Weekly Top 10

1,132 views

Since my promotion at the turn of the year, I have treated this opportunity as one grande experiment.  A chance to share my thoughts, practically unfiltered with a sizable audience.

Naturally the focus of my material would need to be geared toward the stock market, but I felt like most blogs that talk about stocks are kind of derivative and mundane.  During the Great iBC Election of 2012, I had a bunch of ideas darting around in my head for what I wanted to do with my blog should I be elected (those plans were unfortunately put on ice for a few weeks).

I knew that I wanted to run a model portfolio with complete transparency.  I don’t give a rat’s behind if it is egregiously self-indulgent, I can’t tell you how valuable the experience has been.  Yes, the market is going up every single day and any mammal with a pulse can make money, so my paltry return is nothing to write home about.

NEVERTHELESS, the experience of sitting down and making sure I have all of my “ducks in a row” prior to and during a the course of a trade is very empowering.  Even when these stocks behave like jackasses (see: CBI, Friday 2/8) I’m completely in control of the trade(s).  I’d rather be grinding out slow-but-steady gains and feeling in control than hitting a few home runs and just flying all over the damn map (see: 2012, all).

The whole volume pocket, watchlist, “Top 10” list thing has been completely organic.  I had never even used “Price by Volume” on my charts prior to mid-December, but once I started delving, I knew that this was something I wanted to explore.

No matter what those godforsaken (!!) Google statistics say, this blog has provided me with an incredible venue to explore my thoughts and document my behavior/performance.  As always, I appreciate your readership and contributions…thanks for giving me a few minutes of your day, I really do appreciate that.

I realize that these Top 10 lists probably seem a bit esoteric, but I promise you, the process is really quite simple.  What we are measuring here is the price of a stock as it relates to various “locales” within a volume pocket.

If you recall, I mentioned the other day how I am interested in trading 70% of the pocket (thus placing a 15% buffer on the top and bottom of the pocket).  I take that 70% and divide it into 4 equal segments.  These are the “watch prices”.  The stocks in my watchlist are sorted (i.e., ranked) by the percentage difference between the close and watch price.

Again, nothing groundbreaking here.

Our goal here is to monitor these stocks as they enter these areas of historically low volume, and to profit from the hypothesized supply/demand imbalance.  Through repeated exposure to the same stocks on this list, we can form a heightened understanding of how they behave.  When the time comes to trade the stock, we can be prepared.

This IS the “tall grass” of the stock trading world.  I may wait years for some of these stocks to enter the volume pocket(s) I have identified, but when they do, I will be waiting.

One final note, I am only going to post daily charts on these updates from now on.  Weekly charts will be kept up-to-date (no more than 1 week old) in the deep south of the interwebs: chartpin.

Okokok, enough words, on with the list:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. DEPO, 7.00

9. MDP, 38.10

8. MBFI, 23.40

7. GDOT, 14.80

6. ALJ, 21.20

5. MGA, 54.20

4. CBI, 52.40

3. CVD, 68.90

2. RWT, 19.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Friday’s Top 10

1,463 views

From my volume pocket watchlist, here are my 10 favorite stocks:

(Ticker, watch price)

These are all daily charts, aside from the volume pocket and watch price, they remain unmarked for your own visual/technical interpretation.

10. MDP, 38.10

9. GDOT, 14.80

8. DEPO, 7.00

7. MBFI, 23.40

6. MGA, 54.20

5. GTN, 4.10

4. CVD, 68.90

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

The Top 10

1,719 views

Please pardon my tenor last evening when I sarcastically quipped about markets advancing 5% per month as the “new normal”.

Ah yes, recall those few gloomy hours on Monday afternoon.  You remember, that time when people were losing money on the stock exchange?  Men dressed in burlap and blue blazers were seen “talking hurriedly with crackers falling out of their mouths” (I can’t speak to that).

Then Benjamin Bernanke eased back in his study with a “Catch a Fire” sized spliff and was rumoured (sic) to have mentioned something about “bitches” and “getting (them) real good” (I can’t speak to that either).

Anyway, the ‘fun wagon’ left the station bright and early today and brought easy money to anyone with a brain, pulse and brokerage account (no offense to the shorts out there…but come on…).

There was some “moving” and “shaking” atop the leaderboard, leaving us with the following rundown:

Daily charts unless noted, links go to chartpin.

