Throughout yesterday’s session I kept my eye on a few stocks (9 to be exact) looking to initiate new positions or add to existing positions. A few had me optimistic, while others did not.
Bottom line, I did not buy anything. I am not exactly sure why I continue to err on the side of caution, seeing that this is a bull market, you know? There are no technical signs of panic or even distribution. Hell, the S&P hasn’t even retreated to the 20 day…yet I continue to sit here and give this market the “side eye”.
One thing that does have me a bit alarmed is the ongoing breakdown in GS. If the endless siphon of POMObucks from The Beard can’t keep the train a-movin’ forward, well, that is a bit disconcerting. Keep an eye on those developments.
If my cash position was higher, I would probably be more aggressive here, but I also watched a month ago as all of my 2013 effort was vaporized in a matter of days. At this juncture, I’d rather protect what I have made and set free stocks that are acting like idiots, than to go “all in” in (what could be) the latter stages of a bull run.
Greetings to my tens of readers, we have reached an interesting point in matters regarding the stock exchange. I was waiting for many of the stocks I am interested in buying to “pull back” or “consolidate”. I am seeing evidence of this happening in a number of different names that I hold in high regard.
Throughout this year I have been patiently picking my spots, chipping away with modest, but steady gains. Now I find myself in the opportune position of having 25% cash and several interesting places to invest said cash.
Granted, I would not be at all surprised if I get sucked into being 100% invested here and have things turn south on me…quickly. Since 2009, I have often found that the best “looking” opportunities often turn to dust (and worse) when I try to execute them with real money. Therefore, yes, I am a little eery here about going for it…but fortune favors the bold, no?
It’s been a while, so why not provide some notes on my positions?
AEIS has retreated to the 20 day. Since this rally has started, the 20 day has acted as support for pretty much everything in an “uptrend”. If we are to continue higher, I would be remiss if I neglected this opportunity to add here. I will be watching this one very quietly…waiting to pounce.
BX is another that has come in a bit and has been found nuzzling up to the 9 day EMA as support since Monday. I’m tempted here, but I’m also aware that the 20 day is about 80 cents lower from here, so since I already have a position that is treading water here I might as well wait and see what transpires before allocating additional funds.
I gave you CBI as a gift in the high 40’s. I’m still kicking myself for not reloading after earnings. Big winner.
I thought I was given a premium buying opportunity in CLMT when I bought shares last week…now it has (like AEIS) retreated to just below the 20 day. What concerns me is the moving average now appears to be acting as resistance more than support. I am interested in adding to the position here, but I do want to see how it handles the aforementioned resistance before making any decisions.
CNO is “basing”. I’m not a huge fan on trading breakouts, but if that is your thing, a strong move over 11.7 could see this one really start to fly. I am seeing a volume void on this one up to 17.5, so there is room to run once it breaks free.
CVD has been busy “honey badgering” this week after breaking above the recent 6 week base. I’m seeing a volume void into the low 80’s and will be looking to add on a pullback.
The GE daily chart looks like shit. Lots of gaps that have been faded, resulting in black candles…which is really unappealing to my delicate ocular sensibilities. Due to the relatively low beta of this stock, the starter that I bought constitutes about 5% of my assets, if this nonsense continues I’ll be looking to free up some cashola via selling some or all of this laggard.
IWM is an incredible place to put a percentage of your portfolio when things are going good.
I gave you some analysis on MGA back in late January in the low 50’s. It broke higher yesterday and has a date with an all-time high at 62.20 in the coming weeks.
MRH recorded the highest close since September…2005 yesterday. This is a MASSIVE volume void people. Yes, I know this stock seems boring, but there is little in the way of resistance until 29. There is also a huge gap from 2005 between 28 and 30. Runner potential here.
PCL closed over 50 for the first time since 2008. I still like this one for the dividend and the opportunity to get back to an all-time high around 56.
RWT has retreated. I have sizable realized gains in the name, and as I have mentioned in the past, I am looking to add shares when an opportunity arises. This one is on Defcon 3 watch, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the start of a lengthier base. Still lots of clean air above in the volume void.
