First post in a while but I feel like such a special occasion where millions of Americans waste their time thinking their vote tomorrow actually counts warrants a quick hello.
Let me break down the two scenarios, from the top 10%s and bottom 47%s perspective, that can occur.
1) Obama wins
Top 10%: More Bernanke –> more QE –> POMO forever. Asset prices continue to be inflated, causing stock market values to rise, giving a false sense of confidence to Joe Schmoe. Meanwhile, the rich get richer while the “poor” and “middle class” get $2,200 checks in the mail.
Bottom 47%: More Bernanke –> more QE –> POMO forever. Asset prices continue to be inflated, causing commodity prices to continue to soar, effectively devastating the middle class’ and poor’s expendable incomes. The rich get richer while the poor use that $2200 tax rebate to buy all time high priced gas and $7 bags of Doritos.
2) Romney wins
Top 10%: Taxes for rich continue to stay at their current “depressed” rates whereby 40% of income vanishes into some fat bureaucratic piker’s pocket. Capital gains tax won’t be hiked, thereby preventing a large shift in risk sentiment and asset allocation policies. Consumer confidence and business confidence returns to normalcy, causing business owners who did in fact build it themselves to thrive, helping to restimulate the, let’s be honest, completely lifeless economy.
Bottom 47%: Don’t receive there $2200 tax cuts, but see their expendable incomes become more valuable, as the dollar marches higher and asset prices consequently relax. Jobs should theoretically improve, as confidence returns.
At the end of the day, does it even matter? Things change, but do they ever actually become different?
