Portfolio 03/26/13

Things are busy this morning; therefore I do not have much time for discussion.

I will admit to being quite nervous about this market.  The easiest trades should feel effortless, conversely I feel like I am reaching a bit by taking on my highest levels of risk this year.  How this resolves is anyone’s guess, but I am positioned for another leg higher.

Yesterday built confidence through the 2+% appreciation of several of my positions.  The advance was quite orderly, not a gap higher and do nothing kind of situation.

This morning I am seeing a lot of red, but premarket has not really been a very telling barometer for the remainder of the session of late, so I should probably just ignore what is going on there.

Lastly, as I have alluded to on several occasions, I decided to add (double) to my CNO position yesterday right before the close at 11.46.

We are back to 14% cash in a car made of dynamite sticks; however we have not yet set a course for the heart of the sun.

2013-03-26perf 2013-03-26-EM

Thoughts on 7 Stocks

GDOT

There were many times I was tempted to get into this stock but those intraday fades resulting in the ugly upper wicks always scared me off.  My mistake.

GDOT

TPX

I still think there is time to get in on the Raul3 Special.

TPX

AIV

Maybe?  I’d like to see it overtake the recent breakout high at 30.85.

AIV

DAL

I have been waiting for my opportunity since early March, this may be it.

DAL

CSX

Prediction time: this stock will make an all-time high in 2013.

CSX

BLC

This stock has been calmly drifting sideways for almost 3 weeks.  My guess is that this is much higher 2 months from now.

BLC

MAS

This looks like another bullish setup.

MAS

-EM

 

Portfolio 03/25/13

There is nothing quite like opening up the brokerage account window on your computer to see one of your positions down over 5%.  The frantic keystrokes in the Firefox search window, banging out the characters: “earnings calendar” only to see that I did not obtain erroneous information…**whew**.

So what the hell happened to CLMT?

Evidently the company is wont to dilute the supply of their stock (via offering more shares) to buy more things.  I cannot say that I blame them…though as a shareholder, in this merely for a trade (not an investment), I find their tactics to be a bit unsavory this hideous “spring” morning.

As I mentioned last night, I have been motivated to buy more shares by what I am seeing in a number of stocks.

In this vein, I added to BX late in the day, and really really wanted to pull the trigger on a double of my CNO position, but decided to set free my languishing GE position instead.  I still like the intermediate to long term prospects of GE and will certainly keep it on watch, but there is just too much sideways churning (with nothing to show for it) at this point to warrant a 5% asset allocation.

So where do we stand?  I believe that the market is currently correcting through time, allowing many individual names to set up (this is the action that I am seeing in a lot of “leading” stocks).  I do not think that we see a swift move lower from here.  If we do get a big move to the downside, the scenario I see transpiring is the following: there will be a breakout which lures a bunch of people into the market as it makes new highs, only to have those late-comers summoned to the city square for swift penis removal.

I am positioned in advance of this move and will look to take profits on any substantial move higher in my stocks.

2013-03-25perf 2013-03-25-EM

Risk: ON?

“Don’t chase risk.  Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible.  Tighten up that risk.  Get it tight, get it right.”

-Raul3

I know that is almost always the prudent course of action, but here I find myself with my lowest cash level of the year (17%).

Reason being: the stocks I’m in and continue to watch all still sport bullish ‘looks’,

Yes, I should probably be more cautious and skeptical here (at least from an emotional standpoint), but (many of) the facts seem to be telling a different story.  I had to stop myself from doubling down on CNO at the closing bell.

With all of that being said, I won’t hesitate to cast off the chaff (see: my liquidation of GE this afternoon).  I have specific milestones in mind with the stocks that I own, if they fail to live up to those expectations, bye bye.

Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment.  We shall find out in the coming days.

-EM

Portfolio 03/22/13

In Friday’s update, I spoke of being timid in the face of deploying cash into new positions.