My apologies for the lack of narrative over the course of these last two updates, but evidently these are busy times for crossing guards.
I didn’t sell anything yesterday, I didn’t buy anything either. This gap higher this morning is throwing a kink into my plans involving adding to/starting new positions on a dip. That’s part of the reason why I dislike gaps. Though, something tells me that this opening move will be faded.
I would appear that the relentless march upward has taken a pause, thanks to events over the weekend on some island in the Mediterranean named “Cyprus”. I have heard rumours (sic) of an advancing army on Thermopylae which could spook the market out of another 50-100 points in coming days.
Honestly, even though my paper profits are positioned to be halved in the coming days, this is what the “bad news” hawks are clinging to…Cyprus…yes, you know, the Cyprus that contributes…well, I’m not really sure what Cyprus contributes to the world economy, so I’ll have to get back to you on that.
My point is this: watch how the market reacts during this pullback. So far, the one dip we have seen was the best buying opportunity of the year. Hell, I hope volatility spikes again just so I can buy up VXX puts in my “idiot account” like a deranged maniac.
Anyway, I was on the teetering on the verge of selling 25% of every one of my discretionary positions (i.e., everything but IWM) late on Friday, but I had to leave work early to attend a home inspection, and therefore didn’t have an opportunity to do so. Based on experience, those ‘gut feelings’ are more often than not the proper course of action…and I chose to ignore it at my own peril.
I come to you, citizens of the internets, with more anecdotal evidence of a pending “correction” in the stock exchange.
Since I have started this portfolio at the dawn on 2013, I have only had one day with a better performance than yesterday. I feel as if my trading is cursed in this era of QE bull market runs…whereby every time I manage to string together some nice trades and am looking at generous paper profits, the market swoops in and snatches them from my grasp.
Thus you can understand my impending sense of doom as yesterday, essentially everything I own was green…and in most stocks, it was not just by a little.
For example, RWT has gone parabolic the past two weeks. I told you about this stock as it was “basing” in mid-late January stating: “If this stock can clear 19.5, what is to stop it from going to 30? Sure, one could say “common sense and logic”…and that would be a reasonable hypothesis. But we are also entering the “no logic” zone where demand far exceeds supply.”
We are currently sitting at 23.59.
I have sold half of my original position at two places in this rally (including once right before the close yesterday). Yes, I could have let it run, but I also expect some consolidation here soon…at which point I’ll reload with my sights set on my original target of 30 bucks/share.
Another of my olde (sic) time favorites was CBI. Now, I sold most of my position in this one prior to an earnings release and have not had a chance to reload.
Nevertheless, I was talking about this stock around the same time (mid January) with words such as: “Above 50, I foresee a push to all time highs in the low 60′s. While it is not likely to get there in a single swift move higher (i.e., stairs up, elevator down), there is little in the way of historical pricing equilibrium in this area to stop an advance.”
At that time it was trading at 48.15. Yesterday it closed at 57.82.
These are winners…and I served them up to you at a cost of nothing more than the time required to read my posts. Yes, my tales may lack the braggadocio that some of the other writers here are wont to employ…but I also know what the fuck I am doing…so do with that what you will.
Had you chosen to be more much aggressive with your asset allocation than I have, you, too, could be “crushing it”. As it stands, I’m chiseling away through new highs…slowly…quietly…but I’m there.
Yesterday brought about several transactions in the portfolio.
I had been watching CLMT for quite some time waiting to pounce. I almost bought on the break higher at the end of February, but held off and waited for a pullback. I didn’t want to get caught flat-footed, so I decided to pull the trigger on a starter late in the day yesterday at 39.07.
I should mention that this stock sports a volume void from current prices all the way up to all-time highs around 55. Translation: this one has a lot of room to run. Of course, you can ignore this information and keep trying to buy AAPL in search of a bottom…if that’s your thing, that’s cool, I’m just providing this information for your entertainment.
I also reloaded my MRH position on the break higher (at 25.75) out of the range the stock has been stuck in since early February. This was one of my first volume void finds, and also has a lot of room to run. So far this has been a low-beta, slowly developing experience…nevertheless, there is very limited historical volume to speak of from current prices all the way to all-time highs…around 43.
