36, and move to new rally highs. Then we can count five waves up from the SPX 1267 low, and the potential uptrend remains intact.”
Picks: Also watching KRO … Bot SM & DVN within last week and eying KBR as well
… so, share with us how YOU plan to “trade” this … and by all means please feel free to be specific !
Otherwise, (with all due respect) you’re just cutNpastin’ !
I’m not a day trader … swing (short/medium term) trades and try to stay invested until a CIT is confirmed. So far we have not confirmed a continuing decline and remain in an uptrend from 1267 unless we have a pullback that breaks below the first wave up high between 1329-1326. If that occurs then I concede we were in a corrective uptrend within a continuing downtrend and pull in my horns while adding to inverse ETF’s.
… so … 1329 to 1326 (S&P) is your line in the sand to git your “bear suit” washedNpressed and ready for action ?
Sorry … 1329-1336 … Yes!
and you? When will you cover your shorts and embrace the bull?
… I just can’t give a numbeir on the S&P where my bias would suddenly reverse … and “turn on a dime” (Short to Long) !
Just NOT the way I manage my exposure !
I am first and foremost … a “chart monkey” ! And, from what I see … NOW … I cannot justify being LONG this “Market” !
I will acquiesce when I see the need !
love the…” If/Then”
trading plan thought process !
Likewise, when do you concede this is the next up leg in a bull market and close out your shorts? You must be getting whipsawed and losing more than you’re making. If you give us that BS about adding to your shorts as we make new highs I’ll have to write you off as another loser in the mold of DevilDog who is either FOS or on the way to BK.
So there’s a Wave theory for up, and a Wave theory for down. Could go either way and the Wave theory remains intact no matter what.
A case can be made that the downtrend (Primary Wave2) has not completed and that this uptrend was an A(up)B(dwn)C(up) consolidation that just ended at our recent highs (1363) and we are now completing the final move down to new lows for Primary Wave II. That becomes a distinct possibility if we break 1329 on the downside. If we don’t and make another new high then that would confirm we are in Intermediate wave3 up of Primary Wave III up which should take us to roughly SPX 1500.
I remain bullish until otherwise convinced … QE out of Europe is just as good as from our own Clam.
I believe we are heading to 1100-1150 on the S&P. however, ill wait in cash rather than shorting it down.
Most of us inside 12631 have been heavy cash for a while, toying with limited positions like a cat with a ball of yarn. Which is the beauty of the traders there, no egos or stupid shit, just a lot of actionable ideas and advice. I suspect more of the same until Europe finally nears implosion and The Bernank is forced to deploy Big Bertha. But even if I’m wrong, we’ll continue to trade what we see and not trade the noise.
What do you see besides charts? I see the same charts …
I’m in Fly’s camp that there is no way that the illuminati concede their power/wealth to deflation.
We just saw an example of what can happen when positive news comes out of Europe or China.
The Clam knows all and isn’t about to shoot his wad if liquidity is coming shortly from the Germans. He’s stretched the twist to appease the market and stands ready should Germany get cold feet.
Either way I’m pressing my longs for a bigger payoff than Fly is willing to accept but I don’t manage OPM. I can take a little more risk as I’m smaller and quicker especially when I need to be …
Right he is, I should have more cash but I’m waiting for a clear sign at this crossroad and will adjust accordingly once the direction is confirmed.
Sounds about right. We shall see.
We just saw a bounce. No clue if positive news out of china or europe had anything to do with it. The tape must have free money. No QE we go right back down. It is stupid simple.
QE being any trillion dollar injection from anywhere. Right now the tape is sucking fumes from the empty LTRO pipe.
The Clam more or less said he’s not doing jack squat till he sees the whites of their eyes. So it’s up to Europe to roll in their own feces until they figure it out. If they don’t, he wheels out Big Bertha. So,I think we agree on that.
ocz, lookin for a 30% gain by late summer.
A good date to buy leap puts on your favorite index as the world prepares to darken into its final days.
do iphones work in hell?