Hours (if not minutes) later, I changed my mind and started adding to my AEIS and CLMT positions.  Both of those companies were originally breakout buys, but in this market, I feel like any retreat to the 20 day is screaming “BUY ME NOW”, so I obliged, effectively doubling my stake in both names.

After scaling profits in RWT a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I was looking to buy back if there was a pullback that interested me…well, that opportunity came on Friday afternoon. My purchase in the stock brings my position to slightly greater than it originally was, but this time (obviously) with a decent buffer of profits already in my satchel.  I’m looking for much higher prices from here and an opportunity to repeat the process.

Lastly, I decided to start a position in SYMC.  I thought about buying on the break above 23 a few weeks ago, but felt like it was already getting extended and decided to hold off for a better setup.  Well, after two weeks of sideways trading, I figured “now this is a better setup” and pulled the trigger on a starter.

This is another of these “thin air” trades that I have been making recently.  With a push above 25, there is very little in the way of resistance all the way to all-time highs (made in 2004) around 34.  I will become much more skeptical about this position on a break below the 20 day.  Keep your risk low and your profit potential high.

If this Costanza rally off of the cordial news out of Cyprus continues (and at this hour, it appears to be fading), with my cash levels now below 15%, I am looking at pushing back through all-time highs.

2013-03-22perf 2013-03-22

-EM

 

Portfolio 03/21/13

Throughout yesterday’s session I kept my eye on a few stocks (9 to be exact) looking to initiate new positions or add to existing positions.  A few had me optimistic, while others did not.

Bottom line, I did not buy anything.  I am not exactly sure why I continue to err on the side of caution, seeing that this is a bull market, you know?  There are no technical signs of panic or even distribution.  Hell, the S&P hasn’t even retreated to the 20 day…yet I continue to sit here and give this market the “side eye”.

One thing that does have me a bit alarmed is the ongoing breakdown in GS.  If the endless siphon of POMObucks from The Beard can’t keep the train a-movin’ forward, well, that is a bit disconcerting.  Keep an eye on those developments.

If my cash position was higher, I would probably be more aggressive here, but I also watched a month ago as all of my 2013 effort was vaporized in a matter of days.  At this juncture, I’d rather protect what I have made and set free stocks that are acting like idiots, than to go “all in” in (what could be) the latter stages of a bull run.

2013-03-21perf 2013-03-21

-EM

Portfolio 03/20/13

Greetings to my tens of readers, we have reached an interesting point in matters regarding the stock exchange. I was waiting for many of the stocks I am interested in buying to “pull back” or “consolidate”.  I am seeing evidence of this happening in a number of different names that I hold in high regard.

Throughout this year I have been patiently picking my spots, chipping away with modest, but steady gains.  Now I find myself in the opportune position of having 25% cash and several interesting places to invest said cash.

Granted, I would not be at all surprised if I get sucked into being 100% invested here and have things turn south on me…quickly.  Since 2009, I have often found that the best “looking” opportunities often turn to dust (and worse) when I try to execute them with real money.  Therefore, yes, I am a little eery here about going for it…but fortune favors the bold, no?

It’s been a while, so why not provide some notes on my positions?

AEIS has retreated to the 20 day.  Since this rally has started, the 20 day has acted as support for pretty much everything in an “uptrend”.  If we are to continue higher, I would be remiss if I neglected this opportunity to add here.  I will be watching this one very quietly…waiting to pounce.

BX is another that has come in a bit and has been found nuzzling up to the 9 day EMA as support since Monday.  I’m tempted here, but I’m also aware that the 20 day is about 80 cents lower from here, so since I already have a position that is treading water here I might as well wait and see what transpires before allocating additional funds.

I gave you CBI as a gift in the high 40’s.  I’m still kicking myself for not reloading after earnings.  Big winner.

I thought I was given a premium buying opportunity in CLMT when I bought shares last week…now it has (like AEIS) retreated to just below the 20 day.  What concerns me is the moving average now appears to be acting as resistance more than support.  I am interested in adding to the position here, but I do want to see how it handles the aforementioned resistance before making any decisions.