Again, this is another boring-ass stock that is not going to be “trending” on your favorite social media outlet…but could (and I emphasize COULD) appreciate significantly in the coming months. Yes, months…be patient. Or you could go and try to catch the bottom in EXK…I really don’t give a damn.
Lastly, I sold out of a little more than 25% of my PCL position at 49.67 (from 47.79) to raise some cash and lock in some gains.
The portfolio rolls on to a new highwater mark. Yes, the gains are somewhat muted YTD, but this is a marathon, not a sprint. There are plenty of people out there that can offer up trades that will return 200%…then conveniently forget to update others (trades) that go horribly wrong.
That’s fine.
Everything is here for you to see…this exercise is about managing money not recklessly throwing it around like a baboon flinging feces at the wall.
A fine morning to you, good citizens of the internet.
I must say, we are, without a shadow of a doubt, getting perilously close to another violent pullback in the market.
How can I say this with such certainty and vigour (sic), you ask? Good question.
Answer: I deployed more cash yesterday to fund new speculation into some new names entering volume voids.
Freewheeling purchases were made in both AEIS and CVD late in the day. I did cut free that stupid MDP position that was acting more like an anchor than an investment.
Additionally, I also locked in some profit from my very successful speculation into RWT. I sold only 25% of the shares that I own…no matter how long I have been trading, the feeling of satisfaction when turning “paper” profits into “real” profits never wanes.
I am tempted to take some PCL off of the table here for similar reasons. The stock currently comprises over 10% of my portfolio and it would be nice to lock in more gains prior to this impending pullback.
As for this pullback, don’t worry, there will be 16-40 hours of sheer panic as traders face the possibility of ending the day (or **gasp** DAYS) in the red. That said, DO NOT FEAR GOOD CITIZEN the beards are growing thick and wild in the halls of the Federal Reserve, and order will be restored in a matter of hours.
I had been stalking BX for a while now and it finally broke above the level I was watching. Even with the powerful move of late, I think this one still has a good 20% upside left from here. Should things shape up favorably, I will be looking to add on pullbacks.
CNO has had a lot of difficulty breaking through 11.5 in recent days/weeks; therefore I would not be surprised to see a pause here. If that happens, I am going to add to my position on a ‘constructive’ pullback.
Speaking on constructive pullbacks…I’m keeping a close eye on the happenings in GE, and am thinking about adding to my position here. This is especially true if the former resistance level at 23.50 continues to act as support.
I have held all of my (small) MDP position throughout this pullback, and it appears that we are nearing an area that could be prove favorable for adding. The risk I would take on through adding here would be extremely small, so I may go through with it as early as today.
I was highlighting RWT back in early January when it was trading in the high teens. Today it is just under 22. I know some of you took my advice, most of you probably scoffed at the idea of being patient and letting this one come to you because it was “boring”. To the former, I say: this can go to 30. To the latter: go kick some rocks…or, there is still plenty of time and room to board this train on pullbacks.
The stock exchange continues to march to new highs and I continue to be over-defensive and under-invested to fully take advantage of this move.
So what else is new? Keep watch on my transactions, because as soon as my cash levels drop below 20%, that is when we will be at the top…it’s a tried and true indicator.
Nevertheless, I continue to dig myself out of the hole.
Greetings internetsville. Nothing satisfies me quite like witnessing the Philadelphia Flyers jovially celebrating another blowout win vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins (in the first period)…only to have the Penguins screw their heads back on and score 4 unanswered to leave the Flyers and the great unwashed masses of their fans throwing tantrums and breaking their sticks in disgust.
HAHAHAHA, EABOD Flyers.
As for my portfolio, MDP took one on the chin yesterday. I didn’t sell…though I was tempted, but I will give this one a little more room and may even add to this position if I deem it necessary.
After over a month of monitoring, I pulled the trigger on a starter in MGA during this recent sideways action.
Even with the drubbing that was delivered courtesy of MDP, we still are chipping away at the losses incurred over the prior two weeks.
