Portfolio 01/24/13; $WGO and Some Introspection

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Huh…WGO did exactly what I thought it was going to do…and I let it slip away.  The quandary lies in whether the prudence in lightening up on a position that I started to feel unsure about is of greater good than sticking it out for just a little bit longer.

If I was able to view the position in a vacuum, I likely would not have sold half of my shares yesterday afternoon.  I would have looked at the chart and said:

“This thing is going to move in one direction or another.  Up until now the momentum has clearly been in favor of the bulls and this was a very mild (and low volatility) pullback.  Hell, it was merely resting on the 9 EMA (thanks goes out to Raul3 for that measure) and didn’t even come back to the 20.  Additionally, this stock is trading about 1/3 of the way into a significant volume void, so even if the bears wanted to mount a charge, where would that resistance come from?’

At no time in this stock’s publicly traded life has there been a sense of value at these prices.  I believe “value” (as determined by “agreement” between buyers and sellers) lies between 10-13 and 29-35.

But here?

Definitely not.

The next even remote region of resistance is between 23-24 (which is still +15% from these levels), and even that was a blip on the map as this stock knifed lower in 2007-2009.  There is lots of room to roam, and I was scared off of it by a stupid Indian car maker that amounted to a very small loss.

It’s a learning process, and with that I am supremely thankful for this blog.

When I was afforded this opportunity, I had the idea to use this as a completely transparent platform to delve into my attempt to extract money from the stock exchange.  With this space I can stay on top of, and explore my ideas in writing and practice.  Yes, I admit, I am not running the most exciting strategy ever concocted (there will be very very few +47k and +39k days in this account), but ‘putting one’s unit into the wind’, as they say, to thousands of people does take some gall.

My ideas and strategy are 100% my own and are constantly evolving…this place gives me an outlet to create a record of those ideas.  Yes, some of it is likely nonsensical rubbish, I just hope some of what I pen is of value to someone other than me.  That would be quite rewarding.

About other matters pertaining to the portfolio:

  • AN.  Rajin’ Cajun…if you are reading this, what do you think about the pattern this stock is making?  I ask because it has the look of one that is right up your alley.  Also I just really admire your short-term approach to the market in general.  Thanks.
  • Crazy, but CBI and PCL are both just levitating higher (I’m regretting saying this already), these trades are almost frighteningly easy.  It’s like the individual “give me my DOW 40” issues.  Effortless trading.  MRH may be joining this party.
  • Today I mentioned that: “if EEM were a person, I would take it to BKW for a horse meat sandwich”.  That sums up my relationship with this position.  We get to break up in 5 trading days.
  • Nothing new, CTB is having a good old time, “sashaying around” between 25.5 and 26.5.
  • Not that I would ever suggest following me into any of these trades, but VMC is going to give me an excellent opportunity to add in the coming days…

-EM

5 Responses to “Portfolio 01/24/13; $WGO and Some Introspection”

  1. I would use Thursday’s low as my stop, and would look to book profits on next leg. Too extended to enter with new money, but may see one more thrust higher. Slo Sto rolling over which also leaves room for concern. $AN

  2. Been loving the posts and please keep up the Price by Vol analysis.

    Similar to PbV, Gaps always seemed to get filled. Do you have any strategy for them? Examples:

    Z filled gap from 11-6-12

    GMCR is getting close to filling the big gap from 5-2-12.

    EW, has a way to go before filling the gap from 10-8-12.

    Also why do you have a 1/3 of your assets in EEM? Maybe I missed it, but overall you seem to diversify the risk pretty even.

    Thanks!

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