CNO is “basing”.  I’m not a huge fan on trading breakouts, but if that is your thing, a strong move over 11.7 could see this one really start to fly.  I am seeing a volume void on this one up to 17.5, so there is room to run once it breaks free.

CVD has been busy “honey badgering” this week after breaking above the recent 6 week base.  I’m seeing a volume void into the low 80’s and will be looking to add on a pullback.

The GE daily chart looks like shit.  Lots of gaps that have been faded, resulting in black candles…which is really unappealing to my delicate ocular sensibilities.  Due to the relatively low beta of this stock, the starter that I bought constitutes about 5% of my assets, if this nonsense continues I’ll be looking to free up some cashola via selling some or all of this laggard.

IWM is an incredible place to put a percentage of your portfolio when things are going good.

I gave you some analysis on MGA back in late January in the low 50’s.  It broke higher yesterday and has a date with an all-time high at 62.20 in the coming weeks.

MRH recorded the highest close since September…2005 yesterday.  This is a MASSIVE volume void people.  Yes, I know this stock seems boring, but there is little in the way of resistance until 29.  There is also a huge gap from 2005 between 28 and 30.  Runner potential here.

PCL closed over 50 for the first time since 2008.  I still like this one for the dividend and the opportunity to get back to an all-time high around 56.

RWT has retreated.  I have sizable realized gains in the name, and as I have mentioned in the past, I am looking to add shares when an opportunity arises.  This one is on Defcon 3 watch, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the start of a lengthier base.  Still lots of clean air above in the volume void.

2013-03-20perf 2013-03-20

-EM

Portfolio 03/19/13

My apologies for the lack of narrative over the course of these last two updates, but evidently these are busy times for crossing guards.

I didn’t sell anything yesterday, I didn’t buy anything either.  This gap higher this morning is throwing a kink into my plans involving adding to/starting new positions on a dip.  That’s part of the reason why I dislike gaps.  Though, something tells me that this opening move will be faded.

Here is how I stand after yesterday:

2013-03-19perf 2013-03-19

-EM

Portfolio 03/18/13

Busy at work this morning, not much time to write.  I am hoping for the market to come in a bit more here…maybe 1 or 2 days of hectic selling to scare the shit out of “weak handed” market participants only to set up another fantastic buying opportunity.  Keep in mind that the ‘oversold’ buying opportunities that I’m looking for become fewer and fewer as a rally stretches onward, so we have to recognize and take advantage of them when the moment presents itself.  As for me, I’m content with my positioning for the time being.

2013-03-18perf 2013-03-18

-EM

http://youtu.be/p_ywkpVJ624

Portfolio 03/15/13

I would appear that the relentless march upward has taken a pause, thanks to events over the weekend on some island in the Mediterranean named “Cyprus”.  I have heard rumours (sic) of an advancing army on Thermopylae which could spook the market out of another 50-100  points in coming days.

Honestly, even though my paper profits are positioned to be halved in the coming days, this is what the “bad news” hawks are clinging to…Cyprus…yes, you know, the Cyprus that contributes…well, I’m not really sure what Cyprus contributes to the world economy, so I’ll have to get back to you on that.

My point is this: watch how the market reacts during this pullback.  So far, the one dip we have seen was the best buying opportunity of the year.  Hell, I hope volatility spikes again just so I can buy up VXX puts in my “idiot account” like a deranged maniac.

Anyway, I was on the teetering on the verge of selling 25% of every one of my discretionary positions (i.e., everything but IWM) late on Friday, but I had to leave work early to attend a home inspection, and therefore didn’t have an opportunity to do so.  Based on experience, those ‘gut feelings’ are more often than not the proper course of action…and I chose to ignore it at my own peril.

C’est la vie.

