Help?!!*
Hank Paulson, U.S. Bankruptcy Department, Goldman Sachs
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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That’s right – payback is a bitch 🙂 It’s going to be ugly and I’ll be wearing my satan suit (pitchfork included), playing my ‘muaaaahuuuahaaa tape’, while watching the charts drop below the stand of my new 30inch Cinema display (paid by Vince “Asshat†Farrell’s money).
ha, How could I help? I suppose I could short the banks down to levels so low that value buyers would step in and… oh that’s right, the value’s negative on most banks.
I consider the destruction of Downey Financial to have been a singular effort at the hands and proboscis of the Fly. Any thought on PCBC? As I expected, the Plungers are out pumping the futures. The bounce first?
Vince Farrel should fall victim to the love crush of a very large and amorous billy goat. Even a Romanian one. That he would enjoy it immensely is only an opinion and not a libelous statement of fact.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=awfJrYAkXD2g&refer=news
The bottom just got lower. Comedy.
Let’s see if this works…
Guess not. Eventually, I’ll figure out how to embed shit here.
-DT
Stocks are trash back to cash. Will buy NGA on next bounce around 11000. Maybe? Had to shut down my time machine computer and go to crystal ball. Balls cost less to run!!!
BOO YAH speaks….
Jim Cramer Blog
The Path Ahead Is Down
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
6/27/2008 7:10 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10423456.html
Sell everything. Nothing’s working. Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it.
Are you going to argue with any of that? Do you have a case against it? What’s the counter? Takeovers? We’ve had a couple: Anheuser-Busch, Wrigley. Good if you owned them.
Lower rates? Can the Fed help? We assume the Fed is done. The odds favor higher rates. Bank turnarounds? How, with short-rates going up? With housing prices going down?
Can oil go down? Only with a worldwide crash, and with a worldwide crash, why would we come back at 10,000?
Can the consumer get more liquid? How? Unemployment’s going higher. Wages won’t go up in that environment.
That’s the environment. It’s pretty bulletproof when it comes to its logic.
In fact, there’s really only one thing that could be wrong with it. EVERYONE AND HIS BROTHER BELIEVES IN IT. It is the most consensus of consensus views.
Sometimes the consensus is dead right: Housing’s been going down and everyone knows it’s going down, and it keeps going down.
I have said the same thing about Citigroup and Wachovia and Washington Mutual and Bank of America — cut the dividend already! — and GM — cut the dividend again already! — and Ford. That’s been right. That’s worked.
So you can’t just say the consensus is wrong.
The negativity coming into today’s session is as thick as I can recall nearing most short-term bottoms. The issue is there is not enough fear out there. Despite the consensus, which obviously creates a need for lower prices before it is worth buying, there isn’t a big spike in the VIX, there isn’t a gap down, or a crescendo of selling. There isn’t even any volume. So while the bearishness is real thick, the selling isn’t. (Bloomberg had an excellent piece on this yesterday, noting how much lower the VIX was than at other bottoms.)
I think we lack a climax because we haven’t had a climax, some session where people can say, “I don’t care how much lower GM goes, I know it is a buy.” Same with Citigroup.
That’s because unlike most other times in the stock market, the stocks of big companies that are cascading all need capital, and the companies themselves aren’t selling anything off except common.
Merrill Lynch should have sold Bloomberg. It is not a core asset. It should have sold its Blackrock stake. It can make it without it. But no … nothing.
Citigroup has a lot of core assets, but I now believe that the management of that place is so screwed up it’s not redeemable anymore. They just need a 20% Saudi investor. Bank of America will now have to start the process of being the nation’s largest mortgage lender in a nation that doesn’t have much buying to do. Maybe that will change next year, but by then I suspect the federal government or these state governments will have wiped out Countrywide, which surely would been out of business if BAC had stepped away. The mistakes here have been catastrophic. So what if Wachovia or Washington Mutual have great deposit bases? We know in the end that the FDIC will have to act to protect them and then we will find out what Sheila Bair is made of. I figure she’s like everyone else that has surfaced in finance with the feds (except Bob Steel) — an empty suit.
In the meantime, I cannot disagree with the statement at the top of this piece, except for where it comes to commodity companies that sell into China — they are the bull market. Anyone who thinks they have to go down too is not in keeping with the way the market works: there’s always something that works, it is just the volume of it may be so small that it doesn’t matter. That’s where we are right now.