Throughout yesterday’s session I kept my eye on a few stocks (9 to be exact) looking to initiate new positions or add to existing positions. A few had me optimistic, while others did not.
Bottom line, I did not buy anything. I am not exactly sure why I continue to err on the side of caution, seeing that this is a bull market, you know? There are no technical signs of panic or even distribution. Hell, the S&P hasn’t even retreated to the 20 day…yet I continue to sit here and give this market the “side eye”.
One thing that does have me a bit alarmed is the ongoing breakdown in GS. If the endless siphon of POMObucks from The Beard can’t keep the train a-movin’ forward, well, that is a bit disconcerting. Keep an eye on those developments.
If my cash position was higher, I would probably be more aggressive here, but I also watched a month ago as all of my 2013 effort was vaporized in a matter of days. At this juncture, I’d rather protect what I have made and set free stocks that are acting like idiots, than to go “all in” in (what could be) the latter stages of a bull run.
Greetings to my tens of readers, we have reached an interesting point in matters regarding the stock exchange. I was waiting for many of the stocks I am interested in buying to “pull back” or “consolidate”. I am seeing evidence of this happening in a number of different names that I hold in high regard.
Throughout this year I have been patiently picking my spots, chipping away with modest, but steady gains. Now I find myself in the opportune position of having 25% cash and several interesting places to invest said cash.
Granted, I would not be at all surprised if I get sucked into being 100% invested here and have things turn south on me…quickly. Since 2009, I have often found that the best “looking” opportunities often turn to dust (and worse) when I try to execute them with real money. Therefore, yes, I am a little eery here about going for it…but fortune favors the bold, no?
It’s been a while, so why not provide some notes on my positions?
AEIS has retreated to the 20 day. Since this rally has started, the 20 day has acted as support for pretty much everything in an “uptrend”. If we are to continue higher, I would be remiss if I neglected this opportunity to add here. I will be watching this one very quietly…waiting to pounce.
BX is another that has come in a bit and has been found nuzzling up to the 9 day EMA as support since Monday. I’m tempted here, but I’m also aware that the 20 day is about 80 cents lower from here, so since I already have a position that is treading water here I might as well wait and see what transpires before allocating additional funds.
I gave you CBI as a gift in the high 40’s. I’m still kicking myself for not reloading after earnings. Big winner.
I thought I was given a premium buying opportunity in CLMT when I bought shares last week…now it has (like AEIS) retreated to just below the 20 day. What concerns me is the moving average now appears to be acting as resistance more than support. I am interested in adding to the position here, but I do want to see how it handles the aforementioned resistance before making any decisions.
CNO is “basing”. I’m not a huge fan on trading breakouts, but if that is your thing, a strong move over 11.7 could see this one really start to fly. I am seeing a volume void on this one up to 17.5, so there is room to run once it breaks free.
CVD has been busy “honey badgering” this week after breaking above the recent 6 week base. I’m seeing a volume void into the low 80’s and will be looking to add on a pullback.
The GE daily chart looks like shit. Lots of gaps that have been faded, resulting in black candles…which is really unappealing to my delicate ocular sensibilities. Due to the relatively low beta of this stock, the starter that I bought constitutes about 5% of my assets, if this nonsense continues I’ll be looking to free up some cashola via selling some or all of this laggard.
IWM is an incredible place to put a percentage of your portfolio when things are going good.
I gave you some analysis on MGA back in late January in the low 50’s. It broke higher yesterday and has a date with an all-time high at 62.20 in the coming weeks.
MRH recorded the highest close since September…2005 yesterday. This is a MASSIVE volume void people. Yes, I know this stock seems boring, but there is little in the way of resistance until 29. There is also a huge gap from 2005 between 28 and 30. Runner potential here.
PCL closed over 50 for the first time since 2008. I still like this one for the dividend and the opportunity to get back to an all-time high around 56.
RWT has retreated. I have sizable realized gains in the name, and as I have mentioned in the past, I am looking to add shares when an opportunity arises. This one is on Defcon 3 watch, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if this was the start of a lengthier base. Still lots of clean air above in the volume void.
