There will be no rest this weekend for Bitcoiners.
Bitcoin Core (AKA BTC) will have a scheduled “difficulty adjustment” sometime on Saturday. A “DA” occurs every 2016 blocks. During this time the algorithm for mining difficulty adjusts according to current conditions to maintain a consistent rate of new blocks/bitcoins into the system.
There are rumors that the mining power for Bitcoin will shift shortly after this adjustment to Bitcoin Cash (AKA BCH). This would cause big problems for Bitcoin as Bitcoin would become slow and (more) expensive while also being the furthest distance possible from the next difficulty adjustment to make up for lost mining power. This sudden shift in mining power could lead to a death spiral for Bitcoin Core.
This might be the beginning of the “flippening” where Bitcoin Cash replaces Bitcoin as the dominant crypto currency.
One way for BTC to counter this is if BTC price continues higher so it is more profitable to mine than BCH. And look, BTC is at all time highs.
If you haven’t hedged your BTC position with BCH you have a few days left. I don’t know if this will happen as outlined. It’s been publicly discussed in many communities so it should not be a surprise. I expect that Bitcoin Core has a contingency plan.
None of the above may take place, but if it does you’ve been warned.
I personally do not think it would be healthy for crypto in general to have a fast and violent flippening. It would be very disruptive. People would lose a lot of money (BCH holders would get rich very quickly tho) and it would set the ecosystem back. It would be better for Bitcoin Cash to eat Bitcoin’s lunch over the next several months. Then there could be an orderly transfer of wealth with the earliest adopters making the greatest profits.
Bitcoin Core is not defenseless. Things will get crazy. This is more than a battle for today’s digital tokens. It’s a battle for who influences the future of money.
Better to have your Bitcoin affairs in order prior to Saturday.
You will see a lot of articles on Bitcoin this week. This is what you really need to know.
Bitcoin Core forked from Bitcoin Cash. That’s right. You will hear that said the other way around in 99% of articles, tweets etc but Bitcoin Core altered the way digital signatures are handled to:
Keep an artificial block size limit in place
Provide capability to add a paid service called Lightning Network on top of Bitcoin to solve the problem created in #1
This basic change in how Bitcoin operates means Bitcoin Core is a fork of the original code and that Bitcoin Cash retains the characteristics that made it a 100B market cap with eyes on further exponential growth.
The facts around Core vs Cash are hotly disputed but people are slowly waking up to the truth.
Here’s more about why this distinction between coins matters and who will win (and where to put your funds).
Bitcoin Core promises to solve the scaling problem using SegWit to enable the “Lightning Network”. The Lightning Network is a second layer solution designed to handle transactions (for a fee of course!) and then using Bitcoin only as a settlement layer. Do you see the problem yet? It negates the primary features of Bitcoin. Bitcoin becomes captured by Blockstream, the proponents of SegWit and the Lightning Network. Blockstream will make billions from this scenario. Oh, did I mention several of the Bitcoin Core developers are also Blockstream employees? Blockstream intends to be the vampire squid of Crypto.
Think of money. Then think of Visa. Visa would love to eliminate money! The Lightning Network is like Visa. If Lightning Network were enabled Blockstream would be grifting from every transaction on the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin Cash promises to solve the scaling problem by increasing the block size. This allows scale using Bitcoin Cash quickly and cheaply without a thrid party involved. This keeps the promise of what made Bitcoin appeal to many early adopters as well as protecting Bitcoin’s resistance to control, censorship and corruption.
So, what’s been going on? A war. I’ve been posting about Bitcoin Cash for a few months. It had a ridiculous spike and retrace even for the wild west of Crypto. But in a few months that will be a blip on the chart. Crypto veterans have seen the craziest things and we’re practically immune. Crypto is changing the world and rewriting the rules of money. It’s going to be fucking messy for a while.
Predictions are a fool’s game but I’m a fool. I expect that BCH resumes it’s climb in next 48 hours and BTC will not reach $7,000 again. In a few months BCH will be king and BTC will be #rekt.
It’s over. Bend the knee to Bitcoin. Bezos and Musk will be court jesters in the age of Bitcoin.
Neckbeards in Lambos are our future. Men who can’t wash their nether regions unassisted are the new financial lords of the universe. They mined Bitcoin on their mom’s AMD laptop in 2012 and now they can buy 50% of the companies on the S&P.
Fly’s hallowed halls are in decay. Millenial Bitcoin Operators are taking over. Don’t fear, we will be sure to reserve space for a plaque to honor the past greatness of Stock traders. RIP.
But things are unsettled in Crypto. Bitcoin nears $6,700 but it’s a speeding train headed to a valley with no bridge.
Alas, the neckbeards are taking arms against each other. They’ve taken breaks from LARPing to point their sharp barbs and most wicked memes in each other’s general direction and shots have been fired.
We have Battle of the Bitcoins.
