I am sensing a major flush out into the bell. No one will want to stay long into a potential Greek default, early next week. I misjudged the timing on these events, thinking we had more time to boil the dog. Sadly, time has run out and the dog is readying to be served, apple in mouth. Of course this is a mortifying visualization for you dog lovers, which is why I wrote it. The world is forced to eat dog sandwiches and no one wants them.
Are you going to have yours with olive oil or kraut?
Into the blood, I sold out of FL, TBT, TNA calls, TBT +calls, half of CLF, half of VMW. My current cash position is 60%. Also, going against my better judgement, I took the proceeds from my options trades gone bad and tossed them into TZA calls, short duration, at the money.
Even though I had these visions in my head, promoting Gorilla rallies and Rick Ross songs amidst celebratory executions, things didn’t go my way. I wish they would have; but the market sucks dick. So, instead of dying inside these coffins, I opted to raise cash and hedge my personal account.
Naturally, I will keep WNR and GSVC; but everything else is subject to sale. However, I will not be initiating short positions down at these levels. The risk-reward simply isn’t there, especially due to the lunatic style volatility. It is better, in my opinion, to wait this out and buy a crash, should we be so lucky enough to get one.
UPDATE: I bought 20,000 TLT
UPDATE II: I sold out of CLF and VMW, raising cash to 70%.
The Fly is God.
alf wins this round:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B1QxOmbMZ0
Indeud. Alf wins to live another day. What a character that one is, eh?
He’s a character alright! Polarizing, maddeningly controvercial, occassionally hilarious, occasionally market-clairvoyant (like today), too prolific, and always odd. I thought for sure he’d be going back to melmac for eating cats, presenting us with the syntax of an inebriated grade 8 kid, or being really wrong on this call. He won the round. Will he win the fight?
I’m actually considering leaving instructions with my wife … to have that read at my eulogy !
.
AIG
Dammit.
anger -vs- reason. anger is winning.
gigantic worldwide temper tantrums -vs- the well being of billions of people…
One sells, or refrains from buying, when one believes that stocks will go down in the future. Anger? I think not. And speaking of reason, do you not think that a worldwide banking crisis and the potential economic fallout could possibly affect future earnings? It may not happen, but it sure as hell can.
1914 : Europe population (on all sides) is welcoming the declaration of war with great enthusiasm.
Olive oil on my dog, please.
you never find a stray dog in some Asian countries.
or a stray dog in Mexico that is not a nursing female. A strange observation I made years ago whilst traveling there.
I love the AAPL in its mouth..enjoy your Bow Wow Luau…
Krone safe haven?
Against the Euro only. Ruggy I couldn’t find you at your worksite, hope you saw notes on SEK and NOK in diary.
gotta love u man don’t the remember how it goes but when the circumstance are changed i changed my opinion and that’s totally u great job.
bottom line u r one of the honestest guys out there posting it live on your blog
I try to keep it real.
“honestest”?
that must be razor’s brother.
LOL
I go to practice my putting and then I come back to this.
I miss something?
Bought some SMH @28.52 (stop @28.45) for a day trade.
Don’t know why chip makers are holding up but I don’t ask why.
Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if something about them is in Barrons tomorrow and the guy who runs the printing machines there is buying.
My “wanna milly” account started yesterday in SXPU calls with 14K now stands at 24K. Took some today’s profits and bought OCT COF Puts thanks to Le Fly’s Paulson scan in the PPT. To be continued.
This is surely not a surprise with 1 year Greek gov bond yields pushing 100%, over 90% for days. Question is, how much of this is priced in? OR is the market just that far behind that the actual default will send us into a vortex of the most epic proportions?
MB
Those prices don’t worry the Greeks because they aren’t going to the market to fund anymore as the EU funds them at around 5%… stupid fuckers.
Greek bond prices are just a loose indicator now of what sentiment is like.
Fair enough mate. Point was, you don’t see yields like that, nor CDS where they’re at without a default being close to a forgone conclusion; it’s a when not an if. To be honest, who the fuck knows with this market. We continued to melt higher, skirting around Europe all the while the same problems where there. It wasn’t until S&P moved on the US that we finally started to crater.
Really wish you fuckers would quit trying to shake me out.
This could be one huge fucking head fake by Germany to force the Greeks into agreeing with the deal. It still looks like it would be more costly for the greeks and the Germans to pull out, however you never know in this situation as anyone could pull the trigger. Perhaps the germans have figured out that it would be best for them to let it go and they protect the banks. This shit is really fluid though.
I’m sort as hell in the Euro, but will get out before the end of the day because you just don’t know what’s cooking.
I’m also a little surprised 10 year Italian bonds haven’t taken a bigger hit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND&n=y
end of the euro hurts germany long term helps everybody else…
“This could be one huge fucking head fake by Germany to force the Greeks into agreeing with the deal.”