My apologies for the lack of narrative over the course of these last two updates, but evidently these are busy times for crossing guards.
I didn’t sell anything yesterday, I didn’t buy anything either. This gap higher this morning is throwing a kink into my plans involving adding to/starting new positions on a dip. That’s part of the reason why I dislike gaps. Though, something tells me that this opening move will be faded.
I would appear that the relentless march upward has taken a pause, thanks to events over the weekend on some island in the Mediterranean named “Cyprus”. I have heard rumours (sic) of an advancing army on Thermopylae which could spook the market out of another 50-100 points in coming days.
Honestly, even though my paper profits are positioned to be halved in the coming days, this is what the “bad news” hawks are clinging to…Cyprus…yes, you know, the Cyprus that contributes…well, I’m not really sure what Cyprus contributes to the world economy, so I’ll have to get back to you on that.
My point is this: watch how the market reacts during this pullback. So far, the one dip we have seen was the best buying opportunity of the year. Hell, I hope volatility spikes again just so I can buy up VXX puts in my “idiot account” like a deranged maniac.
Anyway, I was on the teetering on the verge of selling 25% of every one of my discretionary positions (i.e., everything but IWM) late on Friday, but I had to leave work early to attend a home inspection, and therefore didn’t have an opportunity to do so. Based on experience, those ‘gut feelings’ are more often than not the proper course of action…and I chose to ignore it at my own peril.
I come to you, citizens of the internets, with more anecdotal evidence of a pending “correction” in the stock exchange.
Since I have started this portfolio at the dawn on 2013, I have only had one day with a better performance than yesterday. I feel as if my trading is cursed in this era of QE bull market runs…whereby every time I manage to string together some nice trades and am looking at generous paper profits, the market swoops in and snatches them from my grasp.
Thus you can understand my impending sense of doom as yesterday, essentially everything I own was green…and in most stocks, it was not just by a little.
For example, RWT has gone parabolic the past two weeks. I told you about this stock as it was “basing” in mid-late January stating: “If this stock can clear 19.5, what is to stop it from going to 30? Sure, one could say “common sense and logic”…and that would be a reasonable hypothesis. But we are also entering the “no logic” zone where demand far exceeds supply.”
We are currently sitting at 23.59.
I have sold half of my original position at two places in this rally (including once right before the close yesterday). Yes, I could have let it run, but I also expect some consolidation here soon…at which point I’ll reload with my sights set on my original target of 30 bucks/share.
Another of my olde (sic) time favorites was CBI. Now, I sold most of my position in this one prior to an earnings release and have not had a chance to reload.
Nevertheless, I was talking about this stock around the same time (mid January) with words such as: “Above 50, I foresee a push to all time highs in the low 60′s. While it is not likely to get there in a single swift move higher (i.e., stairs up, elevator down), there is little in the way of historical pricing equilibrium in this area to stop an advance.”
At that time it was trading at 48.15. Yesterday it closed at 57.82.
These are winners…and I served them up to you at a cost of nothing more than the time required to read my posts. Yes, my tales may lack the braggadocio that some of the other writers here are wont to employ…but I also know what the fuck I am doing…so do with that what you will.
Had you chosen to be more much aggressive with your asset allocation than I have, you, too, could be “crushing it”. As it stands, I’m chiseling away through new highs…slowly…quietly…but I’m there.
Yesterday brought about several transactions in the portfolio.
I had been watching CLMT for quite some time waiting to pounce. I almost bought on the break higher at the end of February, but held off and waited for a pullback. I didn’t want to get caught flat-footed, so I decided to pull the trigger on a starter late in the day yesterday at 39.07.
I should mention that this stock sports a volume void from current prices all the way up to all-time highs around 55. Translation: this one has a lot of room to run. Of course, you can ignore this information and keep trying to buy AAPL in search of a bottom…if that’s your thing, that’s cool, I’m just providing this information for your entertainment.
I also reloaded my MRH position on the break higher (at 25.75) out of the range the stock has been stuck in since early February. This was one of my first volume void finds, and also has a lot of room to run. So far this has been a low-beta, slowly developing experience…nevertheless, there is very limited historical volume to speak of from current prices all the way to all-time highs…around 43.
