iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,247 Blog Posts

Happy to Get Some of My Money Back

My core positions (WNR, EMN, GSVC, CLF, DECK) are rising and I am happy to take back some of my money. However, I am not deploying any of my cash reserves ahead of the Fed. It’s too big of a gamble and I am not sure Bernanke will do another QE3. The market demands QE3 and if he ignores it, well, we’re gonna fucking tank. In order to motivate me to get back into the market, I need to see some momentum, with conviction. Who knows, perhaps the market will display some real risk appetite after the Fed announcement.

Whoever says they are “looking for the market to throw up” is a fucking imbecile. As of yesterday, we were more oversold than at anytime in recent history, even more so than 2008. To suggest the market needed to show more panic is disingenuous or that person has no idea how to read a tape. We don’t need more blood; we need fucking buyers.

I have a lot of cash on the sidelines and if I deploy it correctly I can easily make back my losses and more. While it’s true, I am all about risk and pushing the envelope, for now, I am more interested in seeing stability, rather than jumping in ahead of real buyers.

I’ve been trading this market since the mid-90’s and I’ve seen really bad drops, namely in ’97, ’98, 2000, 2001 and 2008. Heck, I am a fucking expert in witnessing market calamities. Anyone remember when the market halted trading back in 1998? During yesterday’s futures bloodbath (-300), following a -600+ day, was as bad as it gets. The rout in Asia, then the subsequent drops in Europe, were outright ridiculous. Germany went from +1.5% to -7% in less than 2 hours. That’s capitulation. It’s a washout. After all, Italian and Spanish 10yr yields have been easing. The funding crisis, seemingly, is being addressed. Therefore, as logic dictates, stocks have 1,000 points of near term upside.

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46 comments

  1. Robot

    You’re still the man,Fly.

    This is when you’re at your most dangerous.

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  2. JTU

    You see razorsedge, you never know when the bottom might be in. Yesterday you called me an idiot for wanting to buy the dip. I bought CLF,WNR,FCX and CVI. I could sell them all today and make a tidy profit but I’m choosing to hold onto them. We may not have seen the bottom but like I said yesterday, you have to buy good stocks when they are on sale when everyone else is scared.
    Yesterday you were scared!

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    • razorsedge

      no i wasnt scared, (all cash) i thought ur reason for buyin was misguided.as u saw the overnight action-300, at times, so congradulations on ur trades. and i hope they make money for u, it could of gone the other way.

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  3. mike mancini

    “10 screens, 1000 charts, fly is now ‘Ultimate Trader’ “

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    • shaz

      Hate that commercial 🙂

      Is 41 the number of years you’ve been stuck in the middle?

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  4. Yogi & Boo Boo

    I agree about the need for puking. The clowns who are saying that are asshats: Bove along with others that haven’t been around the block. They should have some homeless guy puke on them.

    Quahog Ben to the rescue!

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  5. Johnny Mnemonic

    Logic and this market are utterly separate.

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  6. TraderCaddy

    I recall the trading halt (about 3:15PM on a Fri) and all of the others including 1987 and pre- Desert Storm in early ’90s and the Iraq-Iran beat down in ’89-90 and the ’80-’82 market collapse as Volcker raised rates to kill inflation (I got 16% interest on my ML Ready Asset MMA).
    Unfortunately, this just does not feel like we have had a selling climax yet.
    That would be when we have cascading prices (like that Flash Crash last year) and the quotes are running 15-20 minutes behind.

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    • Bond Troll

      Those were not good days. May the Clam bless us and keep us, TradderCaddy.

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  7. the man

    the Italian and Spanish problems are far from over. I am very leery of this market and think it very dangerous to play it.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      On the flip side of that, people were saying European problems weren’t fixed last year, but that didn’t stop us from rallying 2,000 DOW.

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  8. John Travolta

    QE3 will just accomplish the same end results as the now worthless QE2 ponzi scam

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  9. jimmy_two_times

    Larry Meyer says no bail out at 2:15pm … Head fake?