Indued.
This isn’t just about cost, guys.
There are other issues here at work, like sovereignty, nationalism, and pride.
Don’t think the Germans are just going to crunch the numbers and go, “well, it’s cheaper for us to pay up and then cede our national identity to some multi-national governmental panel.”
If we had a common currency with Canda and Mexico, and something like this happened, do you really think we’d just go “all in” and form what amounts to a new culture with the two?
I doubt it. We’d cut loose and threaten to murder any politician who dared try and integrate us. Because this is America.
This isn’t a fucking number game to the Germans. It’s their national identity at stake.
Market Commentary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgi3HS0uczk
Everybody on the planet is watching ascending trendline on the /ES right now.
The 9/11 anniversary threat alert didn’t help either.
nice set of comments today, j
oh thks dude.
Fucking Euro just broke through 1.3650.. if it heads into the 1.35’s stocks are going to lose 400+ today.
wouldn’t that mean you can buy stocks cheaper ???
you should say ‘thank you’ if it happens …
Jose, you’re talking incoherent swill. What are you trying to say?
Sold out of my FNSR position this morning, pissed that I didn’t yesterday for a bigger gain. I honestly thought we would get a bounce today after Obama’s speech, oh well. This roasting should present plenty of opportunities for next week.
the market is fucking me mercilessly, fuck, fuck, fuck
trying not to answer the fucking phone because I know it is the margin dude calling …
dumped tna at 8am,
Watch AAPL for the panic…people are going to start selling what they can to de-risk.
Once again, I emerge from the shadows to do my special little jig on the face of champagne socialists everywhere. Can I get a 1.9% on the 10year bond?
DO THE MOTHERFUCKING HUGH BITCHES
You are buying tobacco stocks then?
UPDATE I: Le Fly is now doing the Hugh too. Indeud.
All these people waiting to buy a major flush tells me it won’t happen.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we trade higher from here.
The world as we know it will not end this weekend, or this year. Some crack-brained bailout will be crafted. You know it will. Don’t be short when that happens.
no one is expecting a major flush !!!
Really? I think you are mistaken.
You might be right. But the fact that people still want to buy the dips could also be evidence that we aren’t anywhere near a real bottom. I tend to be a bull so would prefer your thesis. But it’s hard to interpret the recent action with a bull market. The volatility and huge swings we’ve seen both ways strikes me as more consistent with a bear one.
Mark
This is all a response to Europe and the clusterfuck going on there otherwise the US market would have been fine.
However if Greece goes the US market will lose 1000 points easy.
unless all the flush buyers start buying at -400.
True — but a bailout will trump a bear. I’m staying mostly long. Actually I just sold most of my VXX and FAZ hedges. I see internals improving somewhat here.
Unless investors decide they’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends. Anyway, I hope you’re right because I’m net long too.
Le Fly thinks it is highly likely which in itself raises the probability of Le Flush.
SkyTrader,
Do you see that giant bear flag on your SPY chart?? It’s staring right at you. No way we don’t break down sooner than later.
Yep I see it JL. I wouldn’t count much on TA these days though. News is driving this market right now.
Funny how TA is bearish and news is bearish.
Isn’t there a G7,14,28-(pick a number)this weekend and isn’t there also a likelihood of short covering ahead of same?
It’s a Europe thing, TC so G7 bullshiters wouldn’t say much.
There could be something coming out this weekend, but these eurotrash move at glacial pace.
Euro emergency time seems to be like 3 months.
Fuckers, pick up your phones!!!
hahahaha
fuck, I absolutely refuse, and I am turning off the fucking ringer …
“The Margin Dude” + that avatar.
Omigod I think I just pissed my pants.
_________
Not a good day for the Paulson funds – what I’d give to be a fly(no pun) on their wall today.
what happened to Paulson, did he lose a few billion ???
he painted a bull’s eye on his ass
greece goes down the shitter, or warren just dies cause he got buyers remorse.
Another “Paulson Short” JOE getting crushed on big volume. PPT !!!
Into the FAZmobile
http://youtu.be/8Ba9nHBgpRo fly did u make this vid?
EUO anyone?
Yep, I added yesterday.
Thinking about it more. No one is leaving the euro, although Greece may receive a haircut.
It’s almsot i9mpossible to leave the euro and would be like say the Scottish leaving the the British monetary union.
So what to do?
Perhaps buy some tits ‘n arse TNA on the close, maybe?
It’s fallen 10%.
I’m seriously thinking of taking my cash and buying that condo site on the moon my brother-in-law is hawking….
Long: $MOON
Fuck it, just bought a little TNA and going to freaking bed.
just bought some Euro against swiss here.
So … let’s recap shall we ?
.
Today so far … I have taken partial profits on my SHORT position !
