14 Weeks?

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On the internet, often hyperbole reigns supreme. These are hyperbolic times. Take a look at this chart, and answer me this: how the hell is anything supposed to keep up the pace that was set starting in January of 2012?

 

This the $QQQ chart, not some high beta growth stock. Granted, at this point $AAPL is basically a proxy for $QQQ, so take it for what it’s worth. Still, 14 straight WEEKS of higher closes on a major market ETF?!

I keep an eye on stocks in a number of different industries every day. I’m not sure how this happened, but the major averages were somehow able to mask much of the selling that started in early March. Industries that had been outperforming at the start of the year (namely Banks, Chemicals, Manufacturing, Automotive and Semis) started to roll over at varying times. I recall volatility drying up in a number of names that were left ‘coiling’ for pretty much all of February. There was a shakeout the first week of March, and while many of these stocks rallied, they never really recovered.

Since then, it has really been a stock pickers market. Breakouts were quickly culled, what appeared to be ‘healthy’ pullbacks have been breaking down left and right. You could see the dark clouds building on the horizon.

Still, I keep going back to that $QQQ chart and am left thinking: “is this really all that bad, or even unexpected?”

If I am a believer in mean reversion, then this should make perfect sense, no?

How many fucking weeks in a row did the Q’s have to close higher for me to recognize that the rally was getting overdone?

As for the current state of affairs in my account and the market: my shit sucks, the market is stupid.

I closed out my $COF calls this morning for a decent profit…I originally got into the position (June 47 calls) on March 7th, and held 1/3 of those contracts through today, which I sold at 5.60. I had an average cost of 3.98. I sold 1/3 at 3.92 the second 1/3 at 7.58. One of my better trades this year.

I also upped my $MO holdings by almost 50%, buying in at 31.82. It is now my largest position. I don’t see much to stop this stupid stock from going higher.

Everything else just annoys me. My remaining $DIA calls have turned into my own personal hell.

$THLD showed signs of life today (up 2.71%)…and looks like it desperately wants a reason to go up 7% in a day.

$LIZ is no more…the ticker has changed to $FNP…I don’t really have a good reason to sell it right now, so I’ll just sit tight.

$CREE is an interesting pullback candidate. It worked once for me…as I’m sitting on a nice profit from this trade, currently letting a 1/3 position ride.

$EXTR, oh yea, I still own a straggler position in that garbage too.

The Exodus from Silver is amazing to behold…it is a runaway train at this point, I’ll sit back and watch thankyouverymuch. Take a look at the fucking dollar while you are at it.

My best to you all.

-EM

http://youtu.be/GQKQ3-bzXV8

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