Suckers Still Making Sucker’s Bet
I don’t get why people are so enamored with the upside.ﾃつ The money is good either way, as long as there is a direction.
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Today was a nice consolidation day after recent gains.ﾃつ The 920 area is still the line in the sand for bulls to prove to me that they have the cojones to propel the market higher and toward the 950 region which is still my near term upside target.
As of now, a pullback to 850 is a good place to cover shorts and add longs.
Tomorrow, my levels of interest on the SP-500:ﾃつ 852, 863, 874, 885, 888 (close), 896, 903, 909, 920, 943, 951
The burden is still on the market.ﾃつ No offense to those that are extra bullish, but you are treating this as if it was a casual asshole dip buy of the mid-2007 variety.ﾃつ It isn’t and frankly, it is ridiculous to do so.ﾃつ Imagine that you are the presiding Judge over the biggest bank boondoggle in generations…would you blithely accept just any ol’ evidence?ﾃつ Or would you be dedicated to rigorous study and intense scrutiny of the case files?ﾃつ Well, guess what, it’s real, and you are the sole arbiter of your portfolio’s justice.ﾃつ Remember that.ﾃつ Each day that the S&P closes below 900 is a new failure.ﾃつ Today was failure #1.ﾃつ You really do have to treat this market one day at a time and getting excited about upside in this environment seems foolish, but hey, maybe I’m the asshole, I usually am.
The economic situation is dire.ﾃつ We know this already?ﾃつ Priced in?ﾃつ Then why was FDX down 15% today? Yeah.ﾃつ You guys will be clown-fucked. What’s funny, is that everyone in the comments section will profess to have “said the entire time the rally was made from lollipops and gumballs” even though now, they are “quadruply levered long.”
I always make good money in December.ﾃつ Literally every year since I’ve started I’ve had a good December.ﾃつ I got the records to prove it.ﾃつ I mentioned the other night that last Dec. I made ridiculous money (best month of 2007) because shit was so one-sided.ﾃつ I would buy, and the stock would go up 20 straight percent, for no reason.ﾃつ That same thing is playing out this year, again.ﾃつ BE WARY OF IT.
I made the mistake last December of interpreting that market action as my supreme skill.ﾃつ Turns out, it was “The December Effect” which gave me the entirely wrong idea of how to treat the market in January.ﾃつ We may run for all of December.ﾃつ We may start going down next week.ﾃつ Tomorrow.ﾃつ Just know these gains are very spurious and entirely because of December trading.
All that said, the market is outperforming me so far MTD (8.9% to 3.6%, resp).ﾃつ I expect that to change soon.ﾃつ And really, that’s just an issue of semantics because if you measure from the last trading day of November (28th) to today, we’ve LOST -.8%
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
[click on all charts to enlarge]
Volume-Weighted Average Price Lines (1 hr chart)
SP-500
XLF
QQQQ
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
Intraday LoBVﾃ｢窶楪｢:
15 minute chart
Definition: This custom indicator measures the number of stocks and the distance they are from their respective moving averages.ﾃつ It is a reversion to the mean indicator in that if a large number of stocks are a large distance from their respective moving averages (in any direction), it often portends and predicts a reversal.
My Interpretation: Bearish crosses in both panes, SLoBV (pane #3) nowhere near done, watch for reading in the green band in the LoBV (pane #2) to buy.
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
Daily LoBVﾃ｢窶楪｢:
Definition: The same thing as the Intraday LoBVﾃ｢窶楪｢, except it measures the number of stocks and the distance they are from their moving averages on a daily basis, rather than an intraday basis.
My Interpretation: This is by far the most telling indicator today.ﾃつ Expand it and read it good and close.
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
iBC Daily Buy / Sell Strengthﾃ｢窶楪｢:
Definition: Counts the number of stocks feeling ﾃ｢竄ｬﾅ屠oyﾃ｢竄ｬﾂ or ﾃ｢竄ｬﾅ菟ainﾃ｢竄ｬﾂ (as Iﾃ｢竄ｬ邃｢ve quantified it) to sum up the zeitgeist of the day.ﾃつ This is akin to blood-pressure, or pulse, in that a person can look one way on the outside, but have an entirely better (or worse) situation going on internally.
My Interpretation: Low Sell Strengthﾃ｢窶楪｢ pullback, that’s good for bulls.
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
iBC Daily Buy / Sell Lineﾃ｢窶楪｢:
Definition: Is an oscillator of the Buy / Sell strength to see which theme is dominating the market on a weekly basis
My Interpretation:Crossing the zero line.
ﾃ｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶愿｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶敕｢竄ｬ窶
Some Worden Indicators:
13 wk something a rother overbought as all horse tits:
McClellan Oscillator:
2 Channels Below the 40-day:
Good stuff “December Danny.”
thanks
Well done, Danny.
I know how tiring it is to constantly post numerous charts post after post, and for your work, I thank you!
Yes, appreciate the posts.
Now go long and be right in December and January.
____
i have to accept that usually i overlook the indicators you show.
but its good to be reminded that this is a battle of knoweldge, ..the more you know, the less you loose.
i suffer from the december disease too, …
thanks guys.
re getting long Jake, I just hope we don’t gap up too significantly. I really am loathe to chase this market, and would make me more apt to play the other way.
if you guys really wanna make my day, tip me on the right
sahh-weet danny
trader of the week?
FWIW, I’m enamoured with the upside because I’m not into the idea of “Greek riots” coming to a city near me.
-DT
Good work Danny.
Danny:
???
Your formula day for yesterday was dead on. Any intraday updates or thoughts on today’s action?