iBankCoin
CAPS LOCK IS CRUISE CONTROL FOR AWESOME
Joined May 7, 2012
72 Blog Posts

Dotcom 2.0: Cryptocurrencies in a bubble

Ethereum, DASH and Monero are the #2, #3 and #4 Cryptocurrencies by market cap behind Bitcoin. They are also in a huge bubble that’s been created the past few weeks. Here are some numbers:

Ethereum: up 178% in 30 days
DASH: up 350% in 30 days
Monero: up 60% in 30 days

 

 

When Bitcoin is up the “alt coins” trend down or sideways. When Bitcoin is down, the alt coins trend up. Recent news about the SEC denying the Bitcion ETF, continued contentious debate over a scaling solution for Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Unlimited bug and now Vinny Lingham calling for lower Bitcoin prices have set the alt coin market on fire. Twitter is full of Crypto traders FUDing and FOMOing from coin to coin. If you think trading stocks in they dotcom heyday was crazy try the 24/7 crypto market. Ethereum was up 30% in a 12 hour stretch this week!

This won’t end well for anyone except maybe Bitcoin longs. Bitcoin is antifragile. It’s been through this before. Bitcoin has an ecosystem and most importantly it is used as a store of value and money. The same cannot be said for Ethereum, DASH or Monero.

Very few companies survived massive runs in their market cap during the dotcom bubble. I expect the same of Cryptocurrency. When this alt coin bubble pops, and it will, those bubble profits will make their way back to Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin is back

Bitcoin shrugged off the SEC’s decision to deny the Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin is now back to prices seen…earlier this month. The absolute horror.

Bitcoin has been declared dead more times than Freddy, Jason and the T800 combined. 125 times in fact.

Here is why the SEC really rejected Bitcoin. A few select quotes:

The SEC doesn’t protect retail investors from anything, least of all bitcoin. It protects big megabanks from prosecution and competition. How can we be sure? Because pump and dump scams are everywhere. A nothing company with zero employees can merge into a shell by technical SEC rules and then start blasting ads to first time investors. This is all perfectly fine. Banks don’t buy into these scams. Retail dumb money does. No protection there.

But Credit Suisse for example can go on and issue double leveraged short term VIX futures shares like the TVIX that are more volatile and explosive than a bucket of antimatter. A bitcoin ETF though would be “too dangerous” for consumers, but the TVIX, the bane of all aggressive novice shorters who dream of making it rich quick, that’s perfectly wonderful, because it’s issued by Credit Suisse.

A bitcoin ETF is way too dangerous, but triple leveraged bear and bull ETFs issued by investment management behemoths with literally trillions of dollars under management, are fine and ubiquitous. Any teenager old enough to open a brokerage account can click a button and buy any of them and the fund decay all goes to the Big Boys. They’re fine because they are backed by Big Money, the same guys who can so easily influence who gets nominated to financial regulatory agencies.

So, good riddance to the SEC.

The biggest threat to Bitcoin is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is software that has a consensus mechanism built in to handle upgrades. To keep it simple, consensus can be reached in a couple of ways and requires majority of miners, users or exchanges to agree on what software version to run. Today a version called Bitcoin Unlimited was attacked via a bug shutting down a majority of miners running the Bitcoin Unlimited version of software.

Why did this happen? Because the selfish fucks at Bitcoin Unlimited want Bitcoin to be Visa over fucking night. They are willing to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and they shill daily for a hard fork of Bitcoin. They released untested code and got hammered for it. That this happened today is a great thing. Bitcoin Unlimited loses credibility and the case for SegWit, or at least a controlled and well tested fork, is reinforced. Suck it Bitcoin Unlimited.

Gramatik has a song out about Satoshi Nakomoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin. “We buying whips with cryptocurrency.”

BULLISH.

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Bitcoin ETF DENIED by SEC

UPDATE: ETF denied. Bitcoin dead cat bounced off $1,000. I think we’ll have a final capitulation spike down and then resume upward trajectory for rest of 2017. 4 years in the making and the entire ETF drama will be forgotten by next week.

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The SEC decision regarding the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is due March 11 (Saturday). Expect an announcement around 430PM EST today.

In anticipation, Bitcoin had a $170 5 min candle today. $170 in FIVE MINUTES. Even for Bitcoin that is ridiculous. $1200 > $1360 > $1190. Bitcoin is a rodeo bull, just try to hang on.