(Stock, Watch Price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GDOT, 14.80

WEEKLY

8. BG, 82.00

7. MGA, 54.20

6. CVD, 68.90

5. ALJ, 19.90

4. DEPO, 7.00

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Portfolio 02/04/13; A Word about “Watch Prices”

529 views

I would like to speak about the “watch level” prices that I highlight, previously in my watchlist updates and now in the “Top 10” posts that I have been producing in recent weeks.

When I first started on my analysis of volume pockets, one thing that really intrigued me was the ability to gauge the size of a potential move.  In an ideal world, if everything breaks as planned, then a price target can be set at the top of the volume void.  With the extremes of the volume pocket as our guide we can safely approximate the boundaries of the range in which we want to trade, thus we now have a baseline (bottom of the void) and a target (top of the void).

After years of reading, observation and experience I have come to find that the “easy money” (relative term) is made in the middle of a lengthy bull (or bear…but on a much shorter time frame) move.  In other words, your probability for winning improves dramatically when you catch the ‘meat’ of a move versus trying call a top and/or a bottom.

Once the momentum is underway, my goal is to hitch on to that train and let it take me where it wants to go, which hopefully is in the direction I am speculating.  I have my risk parameters in place, I know that the stock is already moving in the direction that I want it to move in and I have an edge based on the fact that a supply/demand imbalance exists in the form of a lack of historical volume.

Ok, so back to the idea of catching the bulk of the move and how that relates to my “watch prices”.  I am interested in catching 70% of the move through the volume pocket.  This means that I place a 15% buffer on the bottom of the volume pocket and a 15% buffer on the top of the pocket.

With the remaining 70% I set up my “watch prices”.  Ideally, I want to build a position throughout the 70%, nibbling on bits here and there, having a full boat by the time we reach the top buffer level.  I break down the 70% region into 4 equally spaced buy zones.  This is what the “watch prices” signify.  Keep in mind that this doesn’t automatically mean that I’m going to buy the stock once these prices are hit.  In theory, one could do that and it probably would work just fine, but after using this method for a bit, I feel like I can control risk better through being more subjective with where I start a position and/or add shares.

The essence of this is (in theory) to build a position throughout the void.

As for my holdings:

  • AN has come in a bit since making an all-time high Friday on the gap higher.  I’m looking for more consolidation here and will probably add shares at some point TBD.
  • CBI has the look of a stock that wants to march higher but is being held back by a sluggish general market.  With a broad market rally, I see this moving through 52.5 with ease.
  • CTB looks to be slowly rolling over.  This will likely be liquidated shortly.
  • ESV is tightening up quite nicely.  As I monitor these stocks I continue to come across stocks that have spent 1-2 days marching higher only to pull back and consolidate in a calm and orderly fashion.  From a risk/reward standpoint, I feel like this is a better time to buy.
  • MRH is another stock that continues to defy the selloff in the broad market.  24 has acted as support for 2 weeks now, I’m looking for this to break much higher.  Unfortunately (for me trying to build a position), earnings are on Thursday after the close.  Therefore similar to how I traded AN, I will be liquidating 75% of my position prior to that time.
  • Yesterday I documented my desire to add more PCL based on how The PPT has handled the stock since the rally (in this name) started in November.  I held off due to the cascading of the market into the close, but this does look like a good place to add a bit.  Since I already bought a large chunk last week, if I do go through with it, the add will be small.  Additionally, this stock typically goes ex-div the second or third week in February (and pays 0.42 quarterly), so we have that to look forward to.
  • WGO appears to have hit a snag and is being closely monitored for liquidation.  I do not at all like how it broke down yesterday.

 

-EM

Updated Top 10

1,022 views

It’s been a while since we had a day similar to today…the end of December is the last I can remember.  In my experience, it’s easy to get complacent and simply become accustomed to the market marching higher day after day without realizing that kind of nonsense is completely unsustainable.  Eventually there will be days where the market gives back…unless 5% monthly broad market gains are to be expected?

Anyway, here are the top 10 stocks on my watchlist:

These are daily charts unless noted.  You can access the weeklies by clicking on the ticker symbol, at which time you will be taken to the chartpin page of the corresponding stock.

Enjoy:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. PCL, 50.60

Weekly

9. GE, 23.30

8. MGA, 54.20

7. BG, 82.00

6. CVD, 68.90

5. CBI, 52.40

4. RWT, 19.40

3. GTN, 4.10

Weekly

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

I’ll be back in the a.m. with some thoughts and a portfolio update.  Enjoy your evening.