2013-03-15perf 2013-03-15

-EM

Portfolio 03/26/13

Things are busy this morning; therefore I do not have much time for discussion.

I will admit to being quite nervous about this market.  The easiest trades should feel effortless, conversely I feel like I am reaching a bit by taking on my highest levels of risk this year.  How this resolves is anyone’s guess, but I am positioned for another leg higher.

Yesterday built confidence through the 2+% appreciation of several of my positions.  The advance was quite orderly, not a gap higher and do nothing kind of situation.

This morning I am seeing a lot of red, but premarket has not really been a very telling barometer for the remainder of the session of late, so I should probably just ignore what is going on there.

Lastly, as I have alluded to on several occasions, I decided to add (double) to my CNO position yesterday right before the close at 11.46.

We are back to 14% cash in a car made of dynamite sticks; however we have not yet set a course for the heart of the sun.

2013-03-26perf 2013-03-26-EM

Thoughts on 7 Stocks

GDOT

There were many times I was tempted to get into this stock but those intraday fades resulting in the ugly upper wicks always scared me off.  My mistake.

GDOT

TPX

I still think there is time to get in on the Raul3 Special.

TPX

AIV

Maybe?  I’d like to see it overtake the recent breakout high at 30.85.

AIV

DAL

I have been waiting for my opportunity since early March, this may be it.

DAL

CSX

Prediction time: this stock will make an all-time high in 2013.

CSX

BLC

This stock has been calmly drifting sideways for almost 3 weeks.  My guess is that this is much higher 2 months from now.

BLC

MAS

This looks like another bullish setup.

MAS

-EM

 

Portfolio 03/25/13

There is nothing quite like opening up the brokerage account window on your computer to see one of your positions down over 5%.  The frantic keystrokes in the Firefox search window, banging out the characters: “earnings calendar” only to see that I did not obtain erroneous information…**whew**.

So what the hell happened to CLMT?

Evidently the company is wont to dilute the supply of their stock (via offering more shares) to buy more things.  I cannot say that I blame them…though as a shareholder, in this merely for a trade (not an investment), I find their tactics to be a bit unsavory this hideous “spring” morning.

As I mentioned last night, I have been motivated to buy more shares by what I am seeing in a number of stocks.

In this vein, I added to BX late in the day, and really really wanted to pull the trigger on a double of my CNO position, but decided to set free my languishing GE position instead.  I still like the intermediate to long term prospects of GE and will certainly keep it on watch, but there is just too much sideways churning (with nothing to show for it) at this point to warrant a 5% asset allocation.

So where do we stand?  I believe that the market is currently correcting through time, allowing many individual names to set up (this is the action that I am seeing in a lot of “leading” stocks).  I do not think that we see a swift move lower from here.  If we do get a big move to the downside, the scenario I see transpiring is the following: there will be a breakout which lures a bunch of people into the market as it makes new highs, only to have those late-comers summoned to the city square for swift penis removal.

I am positioned in advance of this move and will look to take profits on any substantial move higher in my stocks.

2013-03-25perf 2013-03-25-EM

Risk: ON?

“Don’t chase risk.  Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible.  Tighten up that risk.  Get it tight, get it right.”

-Raul3

I know that is almost always the prudent course of action, but here I find myself with my lowest cash level of the year (17%).

Reason being: the stocks I’m in and continue to watch all still sport bullish ‘looks’,

Yes, I should probably be more cautious and skeptical here (at least from an emotional standpoint), but (many of) the facts seem to be telling a different story.  I had to stop myself from doubling down on CNO at the closing bell.

With all of that being said, I won’t hesitate to cast off the chaff (see: my liquidation of GE this afternoon).  I have specific milestones in mind with the stocks that I own, if they fail to live up to those expectations, bye bye.

Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment.  We shall find out in the coming days.

-EM

Portfolio 03/22/13

In Friday’s update, I spoke of being timid in the face of deploying cash into new positions.