 

I expect either $2,000 or $1,000 Bitcoin within 7 days. I am leaning that the ETF is denied and we test $1,000. I’m a buyer post announcement either way. If denied, we’ll have a buying opportunity and the entire ETF will just be a blip on the chart by Q2 2017.

However, if the ETF is approved then we’re in uncharted territory. Buy the rocket and hold on.

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$COIN ETF decision approaches

March 11 marks the day the SEC will hand down it’s decision on the Winklevoss backed Bitcoin ETF $COIN.

Bitcoin has rallied on the rumor of approval and fresh capital hitting Bitcoin via an ETF. As a result, Bitcoin touched on all time highs. There are two numbers to crack for Bitcoin to be in uncharted territory: the Mt Gox Exchange high of $1265 and parity with gold.

If the ETF passes some are predicting Bitcoin will fast track $5,000+. Bitcoin’s “market cap” is ~18B, or just slightly larger than TWTR. A Bitcoin ETF would cause a strong rally. Do I recommend COIN? No, I recommend you hold your own Bitcoins over an ETF the same as I recommend holding your gold over GLD.

If the ETF fails Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Bitcoin may see a 20% correction. Buy Bitcoin there.

I don’t believe the ETF will pass and I think that’s the right decision. Bitcoin is still evolving. Labeling Bitcoin as a commodity via ETF would be like labeling AOL in early 90’s as “the Internet”. The Internet evolved bigly from the early days of AOL. Bitcoin is in that kind of early phase.

My advice? Stop masturbating for 20 minutes and invest a few minutes to improve your mind and impact your piker bank account long term. Buy a hardware wallet. Buy some bitcoins. You’ll be an early adopter and find out how easy it is to use digital currency. You can use purse.io to name your own discount on Amazon by paying in Bitcoin. The key is to start now.

Oh, we also have this thing called a debt ceiling coming March 15th. That could really set off some fireworks with Bitcoin price as Trump and Congress twitterjerk themselves into a budget war.

(HOUSEKEEPING) I’ve been bashing GBTC for over a year. In a comment section somewhere I stated GBTC was an OK buy if you only had retirement accounts and wanted Bitcoin exposure. I am revoking that comment and reinstating that GBTC is complete garbage.

 

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Bitcoin longs Ramsay Bolton’ed

The news about the PBOC investigating exchanges is verified true and is being blown into a FUD tornado, or FUDNADO, if you will. In a world full of FUD it’s no surprise.

Filtering the noise…..the Exchanges are not Bitcoin any more than the S&P500 is Google. Nothing has changed about Bitcoin.

Exchange regulation is a sign of Bitcoin’s increasing influence and legitimacy.

I won’t be surprised if PBOC closes an Exchange. It’s long term irrelevant. Barring that this may be last time we see 700’s. Bitcoin has survived Mt Gox, Cryptsy and Bitfinex.

Either way we are definitely separating the longs from the wannabes here.

And anything is possible. Bitcoin is risky. Don’t fuck around with it if you can’t handle it AND if you don’t have at least a few coins you may be missing the opportunity of the century.

As you were, fuckheads.

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BITCOIN IS DEAD

Tips hat to OA for his well timed Bitcoin sell. Excellent as usual.

Now, for the rest of the Internet declaring Bitcoin is dead please review these other 120 obituaries written about Bitcoin going back to 2010.

You see, Bitcoin is a Sewer Rat. Bitcoin has been declared dead and crawled out of the grave many times to continue to rise in value and credibility.

No entity or government controls Bitcoin. No Fed, no PBOC, no EU. Just pure market dynamics. Bitcoin is not dead, it’s just getting started. And like many disruptor in early stages, Bitcoin is volatile as fuck. Caveat Emptor. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of Bitcoin. To the early adopters go the greatest rewards.

And for the newcomers, here are some FACTS:

  • Bitcoin is the best performing currency 6 of last 7 years.
  • Bitcoin is at ~16B USD market cap. Slightly larger than Twitter. 10x that is peanuts in financial world.
  • There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. That’s .003 per human on the planet.
  • BTC is easily divisible to .00000001
  • A $1 trillion market cap in Bitcoin is $62,500 PER BITCOIN
  • Capital flight from China has been closely linked to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin could retrace to ~$720, which takes us all the way back to … late November. If that’s the case I’ll be buying by the boatload. See you at $10k.

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New Year, New Market Cap High in Bitcoin

On December 7th with Bitcoin at ~$770 I posted you had your last chance to buy before a run to $1,000.