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  10. jimmy_two_times

    no concerns of swissy trade unwinding? up over 400 pips today

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  11. ForexPhucker

    Serious Fly is way less fun than “I will murder you, crush your bones into dust and put you in my guests coffee” Fly. Never the less, I feel your pain as I too am stuck in the murder hole, for now.

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  12. pedro

    At this point, I’d be shocked to hear the Clam announce QE3. Rather, I expect that he’ll reaffirm the Fed’s longer term (perhaps with a specific date) commitment to a low rate environment. I also expect that he’ll emphasize the importance of the ECB’s Italian/Spanish bond buying and encourage them to continue to ease with reckless abandon. He’ll say QE3 is certainly an option, strictly reserved for an economy that’s on the verge of full-scale deflation — don’t think you can levy such a claim against the economy as it stands today.

    IMO, stocks sustain this morning’s bounce, despite everyone’s supposition that no QE3 = Meltdown of epic proportions.

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    • drummerboy

      thats all we can do to “reset” somewhat. deflate the shit out of everything till everyone thinks they have coin again,and then do the “15”minute turn the inflation switch on.thats how i see the easy logical way.or inflate gold to 3500,payback debts then deflate slightly to bring things back in line. without jobs. with jobs, then all they would have to do is nothing. it wont be both

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  13. FishHooks

    Who gives a fuck what the market thinks about QE3 – greed will be the downfall of this nation. We are right back where we were before QE2. How much good did that do us? Let the market take a big long morning shit to cleanse itself out. Just Sayn…

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  14. Robot

    I just sold my IDDC in the mid 68 range. Thks to the unspoken one. v

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  15. seeker

    Markets are deleveraging. Ben talks, markets tank to close down 3% for the day.

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  16. Gorilla in a Clown Suit
    Gorilla in a Clown Suit

    Will someone please rape me! Skull-fuck while on cocaine!!

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  17. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Where’s DevilDog?

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  18. 4fl3x

    Washout indeed. I watched the TF futures after close yesterday. Damn! Momo’s everywhere got liquidated.

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  19. The Fly

    relentless selling ahead of the Fed

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  20. Mike

    I am getting concerned re: your stubborness lately.

    cheers

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  21. Futures

    Fuck the Fed

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  22. razorsedge

    its like a fight between good and evil, gold n stocks, 1 will win

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  23. Johnny Mnemonic

    If you buy into this you’re a degenerate gambler, Casino-style.

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  24. Johnny2time

    Waiting for clarity from the Fed before slapping on my big XIV buy.

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    • razorsedge

      ive been watchin xiv all day tempted… u have a great grasp of the mkt.

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      • Johnny2time

        VIX futures in backwardation, once that shifts back to contango it’ll be off to the races.

        This is the general area where you want to accumulate XIV. Patience is everything right now.

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  25. pitbull

    THE DOG Barking fear WILL CONTINUE FROM MY FELLOW CANINE devil dog !!
    BREIF SNAP BACK RALLY TO SHORT SOON ? BARK, BARK !
    cnn bark fear is stonger ! bark , bark

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    • Turd Sammich Coming
      Turd Sammich Coming

      if you put a turd in a hotdog bun and call it a hotdog

      thats fine but its still a turd

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  26. bravo

    crack spreads are relentless….

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  27. riser3000

    If he announce QE (which he wont) – global markets will tank.

    If he FINALLY sticks to letting this play out – and SUPPORTS doing nothing…markets will RIP!

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  28. TraderCaddy

    The Fed is late.
    I believe Uncle Ben is still fly fishing in Jackson Hole.

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  29. TraderCaddy

    Mid 2013?
    Sure sounds like Japan 1989.
    A lost generation?

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  30. Trading_Nymph

    Mortal Kombat results… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZRSVvMLcrA

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  31. bravo

    Jim M cCaughan from Principal Global in the “decbox” sounds remarkably like Marvin the Martian, yes?

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  32. John Travolta

    Japan all over again!

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