-EM

 

Being Under-Invested is All the Rage

587 views

Sure, I ‘him-hawed’ my way to muted gains in January, but one must BEHOLD the decadence of an all-long portfolio + 37% cash position as the market knifes (knives?) lower:

Warning, do not attempt these feats of mind and matter at home.

In all seriousness, a few stocks from the Top 10 continue to hold up pretty well, most notably:

CBI

RWT

DEPO

-EM

Watchlist: Top 10

1,559 views

Here is the latest from the front with a new twist added in for your enjoyment.

Instead of being sent to the the corresponding finviz page, when you click on the ticker link you will be taken to the chartpin page for the corresponding stock.  There you will find (starting with this week, well…this post, actually) a record of each time I publish a chart corresponding to that particular ticker (in addition to any other charts of that ticker, posted by chartpin users).

In this post, I’m going to stick with the typical 9.5 year weekly charts that accompany my analysis, but I will be posting 6 month-daily charts on chartpin (with no technical indicators, only the volume pocket ‘shadow’ and horizontal line corresponding to my “watch price”).

On this blog we count down.

(ticker, watch price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GE, 23.30

8. BG, 82.00

7. FSS, 8.60

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CVD. 68.90

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

New Blood

694 views

A few new names are showing up in my “Top 10” list (more on that this weekend).  For now, here are some daily charts of the suspects:

ACAS

ALJ

DEPO

MBFI

-EM

New Watchlist Addition: $MDP

383 views

Running through my two (2) screens this morning, I happened upon a very interesting looking volume void prospect: Meredith Corporation (MDP).

After all, everyone knows, nothing says growth and momentum like periodical publishers!  Nevertheless, this stock has nice fundamentals (via The PPT)  a beeeeutiful looking low volume region directly ahead:

I am currently monitoring the stock for a break of 38.10.  This price also coincides with the previous attempts to enter the void since 2010, as identified by the orange arrows.

-EM

 

Weekly Top 10

1,132 views

Since my promotion at the turn of the year, I have treated this opportunity as one grande experiment.  A chance to share my thoughts, practically unfiltered with a sizable audience.

Naturally the focus of my material would need to be geared toward the stock market, but I felt like most blogs that talk about stocks are kind of derivative and mundane.  During the Great iBC Election of 2012, I had a bunch of ideas darting around in my head for what I wanted to do with my blog should I be elected (those plans were unfortunately put on ice for a few weeks).

I knew that I wanted to run a model portfolio with complete transparency.  I don’t give a rat’s behind if it is egregiously self-indulgent, I can’t tell you how valuable the experience has been.  Yes, the market is going up every single day and any mammal with a pulse can make money, so my paltry return is nothing to write home about.

NEVERTHELESS, the experience of sitting down and making sure I have all of my “ducks in a row” prior to and during a the course of a trade is very empowering.  Even when these stocks behave like jackasses (see: CBI, Friday 2/8) I’m completely in control of the trade(s).  I’d rather be grinding out slow-but-steady gains and feeling in control than hitting a few home runs and just flying all over the damn map (see: 2012, all).

The whole volume pocket, watchlist, “Top 10” list thing has been completely organic.  I had never even used “Price by Volume” on my charts prior to mid-December, but once I started delving, I knew that this was something I wanted to explore.

No matter what those godforsaken (!!) Google statistics say, this blog has provided me with an incredible venue to explore my thoughts and document my behavior/performance.  As always, I appreciate your readership and contributions…thanks for giving me a few minutes of your day, I really do appreciate that.

I realize that these Top 10 lists probably seem a bit esoteric, but I promise you, the process is really quite simple.  What we are measuring here is the price of a stock as it relates to various “locales” within a volume pocket.

If you recall, I mentioned the other day how I am interested in trading 70% of the pocket (thus placing a 15% buffer on the top and bottom of the pocket).  I take that 70% and divide it into 4 equal segments.  These are the “watch prices”.  The stocks in my watchlist are sorted (i.e., ranked) by the percentage difference between the close and watch price.

Again, nothing groundbreaking here.

Our goal here is to monitor these stocks as they enter these areas of historically low volume, and to profit from the hypothesized supply/demand imbalance.  Through repeated exposure to the same stocks on this list, we can form a heightened understanding of how they behave.  When the time comes to trade the stock, we can be prepared.

