GREETINGS FROM ROMANIA

I am sure Dennis Gartman is long of VXX in Swiss Francs today, after going short of gold against Brazilian Reals. The commodity story is a heavy bag to carry now, as hedge funds close out the year with staggering losses. As you know, the biggest and the worst funds are “long of” commodity related stocks. To avoid unnecessary carnage, I advise to steer clear of any commodity related stock that has heavy institutional ownership.

At the same time, I strongly advise that you avoid shorting tech stocks. The balance sheets are too good and the sector is ripe for consolidation. Instead of paying divvys. managers might opt to buy businesses, as an avenue to park cash. If shorting is your thing, stick with the basic materials/financials. Or, you can fuck around with retail. However, retail is always retarded.

With my money, I find myself frozen, unable to do anything. I am long TLT, WNR, GSVC and a little TNA; but most of my money (70%) is in cash. I’d like to say I am waiting for a dip buying opportunity. But, even if it was given to me on a silver platter, I’d have a difficult time crawling out of my shell.

Look, I have gains for the year and I want to keep them. I’m not interested in taking unnecessary risk, during the month of September, a month infamous for wiping out overzealous traders. I am running my screens and preparing the grounds for eventual war, but doing so from the safety of my “COWARD-MOBILE”, parked in the high mountains of Romania, amidst goats and grass.

Gun to my head: we rally. However, I can say all sorts of shit from my “COWARD-MOBILE”, so take it with a grain of salt.

UPDATE: I sold TNA