Bitcoin Core. Headed by lead dev and Blockstream CEO Adam Back
Bitcoin Cash. The version of Bitcoin that honors the original design and direction of Bitcoin
Bitcoin 2x. To be forked from Bitcoin Core in ~2 weeks
If it didn’t immediately jump out at you…..the fucking CEO of Blockstream is the lead dev of Bitcoin Core. LOL that’s like Blankfein being the Fed Reserve Chair. Conflict of interest much? And then Bitcoin Core wonders why people are pissed off. Blockstream exists to siphon value from Bitcoin into their own coffers. This battle is about taking control of Bitcoin back from Blockstream.
Much like Highlander, there can be only ONE Bitcoin. These three versions will battle for supremacy and there will be epic levels of fuckery in two weeks. Expect 50% intraday price swings. All you blue balled Bitcoin bears will see fantastical price crashes. But Bitcoin may hit $10k by mid November before the fireworks begin!
So, here’s your Bitcoin survival plan:
Put coins on an exchange that will grant holders 2x coins soon after fork.
Set your sell / buy orders as you see fit ahead of the fork.
Buckle the fuck up.
Personally I’ve gone full retard. I am all in on Bitcoin Cash. I will be sitting on the sidelines with a big bag of popcorn in mid November. I am playing the long game. I will either get #REKT in true Crypto legend fashion or I will 10x my returns for getting in early and low. I am what I call “irresponsibly allocated”.
Many of you may have real world responsibilities that prevent you from YOLO’ing your net worth on a monthly basis like yours truly. However, if you do own some Bitcoin you can hedge with Bitcoin Cash. I don’t care if you agree with my investing thesis at 14:1 ratio you can hedge your Bitcoin portfolio with Bitcoin Cash and it fucking makes sense. It’s cheap insurance.
The next few weeks will determine if I get my dick guillotined or am able to buy a small private island.
Let’s be clear about something… There will be winners and losers in Crypto. When the Internet was new people couldn’t envision how the web would impact their lives. Now, most people can’t take a crap without taking their smartphone with them.
I made great money trading dot com stocks. Most of those companies do not exist anymore but the survivors dominate. History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Most of the current coins will die but the survivors will be here for 100+ years. So much money will move into the surviving coins it will be the greatest wealth transfer in history. Stay frosty, don’t fall in love, and keep your eyes on the prize.
For those who are swimming against the tide of Crypto you are fighting progress. Crypto isn’t going anywhere. This is not a drill. This *is* a game changing event. Events of this magnitude come around every 30-40 years. Your choice when you turn the corner and switch from skeptic to interested to daily user. At the least, keep your options open. Should you go all in YOLO style? Definitely not. Should you put some play money into a coin to learn how it works? YES.
And remember, Cryptocurrency is <9 years old. It’s already changing the world. It’s going to be messy for a while. REALLY MESSY. This is easy to forget in our fast forward life. When in doubt, zoom out.
So call the crash in Bitcoin. It’s expected. It takes brass balls (and some good trading) to be in this market. But you SHOULD be in this market.
Current events: Bitcoin Gold forked from Bitcoin yesterday. In a month there is another planned fork for Bitcoin 2x. On August 1st Bitcoin forked to Bitcoin Cash.
That equals FOUR Bitcoins. What a mess. I warned about this months ago. The only thing that can kill Bitcoin is Bitcoin. My view on this is that only one Bitcoin will survive. It will be the coin that most closely follows the original design of Bitcoin. It’s going to get really weird in Q4. Bitcoin needs an enema.
I’m not here to convince anyone or offer trading advice. Well, except this call:
Chinese media is reporting executives of crypto exchanges have been ordered to not leave the country with a very rough translation stating:
“A number of informed sources say the executives of special currency trading platforms are not allowed to leave Beijing to cooperate with the investigation. In accordance with regulatory requirements, trading platform shareholders, the actual controller, executives and financial executives need to fully cooperate with the relevant work in the clean-up period in Beijing.”
As such, miners are seemingly preparing for the worst, with some thinking of relocating to neighboring countries or to very cold areas, such as Iceland.
China has been ramping up pressure on Crypto. So far they have banned ICO’s, Exchanges and now possibly they may ban the Bitcoin mining industry which creates 7.2 million dollars in new Bitcoins every day 365 days a year.
The Sophon unit will include Bitmain’s first piece of bespoke silicon for a revolutionary AI technology. If things go to plan, thousands of Bitmain Sophon units soon could be training neural networks in vast data centers around the world.
To grasp how a Beijing startup is poised to challenge the likes of Google, Nvidia, and AMD in the deep learning arms race, it’s essential to understand Bitmain’s pivotal role in the $70 billion bitcoin economy.
The company is a marvel of vertical integration. Bitmain designs the silicon that goes into its bitcoin mining rigs, assembles the machines, then sells them to customers around the world. It also operates the machines for its own account, runs vast bitcoin mines
Bitmain is run by a 31 year old named Jihan Wu. I assure you the Chinese government have paid him a visit.