This IS the “tall grass” of the stock trading world.  I may wait years for some of these stocks to enter the volume pocket(s) I have identified, but when they do, I will be waiting.

One final note, I am only going to post daily charts on these updates from now on.  Weekly charts will be kept up-to-date (no more than 1 week old) in the deep south of the interwebs: chartpin.

Okokok, enough words, on with the list:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. DEPO, 7.00

9. MDP, 38.10

8. MBFI, 23.40

7. GDOT, 14.80

6. ALJ, 21.20

5. MGA, 54.20

4. CBI, 52.40

3. CVD, 68.90

2. RWT, 19.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Friday’s Top 10

1,463 views

From my volume pocket watchlist, here are my 10 favorite stocks:

(Ticker, watch price)

These are all daily charts, aside from the volume pocket and watch price, they remain unmarked for your own visual/technical interpretation.

10. MDP, 38.10

9. GDOT, 14.80

8. DEPO, 7.00

7. MBFI, 23.40

6. MGA, 54.20

5. GTN, 4.10

4. CVD, 68.90

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

The Top 10

1,719 views

Please pardon my tenor last evening when I sarcastically quipped about markets advancing 5% per month as the “new normal”.

Ah yes, recall those few gloomy hours on Monday afternoon.  You remember, that time when people were losing money on the stock exchange?  Men dressed in burlap and blue blazers were seen “talking hurriedly with crackers falling out of their mouths” (I can’t speak to that).

Then Benjamin Bernanke eased back in his study with a “Catch a Fire” sized spliff and was rumoured (sic) to have mentioned something about “bitches” and “getting (them) real good” (I can’t speak to that either).

Anyway, the ‘fun wagon’ left the station bright and early today and brought easy money to anyone with a brain, pulse and brokerage account (no offense to the shorts out there…but come on…).

There was some “moving” and “shaking” atop the leaderboard, leaving us with the following rundown:

Daily charts unless noted, links go to chartpin.

(Stock, Watch Price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GDOT, 14.80

WEEKLY

8. BG, 82.00

7. MGA, 54.20

6. CVD, 68.90

5. ALJ, 19.90

4. DEPO, 7.00

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Portfolio 02/04/13; A Word about “Watch Prices”

529 views

I would like to speak about the “watch level” prices that I highlight, previously in my watchlist updates and now in the “Top 10” posts that I have been producing in recent weeks.

When I first started on my analysis of volume pockets, one thing that really intrigued me was the ability to gauge the size of a potential move.  In an ideal world, if everything breaks as planned, then a price target can be set at the top of the volume void.  With the extremes of the volume pocket as our guide we can safely approximate the boundaries of the range in which we want to trade, thus we now have a baseline (bottom of the void) and a target (top of the void).

After years of reading, observation and experience I have come to find that the “easy money” (relative term) is made in the middle of a lengthy bull (or bear…but on a much shorter time frame) move.  In other words, your probability for winning improves dramatically when you catch the ‘meat’ of a move versus trying call a top and/or a bottom.

Once the momentum is underway, my goal is to hitch on to that train and let it take me where it wants to go, which hopefully is in the direction I am speculating.  I have my risk parameters in place, I know that the stock is already moving in the direction that I want it to move in and I have an edge based on the fact that a supply/demand imbalance exists in the form of a lack of historical volume.

Ok, so back to the idea of catching the bulk of the move and how that relates to my “watch prices”.  I am interested in catching 70% of the move through the volume pocket.  This means that I place a 15% buffer on the bottom of the volume pocket and a 15% buffer on the top of the pocket.

With the remaining 70% I set up my “watch prices”.  Ideally, I want to build a position throughout the 70%, nibbling on bits here and there, having a full boat by the time we reach the top buffer level.  I break down the 70% region into 4 equally spaced buy zones.  This is what the “watch prices” signify.  Keep in mind that this doesn’t automatically mean that I’m going to buy the stock once these prices are hit.  In theory, one could do that and it probably would work just fine, but after using this method for a bit, I feel like I can control risk better through being more subjective with where I start a position and/or add shares.

The essence of this is (in theory) to build a position throughout the void.