Hours (if not minutes) later, I changed my mind and started adding to my AEIS and CLMT positions.  Both of those companies were originally breakout buys, but in this market, I feel like any retreat to the 20 day is screaming “BUY ME NOW”, so I obliged, effectively doubling my stake in both names.

After scaling profits in RWT a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I was looking to buy back if there was a pullback that interested me…well, that opportunity came on Friday afternoon. My purchase in the stock brings my position to slightly greater than it originally was, but this time (obviously) with a decent buffer of profits already in my satchel.  I’m looking for much higher prices from here and an opportunity to repeat the process.

Lastly, I decided to start a position in SYMC.  I thought about buying on the break above 23 a few weeks ago, but felt like it was already getting extended and decided to hold off for a better setup.  Well, after two weeks of sideways trading, I figured “now this is a better setup” and pulled the trigger on a starter.

This is another of these “thin air” trades that I have been making recently.  With a push above 25, there is very little in the way of resistance all the way to all-time highs (made in 2004) around 34.  I will become much more skeptical about this position on a break below the 20 day.  Keep your risk low and your profit potential high.

If this Costanza rally off of the cordial news out of Cyprus continues (and at this hour, it appears to be fading), with my cash levels now below 15%, I am looking at pushing back through all-time highs.

2013-03-22perf 2013-03-22

-EM

 

Portfolio 03/21/13

Throughout yesterday’s session I kept my eye on a few stocks (9 to be exact) looking to initiate new positions or add to existing positions.  A few had me optimistic, while others did not.

Bottom line, I did not buy anything.  I am not exactly sure why I continue to err on the side of caution, seeing that this is a bull market, you know?  There are no technical signs of panic or even distribution.  Hell, the S&P hasn’t even retreated to the 20 day…yet I continue to sit here and give this market the “side eye”.

One thing that does have me a bit alarmed is the ongoing breakdown in GS.  If the endless siphon of POMObucks from The Beard can’t keep the train a-movin’ forward, well, that is a bit disconcerting.  Keep an eye on those developments.

If my cash position was higher, I would probably be more aggressive here, but I also watched a month ago as all of my 2013 effort was vaporized in a matter of days.  At this juncture, I’d rather protect what I have made and set free stocks that are acting like idiots, than to go “all in” in (what could be) the latter stages of a bull run.

2013-03-21perf 2013-03-21

-EM

Portfolio 03/20/13

Greetings to my tens of readers, we have reached an interesting point in matters regarding the stock exchange. I was waiting for many of the stocks I am interested in buying to “pull back” or “consolidate”.  I am seeing evidence of this happening in a number of different names that I hold in high regard.

Throughout this year I have been patiently picking my spots, chipping away with modest, but steady gains.  Now I find myself in the opportune position of having 25% cash and several interesting places to invest said cash.

Granted, I would not be at all surprised if I get sucked into being 100% invested here and have things turn south on me…quickly.  Since 2009, I have often found that the best “looking” opportunities often turn to dust (and worse) when I try to execute them with real money.  Therefore, yes, I am a little eery here about going for it…but fortune favors the bold, no?

It’s been a while, so why not provide some notes on my positions?

AEIS has retreated to the 20 day.  Since this rally has started, the 20 day has acted as support for pretty much everything in an “uptrend”.  If we are to continue higher, I would be remiss if I neglected this opportunity to add here.  I will be watching this one very quietly…waiting to pounce.

BX is another that has come in a bit and has been found nuzzling up to the 9 day EMA as support since Monday.  I’m tempted here, but I’m also aware that the 20 day is about 80 cents lower from here, so since I already have a position that is treading water here I might as well wait and see what transpires before allocating additional funds.

I gave you CBI as a gift in the high 40’s.  I’m still kicking myself for not reloading after earnings.  Big winner.

I thought I was given a premium buying opportunity in CLMT when I bought shares last week…now it has (like AEIS) retreated to just below the 20 day.  What concerns me is the moving average now appears to be acting as resistance more than support.  I am interested in adding to the position here, but I do want to see how it handles the aforementioned resistance before making any decisions.