China shutting down the miners would have a big impact on Bitcoin. Chinese miners going offline would reduce hash rate which would increase bitcoin transaction times and fees.
It would be a bad time to own a lot of crypto that does not have an emergency difficulty adjustment built in.
Bitcoin Cash, which has an EDA feature, is breaking out.
China has Kim Jon Un’ed the Crypto world and fired a first strike. The rumor is the PBOC will issue its own digital token, possibly for trading with other BRICS, as a way to sidestop the USD. Maybe they will back this asset with gold? A Chinese digital currency sounds worse for the dollar than for Bitcoin. Get out your WWJD (what will Janet do) bracelets and start praying to your bearded Bernanke Buddha. The China man is sick of your American Bullshit.
In the meantime, don’t be surprised to see stories about Kim Jong Un’s rockets being powered by Bitcoin. We are approaching McCarthyism level hysteria. Crypto currencies are going to be the devil incarnate for the foreseeable future.
China has banned Google, Facebook and many other companies, services and technologies. Guess what, people in China still use those services. China issuing its own token solves nothing regarding their ghost cities, inefficient markets and socialist (communist?) government. China would be better off joining the Bitcoin party but China gonna China.
What does this all mean? There is blood and panic in the streets. Should you be selling? NO! Because you sold above $4k if you have a brain in your head. Right?
Jamie Dimon, Grand Wizard of JP Morgan, Forger of Chains, Master of Trading Desks, Ruler of the Golden Men, Father of Bailouts and the first of his name has come out swinging on Bitcoin. Again.
This is the same position Dimon has had on Bitcoin for years. In 2015 he said “you’re wasting your time with Bitcoin”. Bitcoin was trading at ~$320 the week this video was uploaded to YouTube in November 2015. If his comments about the government never letting go of control of currency doesn’t cause a concern for you then you *might* be a JP Morgan employee.
The price correction the past few days was overdue. I’ve been tweeting about it for weeks. I expect $3200 Bitcoin before the correction completes. Bitcoin was already sliding. Dimon’s comments shook weak hands who were going to capitulate soon anyway.
Here’s what there is to remember. If you have possession of your private keys there is no counterparty risk. Governments can shut down exchanges or attack fiat onramps but they can’t stop bitcoin. Exchanges DO NOT equal Bitcoin. Shut one exchange down and there are dozens of others to use.
So why would Dimon say this now? The word on the street is Dimon is privy to pending US government action on one or more exchanges. So he’s wrong on bitcoin but he’s not dumb. He’s making statements now because he knows the next move coming.
There is risk if you are holding your crypto on an exchange. Then you are vulnerable. If you hold your private keys then you have s swiss bank in your pocket, extra Obama.
Decentralized exchanges will be big in 2018. Today’s exchanges are a choke point and a tracking mechanism for big brother. With decentralized exchanges truly there will be no way to shut down crypto.
But what if governments outlaw crypto currency? Well, we’ll probably see them try. China has taken measures to put controls in place. Too late, the cat is out of the bag. I think a more likely scenario is we’ll see state level actions in the crypto space. Rumors are N Korea is mining Bitcoin. China may be on verge of nationalizing their largest Bitcoin mining operations.
It’s an interesting time for Crypto. Practice safe crypto and keep your keys safe offline and ride it out.
Let’s start with: China bans ICOs. Good! ICOs are complete crap. ICOs are designed to separate fools and their money. ICOs were raising millions of dollars in hours based on very short whitepapers. There is a website where you could create your own fake whitepaper to go with your make believe Crypto project and get rich overnight. Market digested and discarded China banning ICOs within 24 hours.
Next: Bitcoin hit $5,000 for first time. Then it retraced to ~$4,000. Then back to $4,700. Now trading at $4,300. Nothing like 15-20% swings in your portfolio every 12-24 hours to keep you alert and engaged in the market!
Yours truly warned about the correction when BTC was at $4,800. Unlike most of the crypto perma bulls I believe we have another correction coming. Sideways action is healthy for the charts now.
There were rumors China was “banning Bitcoin”. This has happened before. This recycled news even has it’s own South Park meme. (BTW, Crypto has the dankest memes)
China banning Bitcoin news was discredited, then confirmed, then discredited. I honestly don’t know what’s true at this point and don’t really care. This could be fake news?
China has banned Google and Justin Bieber. Doesn’t seem to affect them too much. I think Bitcoin will be fine.
Now we have renewed rumors about www.poloniex.com being close to collapsing or being seized by the government. If you have any funds on Poloniex I recommend you get your crypto/fiat out of Poloniex ASAP.
My current allocation is 80% Bitcoin Cash and 20% Monero. I believe Bitcoin Cash has more upside than Bitcoin and that privacy will be the theme of Crypto in 2018.