And … I have added (ie. averaged down) on my LONG “hedge” !
.
Watching with great interest the 1150ish level on the S & P Index to see if it can hold !
If so (wishful thinking) … perhaps we catch a bounce !
—
I am NOW Currently :
~ 40% SHORT (via TYP)
~ 20% LONG (via FAS “hedge”)
~ 40% CASH
—
I’m GOLDEN !!
.
Alf is God!
Watch it, Alf.
Good trade Alf, but fuck you’re annoying.
Thanks, Sir Fly !
I’ll try to clean it up a tad !
BUT … know this … I have a serious exclamation point addiction !
.
Actually, your annoyance is so belligerent it’s funny. Don’t change a bit.
F ! U ! C ! K !
Y ! O ! U ! R !
E ! X ! C ! L ! A ! M ! A ! T ! I ! O ! N
P ! O ! I ! N ! T ! S !
Alf fuck the market and the market fuck me …
Congrats, Alf, for calling this decline. You may be irritating, with all the big spaces and CAPS in your posts. But you sure made a good trade here today.
I called, too. Fuckers just don’t answer!
fuck, dude, stop calling …
or you can call my ex, she has all my fucking money …
🙂
.
The domino effect will continue to accelerate.
Iceland, now Greece. Next up will be Italy,
Spain, perhaps France and the U.K. Once the ball gets rolling, Germany will isolate itself.
After that we’re next. Gold to the moon, then crater. Stock up on cigarettes and liquor for barter.
If you are holding longer than intraday, you are setting yourself up to get slaughtered.
My Challenger SRT is paid for and full of gas. The .40 Beretta is loaded and under the front seat as is the Mossberg pump in the trunk. I’m just waiting for the doorbell to ring to find the Fly on my front porch asking for a cup of sugar….
70% cash TZA hedge into the bell
Does SHOMP take sovereign default risk into account?
Thanks for keeping us posted, Fly.
Isn’t this important for them to get the next round on money?
2011 4:14 AM ET
Greece Committed to ‘Full Implementation’ of Bailout
The main headquarters of the Greek Finance Ministry sit in Athens. Photographer: Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg
Greek Debt Crisis, G-7 Meeting, German Politics
Play Video
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — German lawmaker Otto Fricke, the budget spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Free Democratic Party coalition partner, talks about political solutions to the Greek debt crisis. He speaks from Berlin with Owen Thomas on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos dismissed “rumors” of a Greek default, saying the nation is committed to “full implementation” of the terms of a July agreement for a second aid package.
“This isn’t the first time that this organized wave of rumors over Greece’s default has appeared,” Venizelos said in an e-mailed statement today. “This is a game that’s in bad taste, organized speculation that is directed against the euro region and the euro as a whole.”
Sounds like what the reps from Lehman said right before they went bankrupt.
Dick Fuld: “Fucking short sellers, ruining this company….(murmur murmur)…What do you mean, we’re out of fucking money!?”
All my shorts from yesterday going gung ho obviously. Posted earlier this morning-prognosis so far, thoughts on short term, intermediate term market direction. http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2011/09/09/prognosis-correct-so-far-where-are-we-headed-next/
Congrats, Stocksrider!
Thanks Froggie.
Alf is God…
Don’t tell me this fucker is going to rally into the close.
That’s from Stocksrider taking partial short profits there, LOL.
Perry looked like he had a badger on his head in debate. Obama looked like he had rows last night. This hurts the market. If Merkel looks hot this weekend SPY 126.90 tested.
Pressing “wanna milli” account short into the close.
There’s 3 dogs at my house. I’d be happy to donate to the bbq.
Don’t worry about the economy. No problem. We’ll assign our prettiest people to figure out and solve these problems for us. Maybe some of those American Idol winners. That would do it.
we only lost 300 points, fuck it, no big deal …
Good close for anyone who is short the market. A small rally on a day like this signifies more downside ahead and at the very least a test of todays lows. Charts are ugly. I think the bottom falls out next week. The last few weeks are almost a split image of Aug. Sept. 2008. Similarities are amazing. Substitute Lehman for Greece or vice versa. Fasten your seat S&P 800 in the cards late Sept early October.
I thought S&P 900 is the bottom per Sir Fly …
Just like the over reaction to the gulf oil spill – we are shitting ourselves over media melodrama. We’ve become a bunch of pussies. Compared to what we’ve gone thru historically, this Euro crisis is fuck all. It’s like we’re hunkering down for World War 3. Fuck me. Our ancestors would have a laugh. What’s the problem – can’t afford a 50in flat screen? And Obama’s ranting. It’s as if 91% of USA was out of work not the other way around.
Anyone been to the Gulf lately…
I don’t care why it’s happening, as long as I am on the right side.
your head is up your fucking ass big time
everybody is fucked, except Sir Fly … he is the trading God !!!
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