Elections are like Baseball. It only gets interesting when the playoffs start.
Here’s why Trump will win:
1) Russia. What the fuck are we doing? The voters are tired of the US being the world’s policeman. Trump may be a nut but he’s a nut focused inwardly on our problems vs ginning up some drama with Putin. Focusing inward is the best domestic and foreign policy by any POTUS or candidate in the past 30 years. Make America Great Again (except with less racism involved).
2) The Fed. Trump has called them out. He may crash western finance as we know it once in office but it was going to happen anyway. At least he’d be a POTUS dealing with reality vs fiction.
3) Trump is what he is. He’s a xenophobic billionaire womanizer. Who fucking cares. We all have flaws. He’s owned most of his crap and it’s only made him more relatable. It makes him trustworthy by comparison that his cards are on the table.
4) Polls showed Brexit would fail because it was impolite dinner conversation but when in the privacy of a voting booth people pulled the lever that was anti-establishment. I think we’ll see a lot of that in November and it’s not measured in pre election polls.
5) Trump will get more of the woman and minority vote than people are predicting. People are more willing to take the bad with the good than is estimated.
6) “Anything but this” syndrome. The public are so fed up they’ll take a sharp stick in the eye to avoid continuing to get reamed up the ass. The issues may not matter to them, they just want “different”. On some level they know they are voting for a revolution. Consider he’s the least worst candidate.
7) He’s a billionaire and yet he can still get more connected to Middle America than HRC, even if he’s tweeting ad hominem attacks from this gold toilet bowl at 3AM. You may not like what he’s saying but you can get why he’s saying it.
8) He’s survived more attacks than any candidate ever. He’s the fucking honey badger of POTUS election cycles.
9) Trump didn’t cheat Bernie Sanders out of his shot to be the nominee.
10) He’s an American success story. He may have had a leg up and acted like a dick but he’s a billionaire and that draws people in. It says nothing about him being suited for political office but a successful outsider appeals more than an ineffective career politician.
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I know you’re out there laying everything you can at +400 on the Trump win. I mean, after all, you have 10 reasons he’s gonna win.
Brexit failing was assumed at up to 90%. People were fed up. Same here.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-london-bets-tilted-bookmakers-brexit-odds-1466976156
I’m not a Trumper. I’m just saying I can see how he could win.
Did you disagree with any of the reason’s and if so, which ones? I appreciate the non-wonkish common sense type post.
Thanks for the comment. I wrote that post to express a point of view and perspective that I think is overlooked. It’s not necessarily how I feel about things but I can see how a combination of 6+ of those items leads to Trump winning.