All my indicators say that it is extremely dangerous to short here: oscillators, attitudes, polls. They haven’t worked either — or yet. I think the palpable gloom simply does one thing — it’ll be a stair-step down rather than a cascade, where you can make a little money when you are on the stair but then give it back on the next step, until we get to some level that better reflects a GM bankruptcy or a Citigroup collapse, one or the other, or both.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
As usual, Cramer finally gets it, after everyone else.
I’m intrigued – how a man who’s proven to be wrong more often than not, continues to be widely followed, hold his own TV show, and keep recommending stocks. He was pumping RIMM just a few days ago for Chrissakes!
The Fly RuleZ!
Zell, another example of the rich not seeing and feeling what the avg household is dealing with.
Oil up to $142ish? What the fuck is going on? No way it can go any higher.
Cramer’s comments would have been useful back in May
Has anyone noticed the carnage in defense stocks?
LLL GD RTN ATK NOC LMT SPR ERJ HRLY HRS HON ROK
fugly , all look headed lower
of course if we bomb bomb bomb-Iran, there would be a fierce short covering rally
Oil to $200, guaranteed.
Juice
LLL mentioned by Guy last night. “But, not just yet!”, he said.
what to do with SKF???
Are we in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the Doom of America? I can’t tell. I had to go take a piss.
BAC has been dropping in value over the past couple of months. There has been no sign of a dividend cut or keep. Some of us may be asking what’s going and who is benefiting from all this chaos. Well I’m here to help clarify some things.
If you read the contract between BAC and CFC you will see that the buyout offer is not free cash, but rather an amount constraint by a fixed ratio. CFC share holders will get .1257 of a BAC share for every CFC share. So what does this fixed ratio mean? It means if BAC shares decline in value then BAC is paying less for CFC. If CFC declines in value then BAC would be paying more.
It seems that both stocks have taken a dive since the buyout proposal. But BAC has taken a deeper dive. This is a positive signal. It means that BAC will be paying a lot less for CFC due to the ratio constraint. Here’s the math below:
At the point of offer, BAC shares were around $42 when it made a the tender offer of valued at around $6 per share for CFC. The key term here is “valued at.” It means BAC is not constantly offering around that $6 per share for CFC. The value is dictated by the .14 ratio. which is around 6/42. Now given that BAC’s shares declined to $24, in order to have the same buyout ratio value, CFC needs to be around $3.36. But as we see CFC is $4.45. This means that we are effectively paying $3.36 for a $4.45 stock, hence giving a saving of nearly 25%.
You ask why BAC shares has been declining in value? I have no qualm saying that management smartly and purposely maneuvered this outcome to get a cheaper deal thus giving more future value to BAC stock holders. My prediction is that once the deal has gone through, all the BAC shorting will be done and we will be back in the $30s. We may slowly climb toward the $40 benchmark as the economy heal up or when management finally decide to announce no dividend cut because the CFC deal is done.
Notice how bank downgrades hardly touch BAC. Also how Golman urges investors to short C instead of BAC. Smart players know BAC’s downturn is a temporary manipulative play. Smart investors know to buy in at every substantial drop and wait for the storm to subside.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=1903&tid=283693&mid=283693&tof=1&frt=2
MInute Maid.. the defense appropriations bill passed the House yesterday. That list of your s wil turn around in my humble opinion.
Crude.. agree.. short uso at 113.035 since 3 pm yesterday
Boomer.. Credit Suisse has committed to our alt energy play to the tune of 24% ownership. Our shares are up 10% now and the cloud has been removed. Our path upwards is clear.
TSO really going to zero? Oil will never stop going up really? Demand will never slow? What if there are no businesses, will demand still be high? FTK is only worth 20 bucks when oil is at 150? Doesn’t sound like a good investment vehicle.
calvino – plz elaborate, what are you talking about
Damn – Cramer is going short? Time to go long? -LOL 😉
Hella’ disconcerting when Cramer starts sounding like he knows what he’s talking about.
Maybe his wife wrote that one…
cptc, i thought you were in.
Cramer came on Erin Burnett’s show at 2:30 on the day the FED announced its decision and he was bullish.
The market dropped 360 points the next day.
Fuck Cramer.