Today Bitcoin hit $1,000. That’s ~25% return in less than 30 days.

What now? Well, here’s a possible scenario:

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-1-33-40-pm

I don’t like the vertical upward trend. It’s too volatile, however the long term trend is the cup and handle. Target: $1,400 for a buy and hold. It’s going to be very choppy so if you act have a strong hand and you’ll be rewarded nicely.

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This is your Final Warning

Bitcoin is ready to explode. This is your last chance to get on board before we visit $1,000 and beyond.

This vid starts with an ex FB exec redpilling the audience with Bitcoin. Then we have Richard Branson and a few other folks talk about Bitcoin.

Chartporn:

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-4-03-24-pm

That is BTCUSD vs FANG. BTCUSD is cucking FANG. In fact, BTCUSD is cucking everything. And Bitcoin is just getting started.

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-5-02-51-pm

U.S. markets are at the effect of central bankers desperately easing to keep the public placated and it’s worked with market ATH but it hasn’t solved anything. When all else has failed CB have resorted to BTFD. Everything from the central bankers is fake news, designed to keep those in power atop the heap. Employment, inflation, GDP…all fake to promote a message with an agenda that the sheeple are OK. In reality, trillions are given to banks making every one of your dollars worth less.

Tbe banks are backstopped by the government. Imagine the horrible decisions you’d make if you knew there were NO consequences. You won’t go to jail, in fact, you’ll likely be richer! Combine that environment with ample cocaine use and you have our current situation.

The graft perpetrated on the public by banks and governments is coming to an end. Those market ATH will not be sustainable and it’s a long way down. Best case scenario, there is a heavy rotation into infrastructure under #MAGA. However, MAGA will only make a new bubble and it’s net output depends on taxes. MAGA is not salvation, only another mirage.

How long have we been collectively waiting for the shoe to drop in the market? Fuck the market. At a minimum, put some of your funds into Bitcoin. Make Bitcoin your smallest allocation. Or fucking kick yourself next year for not buying cheap insurance when Bitcoin moons and the market implodes.

Still think Bitcoin is a joke? Tell that to the list of bitcoin wallets on this page, some of which hold over $95,000,000. If Bitcoin is good enough for them it’s good enough for your piker balance.

Bitcoin ATH is a measly ~$12B market cap. $12B is PEANUTS in the financial world. The upside is ridiculously huge. Do you realize our monetary system stopped evolving in the tech equivalent of the pony express. Try to send a wire recently? It takes days and costs $50! It’s ridiculous. Bitcoin is about as easy as sending an email and just as fast. Western Union $WU has a market cap equal to Bitcoin. Bitcoin can easily grow 10x from where it stands today.

Here’s the true value though. Bitcoin is an immutable ledger immune to government influence. A transaction on the blockchain costs pennies, can move millions and no third party is necessary. Think about the impact of that. No 3rd party is necessary. Banks and governments can’t stop Bitcoin. Banks are powerless to insert their tentacles and siphon from the public. Money for the people, by the people.

Bitcoin and blockchain are the biggest technical and financial developments in our lifetimes. It’s a revolution in how we transact value globally. Are you going to pass up profiting from it?

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Money has nowhere to hide

India demonetization, Italy’s referendum as a precursor to leaving the Euro, Venezuela hyper-inflation, negative interest rates, the Euro and USD almost at parity.

What’s it all mean?

its-not-about-money-joker-box-office

Last month’s prime example: India is putting their cow worshipping population under the boot and forcing them to open bank accounts so the Government can more efficiently rob their own people.

And what’s the message? The people are there to serve the government, not the other way around. It’s like this clip in Goodfellas:

Negative interest rates encourage people to hoard their savings outside the system in cash. How to counter that? Demonetize large bills to flush that currency back through the system. This is already happening all over the world.

Money has nowhere to hide.

Consider, money is how you store the product of your life’s labor. It represents the value you’ve produced. Do you feel comfortable having that wealth and stored labor locked up in a USD bank account that is a few keystrokes away from being raided by the Fed?

In a bank your money is an entry in a database. In reality, it’s not your money at that point. You don’t own it and you can’t touch it. Banks are trading digits on a ledger that can be manipulated at will until the Government decides to devalue or confiscate what you believe is your money. Don’t think it can happen? It’s happened before. It’s happening almost weekly in China with Yuan devaluation.

How does one track the trend of money having nowhere to hide?