CNO is “basing”.  I’m not a huge fan on trading breakouts, but if that is your thing, a strong move over 11.7 could see this one really start to fly.  I am seeing a volume void on this one up to 17.5, so there is room to run once it breaks free.

CVD has been busy “honey badgering” this week after breaking above the recent 6 week base.  I’m seeing a volume void into the low 80’s and will be looking to add on a pullback.

The GE daily chart looks like shit.  Lots of gaps that have been faded, resulting in black candles…which is really unappealing to my delicate ocular sensibilities.  Due to the relatively low beta of this stock, the starter that I bought constitutes about 5% of my assets, if this nonsense continues I’ll be looking to free up some cashola via selling some or all of this laggard.

IWM is an incredible place to put a percentage of your portfolio when things are going good.

I gave you some analysis on MGA back in late January in the low 50’s.  It broke higher yesterday and has a date with an all-time high at 62.20 in the coming weeks.

MRH recorded the highest close since September…2005 yesterday.  This is a MASSIVE volume void people.  Yes, I know this stock seems boring, but there is little in the way of resistance until 29.  There is also a huge gap from 2005 between 28 and 30.  Runner potential here.

PCL closed over 50 for the first time since 2008.  I still like this one for the dividend and the opportunity to get back to an all-time high around 56.

RWT has retreated.  I have sizable realized gains in the name, and as I have mentioned in the past, I am looking to add shares when an opportunity arises.  This one is on Defcon 3 watch, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the start of a lengthier base.  Still lots of clean air above in the volume void.

2013-03-20perf 2013-03-20

-EM

Portfolio 03/19/13

My apologies for the lack of narrative over the course of these last two updates, but evidently these are busy times for crossing guards.

I didn’t sell anything yesterday, I didn’t buy anything either.  This gap higher this morning is throwing a kink into my plans involving adding to/starting new positions on a dip.  That’s part of the reason why I dislike gaps.  Though, something tells me that this opening move will be faded.

Here is how I stand after yesterday:

2013-03-19perf 2013-03-19

-EM

Portfolio 03/18/13

Busy at work this morning, not much time to write.  I am hoping for the market to come in a bit more here…maybe 1 or 2 days of hectic selling to scare the shit out of “weak handed” market participants only to set up another fantastic buying opportunity.  Keep in mind that the ‘oversold’ buying opportunities that I’m looking for become fewer and fewer as a rally stretches onward, so we have to recognize and take advantage of them when the moment presents itself.  As for me, I’m content with my positioning for the time being.

2013-03-18perf 2013-03-18

-EM

http://youtu.be/p_ywkpVJ624

Portfolio 03/15/13

I would appear that the relentless march upward has taken a pause, thanks to events over the weekend on some island in the Mediterranean named “Cyprus”.  I have heard rumours (sic) of an advancing army on Thermopylae which could spook the market out of another 50-100  points in coming days.

Honestly, even though my paper profits are positioned to be halved in the coming days, this is what the “bad news” hawks are clinging to…Cyprus…yes, you know, the Cyprus that contributes…well, I’m not really sure what Cyprus contributes to the world economy, so I’ll have to get back to you on that.

My point is this: watch how the market reacts during this pullback.  So far, the one dip we have seen was the best buying opportunity of the year.  Hell, I hope volatility spikes again just so I can buy up VXX puts in my “idiot account” like a deranged maniac.

Anyway, I was on the teetering on the verge of selling 25% of every one of my discretionary positions (i.e., everything but IWM) late on Friday, but I had to leave work early to attend a home inspection, and therefore didn’t have an opportunity to do so.  Based on experience, those ‘gut feelings’ are more often than not the proper course of action…and I chose to ignore it at my own peril.

C’est la vie.

2013-03-15perf 2013-03-15

-EM