BBC says it’s official, a man who likes the market and wants us to make money and eat awesome steak has become President of Argentina.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34897150
I shared some charts of Argentina related stocks last week and I think we’ll see more trading in these ADRs. In fact it’s already begun according to the price action.
http://ibankcoin.com/edwardrooster/2015/11/17/tango-cash-buying-argentina-2/
Opposition candidate and former mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, according to the news, has become the next president of Argentina, marking the beginning of what could be a boom in a country locked out of the markets since the beginning of the 21st century.
The lack of interest in Argentina for stock jockeys was understandable given the past 15 years. Aside from hardcore ticker mavens, the last time Argentina was eligible to borrow from the global capital markets was back in 2001 and then came the default. Since then, it’s been a cycle of crisis on and off, and crisis briefly forgotten but not fixed. With Macri’s presidency, Argentina’s default status may soon change and maybe billionaire Paul Singer won’t have to seize anymore warships or freeze tiny bank accounts to get his point across for getting paid back on his distressed sovereign debt play in the land of Tangos & Steaks.
Initial thoughts:
(1) The black market in Argentine Pesos may evaporate if Macri liberalizes. The Peso may well sell off but the market is freed up at last and it’s the beginning of the return of Argentina to the capital markets. Despite what will happen to the Peso, I suspect stocks will still provide a nice return over the coming months during a “honeymoon” euphoria over Argentina’s version of “hope & change”.
(2) Bank stock ADRs are telegraphing anticipation of the end of a logjam in the Argentina’s prospects.
(3) I noted in my post last week that there may be a quarter of a trillion USD outside the country ready to return home.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=212&f=geo_argentina
My personal “favorites” include $GGAL and $PAM. I’ve included ETF $ARGT to offer a potential basket to trade.
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I love the look of that ARGT chart…
Yes UncleBuccs, I’ve been watching this space, with weekly prices, today is “sell the news” but I see some heavy hitters in the value space surprisingly getting into these, but first that “gap” and then we’ll see.