Price by Volume Request: TPX


This afternoon, my colleague Raul3 (aka @TwoSmuth) kindly asked the following:

Of course I said that I would oblige, but unfortunately these quality Saturday night NFL playoff games (and my 1/2 drunk idiotic shit -talking on Twitter) put a bit of a crimp in my plans to sit down and get some work done.

In keeping with my love and appreciation of fractals, I was going to start with an analysis of the monthly chart, move to the weekly…well, TPX went public in late 2003, so the weekly chart that I use encompasses that entire timeframe.

Here is what we are looking at:

My friend, as you can see, we are just about to get into a very thinly traded area…a classic “LVN”.

I’m measuring about a $15/share window there; therefore I think a reasonable goal is to try and position yourself to catch about 10-12 bucks (60-80%) of that area.  I would err on the side of caution and wait for the bottom side of the LVN to confirm more than I would in regard to the top, as, relatively speaking, there is far more historical volume below 35 than there is above 50. Plus, if it gets there ($50) you will likely be buying Tempur-pedics for extended family at that point anyway.

On the daily, I see there is that giant gap to fill, which, should it happen, could certainly work as resistance.  That’s still in the low 40’s, so one could build a position and monitor to see how price reacts around the gap.  You could probably be up $3-4/share at that point.

I hope this provided some of what you were looking for…nice find btw.


One Response to “Price by Volume Request: TPX”

  1. This is a great example. Thanks for sharing.

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