As for my holdings:

  • AN has come in a bit since making an all-time high Friday on the gap higher.  I’m looking for more consolidation here and will probably add shares at some point TBD.
  • CBI has the look of a stock that wants to march higher but is being held back by a sluggish general market.  With a broad market rally, I see this moving through 52.5 with ease.
  • CTB looks to be slowly rolling over.  This will likely be liquidated shortly.
  • ESV is tightening up quite nicely.  As I monitor these stocks I continue to come across stocks that have spent 1-2 days marching higher only to pull back and consolidate in a calm and orderly fashion.  From a risk/reward standpoint, I feel like this is a better time to buy.
  • MRH is another stock that continues to defy the selloff in the broad market.  24 has acted as support for 2 weeks now, I’m looking for this to break much higher.  Unfortunately (for me trying to build a position), earnings are on Thursday after the close.  Therefore similar to how I traded AN, I will be liquidating 75% of my position prior to that time.
  • Yesterday I documented my desire to add more PCL based on how The PPT has handled the stock since the rally (in this name) started in November.  I held off due to the cascading of the market into the close, but this does look like a good place to add a bit.  Since I already bought a large chunk last week, if I do go through with it, the add will be small.  Additionally, this stock typically goes ex-div the second or third week in February (and pays 0.42 quarterly), so we have that to look forward to.
  • WGO appears to have hit a snag and is being closely monitored for liquidation.  I do not at all like how it broke down yesterday.

 

-EM

Updated Top 10

1,022 views

It’s been a while since we had a day similar to today…the end of December is the last I can remember.  In my experience, it’s easy to get complacent and simply become accustomed to the market marching higher day after day without realizing that kind of nonsense is completely unsustainable.  Eventually there will be days where the market gives back…unless 5% monthly broad market gains are to be expected?

Anyway, here are the top 10 stocks on my watchlist:

These are daily charts unless noted.  You can access the weeklies by clicking on the ticker symbol, at which time you will be taken to the chartpin page of the corresponding stock.

Enjoy:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. PCL, 50.60

Weekly

9. GE, 23.30

8. MGA, 54.20

7. BG, 82.00

6. CVD, 68.90

5. CBI, 52.40

4. RWT, 19.40

3. GTN, 4.10

Weekly

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

I’ll be back in the a.m. with some thoughts and a portfolio update.  Enjoy your evening.

-EM

 

Being Under-Invested is All the Rage

587 views

Sure, I ‘him-hawed’ my way to muted gains in January, but one must BEHOLD the decadence of an all-long portfolio + 37% cash position as the market knifes (knives?) lower:

Warning, do not attempt these feats of mind and matter at home.

In all seriousness, a few stocks from the Top 10 continue to hold up pretty well, most notably:

CBI

RWT

DEPO

-EM

Watchlist: Top 10

1,559 views

Here is the latest from the front with a new twist added in for your enjoyment.

Instead of being sent to the the corresponding finviz page, when you click on the ticker link you will be taken to the chartpin page for the corresponding stock.  There you will find (starting with this week, well…this post, actually) a record of each time I publish a chart corresponding to that particular ticker (in addition to any other charts of that ticker, posted by chartpin users).

In this post, I’m going to stick with the typical 9.5 year weekly charts that accompany my analysis, but I will be posting 6 month-daily charts on chartpin (with no technical indicators, only the volume pocket ‘shadow’ and horizontal line corresponding to my “watch price”).

On this blog we count down.

(ticker, watch price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GE, 23.30

8. BG, 82.00

7. FSS, 8.60

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CVD. 68.90

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

New Blood

694 views

A few new names are showing up in my “Top 10” list (more on that this weekend).  For now, here are some daily charts of the suspects:

ACAS

ALJ

DEPO

MBFI

-EM

Watchlist: Top 10

1,039 views

Less words, MOAR pictures:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. BG, 82.00

9. ALJ, 19.90

8. PHM, 21.90

7. SODA, 53.60

6. CVD, 68.90

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CBI, 52.40

2. TPX, 41.40

1. VMC, 58.10

-EM

New Watchlist Addition: $MDP

383 views

Running through my two (2) screens this morning, I happened upon a very interesting looking volume void prospect: Meredith Corporation (MDP).

After all, everyone knows, nothing says growth and momentum like periodical publishers!  Nevertheless, this stock has nice fundamentals (via The PPT)  a beeeeutiful looking low volume region directly ahead:

I am currently monitoring the stock for a break of 38.10.  This price also coincides with the previous attempts to enter the void since 2010, as identified by the orange arrows.

-EM

 

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