The Fly Will Slap You in the Mouth
For even reading this post.
For daring to take it in.
Basically, /ES up four days in a row (creates higher chance for mean reversion), and hugging the underside of what I said on Monday to expect in a bounce.
“I believe there is a good chance that we will bounce again towards the 1060 area, however, due to the red price bars and poor participation, I am considering the possibility that today was the bounce off of oversold conditions, and our intraday probe of the 1050s is all we’ll get. For the medium term (next month or so), the selloff still has legs until 975 area where we will assuredly bounce.”
The part I struck out was obviously an incorrect consideration on my part, but the bigger picture of what I said remains true. Â This is a little ballsy, since shorting is the equivalent of sticking your balls into a blast furnace, operated by the abandoned children of broke short-sellers. Â The main thing to remember is that you can be wrong all over the place as long your risk is managed. Â Fly will tell you he’s winning while appearing to lose badly. Â Coach will tell you chin-up, and take a lap. Â They are both correct, and I follow their sage advice to this very day. I may be wrong, but I have cause to believe I will be right, at least for tomorrow/next few days, and if I’m not, managed risk.
Also, preliminary checks on breadth are not rip-roaring.  Classic fakery if today’s big move has little breadth follow-through (don’t know for sure until after the bell when I run the numbers, but I have other intraday scans that approximate the EOD results.)
Shorted /ES at 1062.25 with a stop above 1073.25. Â That’s 11 points of risk, target is 1020s, or 40 points, so 4:1 R:R. Â If we get to <1054, will set a stop at b/e. Â Sub 1043, and that’s my new stop. Â May the light of Christ’s Lantern shine upon this trade (reverse blasphemy since we bottomed at 666).
note, we still have half an hour for wtf chart patterns, and today is most assuredly a trend day to the upside, so obviously someone slipped me some goofballs in my morning cocoa puffs
Daz phucked, Friar Tuck.
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Jake, I had to get a crown about 2 months ago in my farthest back molar, top row. Gold, son. Fuck that amalgam shit.
LOL! That’s what I call “investing in one’s dental health.”
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not quite sure I follow, but if it’s good enough for gint it’s good enough for me (not quite sure what that means either)
Same thing I’ve been thinking - right shoulder forming, planning to short around 1070. One other thought - anybody who bought the S&P in the past week is up, but most everybody who bought in the month before that is still down. Not sure what it all means.
One thing is fo sure–there were a lot of timed institutional buys in there today that supported specific price levels. Jobs tomorrow (meaning the lack thereof), so, the smoke and mirrors should resolve one way or another.
still in my es, it’s possible I will have to close and reshort near 1080. It occurred to me last night that my 73.25 (not a number out of a hat) may be too tight. cest la vie.
NOW, as I type, es is testing a critical 1064 level. Whatever the outcome…it’s planned for.
Hey, Danny,
Any chance of you posting
your buy sell/ breadth images for
Friday?
Ryan