Here’s how Bitcoin did vs Gold in November:

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-10-58-44-am

And Bitcoin vs the Dollar:

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-11-15-01-am

But you argue, “the dollar is so strong vs everything else!” Well, vs the Mexican Peso, yes. The Chinese funny money Yuan, sure. The Euro, of course. That’s like an adult beating up a child. Is it really something to be proud of?

USD has also beaten Gold the past month, but over the last 100 years Gold has murdered the USD. Gold ETFs have created a paper gold market that has been setting the price of Gold. When those ETFs collapse, the real price of Gold will be determined. Hint: Gold will be much higher.

So what now? Where can you store your wealth that is out of the reach of any Government? The answer is Bitcoin (or Gold and Silver in your physical possession). No government controls Bitcoin. It’s decentralized. Moving $100,000 costs the same as moving $10 and NO one can stop you from doing it. Gold is great but Bitcoin is much more convenient and is being labeled as “The Internet of Money”.

What does Internet of Money mean? If you remember the Internet when webpages were almost all text and dial up speeds were 14.4 on a modem on a phone line, that’s where Bitcoin is today. It’s evolving. Buying Bitcoin now is like buying MSFT in 1989.

So what does all that mean for investing? Fuck if I know. You aren’t paying me for advice so you fucking put it together you lazy fuck.

I can say this chart shows a cup and handle and an inverse head and shoulders for Bitcoin. Kind of like those pictures where it’s either an old lady or a young woman, depending on how you look at it.

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-11-21-55-am

Bitcoin is the New Style.

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War on Cash

On November 8th Indian Prime Minister Modi did something unusual:

India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation.

The hidden intention is to also increase tax revenue which is way below average for a developed country because most transactions in India are in cash. In fact, buying a house in India often involves a suitcase of cash exchanging hands. Driving the majority of this suitcase cash through a bank forces criminals and savers alike to declare their savings with the government, which is taxed heavily above a comically low threshold. As a result of that tax you can sell your old bills in the streets at a 20-30% discount to avoid the nice government folks.

screen-shot-2016-11-16-at-6-12-49-pm

Gold, which is a traditional store of value and has a high cultural value in India, is selling at almost a 100% markup. (warning: zerohedge quote incoming)

97% of the Indian economy is cash-based. With 88% of all outstanding currency no longer usable, the economy is coming to a standstill. The daily-wage laborer, who leads a hand-to-mouth existence in a country with GDP per capita of a mere $1,600, no longer has work, as his employer has no cash to pay his wages.

People are now converting whatever they can into gold, silver, and mostly for the first time into the US dollar and other foreign currencies as well, all of which are trading at huge premiums. Money is also moving out of the country. Gold has shot up to as much as $2,800 per ounce, if you can find it.

Consider India a ground war on cash. Before you discount this as a problem only for India other Countries are already winning a cyber war on Cash. There’s Sweden, which unlike India, is 97% cashless thanks to Swish.

“I don’t use cash any more, for anything,” said Louise Henriksson, 26, a teaching assistant. “You just don’t need it. Shops don’t want it; lots of banks don’t even have it. Even for a candy bar or a paper, you use a card or phone.”

Swedish buses have not taken cash for years, it is impossible to buy a ticket on the Stockholm metro with cash, retailers are legally entitled to refuse coins and notes, and street vendors – and even churches – increasingly prefer card or phone payments.

According to central bank the Riksbank, cash transactions made up barely 2% of the value of all payments made in Sweden last year.

The same week Modi outlawed India currency notes Trump won the US election for POTUS. This happens to coincide with Blockchain announcing a record surge in new Bitcoin wallets.

“We’re setting a new record pretty much every day since the election in terms of activity on the platform.

“People are basically hedging against economic instability. It’s a worrying time to be holding a lot of British pounds or if you’re American — people flee to safe haven assets. Bitcoin is one of those.”

If we give 100% control over our stored labor (cash) to the banks government they will do what’s best for them with your cash and you will have zero recourse. Personally, if I had your cash I could burn mine!

With a Bitcoin wallet you become your own bank which allows frictionless, low cost transactions.

With 1 billion people in India now subject to new levels of taxation will they turn to Bitcoin? That remains to be seen. The richest man in India is setting up free 4G for all of India, that certainly helps!

The great fiat experiment is in various stages across the world. With a record number of new Bitcoin wallets being established and a country of 1 Billion facing controls on their cash will we see a surge in demand for Bitcoin? I think so.

Bitcoin was up from $696 to $740 in past 48 hours when this was posted.

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