Again, this is another boring-ass stock that is not going to be “trending” on your favorite social media outlet…but could (and I emphasize COULD) appreciate significantly in the coming months. Yes, months…be patient. Or you could go and try to catch the bottom in EXK…I really don’t give a damn.
Lastly, I sold out of a little more than 25% of my PCL position at 49.67 (from 47.79) to raise some cash and lock in some gains.
The portfolio rolls on to a new highwater mark. Yes, the gains are somewhat muted YTD, but this is a marathon, not a sprint. There are plenty of people out there that can offer up trades that will return 200%…then conveniently forget to update others (trades) that go horribly wrong.
That’s fine.
Everything is here for you to see…this exercise is about managing money not recklessly throwing it around like a baboon flinging feces at the wall.
A fine morning to you, good citizens of the internet.
I must say, we are, without a shadow of a doubt, getting perilously close to another violent pullback in the market.
How can I say this with such certainty and vigour (sic), you ask? Good question.
Answer: I deployed more cash yesterday to fund new speculation into some new names entering volume voids.
Freewheeling purchases were made in both AEIS and CVD late in the day. I did cut free that stupid MDP position that was acting more like an anchor than an investment.
Additionally, I also locked in some profit from my very successful speculation into RWT. I sold only 25% of the shares that I own…no matter how long I have been trading, the feeling of satisfaction when turning “paper” profits into “real” profits never wanes.
I am tempted to take some PCL off of the table here for similar reasons. The stock currently comprises over 10% of my portfolio and it would be nice to lock in more gains prior to this impending pullback.
As for this pullback, don’t worry, there will be 16-40 hours of sheer panic as traders face the possibility of ending the day (or **gasp** DAYS) in the red. That said, DO NOT FEAR GOOD CITIZEN the beards are growing thick and wild in the halls of the Federal Reserve, and order will be restored in a matter of hours.
I had been stalking BX for a while now and it finally broke above the level I was watching. Even with the powerful move of late, I think this one still has a good 20% upside left from here. Should things shape up favorably, I will be looking to add on pullbacks.
CNO has had a lot of difficulty breaking through 11.5 in recent days/weeks; therefore I would not be surprised to see a pause here. If that happens, I am going to add to my position on a ‘constructive’ pullback.
Speaking on constructive pullbacks…I’m keeping a close eye on the happenings in GE, and am thinking about adding to my position here. This is especially true if the former resistance level at 23.50 continues to act as support.
I have held all of my (small) MDP position throughout this pullback, and it appears that we are nearing an area that could be prove favorable for adding. The risk I would take on through adding here would be extremely small, so I may go through with it as early as today.
I was highlighting RWT back in early January when it was trading in the high teens. Today it is just under 22. I know some of you took my advice, most of you probably scoffed at the idea of being patient and letting this one come to you because it was “boring”. To the former, I say: this can go to 30. To the latter: go kick some rocks…or, there is still plenty of time and room to board this train on pullbacks.
The stock exchange continues to march to new highs and I continue to be over-defensive and under-invested to fully take advantage of this move.
So what else is new? Keep watch on my transactions, because as soon as my cash levels drop below 20%, that is when we will be at the top…it’s a tried and true indicator.
Nevertheless, I continue to dig myself out of the hole.
Greetings internetsville. Nothing satisfies me quite like witnessing the Philadelphia Flyers jovially celebrating another blowout win vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins (in the first period)…only to have the Penguins screw their heads back on and score 4 unanswered to leave the Flyers and the great unwashed masses of their fans throwing tantrums and breaking their sticks in disgust.
HAHAHAHA, EABOD Flyers.
As for my portfolio, MDP took one on the chin yesterday. I didn’t sell…though I was tempted, but I will give this one a little more room and may even add to this position if I deem it necessary.
After over a month of monitoring, I pulled the trigger on a starter in MGA during this recent sideways action.
Even with the drubbing that was delivered courtesy of MDP, we still are chipping away at the losses incurred over the prior two weeks.
