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Bitcoin vs The World

Bitcoin is up 3% on a day the Sterling and other currencies scramble to avoid the gravitational pull of the blackhole of their central bank policies and deals made with the devil (extra EU). The Dollar is the least worst place to be in fiat so it rises in comparison. How much longer will that last?

Tomorrow the SEC either approves or denies the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF. As pointed out in this article a Bitcoin ETF could be a major boost to Bitcoin price.

Having meandered between $300 and $400 for the previous 15 years, gold prices started to take off in 2004. Within two years of the launch of GLD, gold had hit $600. Within four years, it was over $900.


So a Bitcoin ETF should mimic the price-doubling impact of GLD and SLV.

In fact, the first Bitcoin ETF might pack even more of a punch than its precious metals counterparts.

That’s because a lot of potential Bitcoin investors have been sitting on the sidelines.

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$TWLO Gartley?

The Gartley Pattern: 70% of the time it works every time.

Buy at ~60 with tight stop maybe at 58. Sell at 64 to complete C. Buy at ~$58 with stops at $53.5 and hold for next leg up.

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Stocks – Hot Stove edition

There are certain stocks from which we learn hard lessons. If you trade then you have at least one rags to riches to rags story. Or a tragic margin call that takes a winning portfolio and kicks it down an open manhole.

But as they say, time heals all wounds. And you find yourself lured back to a certain hypnotic ticker, because this time it’s different. Except it’s not. Some stocks are a hot stove. Do NOT touch them.

$FEYE and $TWTR have caused a certain havoc on the IBC community. They are a pox upon the land. I declare them persona non grata. Fuck those stocks.

Ether them like Nas did Jay Z.

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Introduction to Bitcoin

For those of you interested in a primer on Bitcoin here are two great resources. I’ll answer any questions the best I can.

First, here is a speech (video and text transcription) by Andreas Antonopolous on Bitcoin. He wrote Mastering Bitcoin and The Internet of Money.

Andreas hits on several comparisons for Bitcoin including: the earliest writings were spreadsheets (a primitive blockchain), the next generation won’t understand 3-5 days to clear a banking transaction, the network effect, Bitcoin security (be your own bank) and also that money gets created in every social circle. Even Kindergartners. And yes, some of them eventually figure out how to take the other kid’s money.

Second is a link on Zerohedge from Raoul Pal. There are some incredible claims made in that article including Bitcoin at $1,000,000 per coin. It’s still a good read.

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Bill Gross on Bitcoin, Blockchain

Bloomberg reports Bill Gross has the following to say about Bitcoin:

New financial technologies such as bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors as a protection against central bank low- and negative-interest-rate policies that threaten capitalism, according to billionaire bond manager Bill Gross.

“Bitcoin and privately agreed upon blockchain technologies amongst a small set of global banks are just a few examples of attempts to stabilize the value of their current assets in future purchasing power terms,” he wrote. “Gold would be another example — historic relic that it is. In any case, the current system is beginning to be challenged.”

Billionaire bond managers are usually pretty smart guys. Most of them stick to what makes them money, traditional financial services, until they see something as inevitable in which case they get ahead of the adoption curve for profit and protection.

Let’s say there is a currency collapse. What’s going to be tradeable? Gold coins or digital tokens that are easily divisible  to .00000001 (one hundred of a millionth) and immune to counterfeit like Bitcoin? Bill is saying he sees the current system being challenged and Bitcoin is a way to hedge, if not outright profit. Bitcoin is an “example of attempts to stabilize the value of their current assets in future purchasing power terms”. In other words, your money is going to shit, says a fucking billionaire.

By the way, Gold got hammered today. Bitcoin was unchanged.

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Bitcoin ETF deadline and Auctions

The SEC deadline to approve the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is October 12. This has been in process for almost three years.

Why a Bitcoin ETF? This would open Bitcoin to Institutional investors and Joe Stocktrader. Tell your Uncle about Bitcoin at Thanksgiving and he could buy it Monday in his 401k.

“If a Bitcoin ETF brings additional capital to bitcoin, it would likely push the price higher and drive an increase in hashing power and funding for development – both of which would serve to further improve network security which, in turn, further enables all the use cases that make bitcoin great.”

Why not $GBTC? $GBTC is a scam. Every share represents .9 of a bitcoin which at $90/share means it’s almost 50% overpriced.

While waiting on the SEC the Winklevoss twins have been busy launching their daily auction of Bitcoins via Gemini in mid September.

Gemini tweets updates on the auction that occurs at 4PM daily.


Gemini has been averaging ~$1M/day in their auctions. Not too bad for a couple of Facebook rejects.

Note on ETF: It is much better to own your Bitcoin than to own an ETF based on Bitcoin, even if the ETF accurately represents Bitcoin’s price. Think of it like owning Gold vs a Gold ETF. If the ETF custodian has problems what do you really have? Nothing. However, if owning Bitcoin in your 401k is only accessible via an ETF then I would consider it.

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Everyone remain calm

When the Titanic hit the iceberg the Captain told everyone to remain calm while the wealthiest passengers were loaded onto lifeboats.

If (when) DB fails what happens next?

Bail out? Nationalization? Bankruptcy?

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Apple punches Fitbit in the kidneys

$FIT is off almost 10% on news that Aetna is reimbursing policy holders for purchasing Apple Watches due to studies showing owning an Apple Watch improves health.

“Beginning this fall, Aetna will make Apple Watch available to select large employers and individual customers during open enrollment season, and Aetna will be the first major health care company to subsidize a significant portion of the Apple Watch cost, offering monthly payroll deductions to make covering the remaining cost easier.”

EDIT: As I published this OA posted $FIT as a buy.

Maybe this was a masterstroke by Apple to jump ahead in the health wearables game. The Apple Watch has not exactly been flying off the shelves. With Apple’s cash hoard they can easily put down a competitor like Fitbit and this would be a way that is aligned with Apple’s culture of not competing on price. The price of the watch to Aetna is not disclosed. Apples gains a huge user base for their ailing product and now they can push out a competitor.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Fitbit. They have an agreement to supply watches to Target:

The difference? Target and its employees are funding their purchases. Aetna is the first major U.S. insurer to pick up the tab, turning it into a big win for Apple. And, if this becomes the new norm, it’s going to turn into an even bigger win for the consumer-tech company.

Again, pointing to Apple subsidizing the Watch to Aetna to secure the win over Fitbit. Aetna is not picking the most expensive wearable in this race.

And then there’s this:

Why would Aetna opt for novelty technology that also performs some basic health-related functions over a more cost-effective tool built from the ground up to monitor and improve health? It simply looks bad.

The answer is apps.

The Apple watch, when in sync with an iPhone, can provide several tools, all aimed at assisting users to live healthier. In so doing, one of the biggest flaws of the Fitbit wearable (and hurdle for FIT stock) comes to light. That is, at the end of the day it’s just an activity tracker, whereas Apple’s smart device is a true assistant that can improve outcomes even beyond monitoring.


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$TWLO catching a wave

Possibly in Wave 5 of this structure. Price limited to ~$80 max before we’ll enter corrective phase.



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Breakout in $ILMN and $NOW

ServiceNow $NOW breaks out of Triple Top and resistance going back to January. Conservatively wait till 80 or $81 or build a small position today sub $80. Stop at $73.


Illumina $ILMN breaks quadruple top and resistance going back to January. Stop at $164.


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