ANF, LM, SKF, CLHB, GMXR Commentary
I own all of these stocks in one capacity or another.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF: 43.12 -0.81%) This company is a scourge on our fine earth. If you wear their clothes, your sartorial taste is appalling and I hold you in the same regard as murderers, rapists, and Ducati enthusiasts.
I got short at $54 for the millionth time (read this, and these). I may cover some of my short at 51.40 since it looks like $49 will hold. However, back around $55 and I’m in. Notice the volume at the $50 psych level, and the minimal volume at $55. Moreover, I might be willing to live with the pain of my ANF short, because , come on, they aren’t going back to $80 anytime soon.
Legg Mason, Inc. (LM: 28.92 +0.42%) I got in this short around $40, at the behest of Señor Tropicana. It’s underneath both $41 resistance and it’s trendline off the July lows.
Fuck those jerks. However, I can see this one moving higher to the underside of its trendline if the financials continue to bounce along. Which leads me to…
(SKF: 20.36 +0.49%) ! Gio just got short this bad S.O.B. Even though SKF is just a derivative of IYF, I still think you can apply some TA to it, because I’ve noticed that there are common inflection points in SKF that reflect the respective inflection points for its constituents. $150, 145, 130, 127 and 115 are some points that have in the past been where the price trend changes. So, since it’s still above $130 and $127, I like it. Also, $21 is strong-ass resistance in the (XLF: 15.54 -0.38%) . Watch that level like your life depends on it.
Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLHB: 63.52 0.00%) This old trash heap again. I like this stock longer term. $78 is an important level volume-wise, support-wise, and trend-wise. I’d be willing to buy this stock down to $68 before it’s longer-term trendline comes into play.
GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR: 9.59 -6.80%) Got in this name at $64.40 yesterday, got out 2/3 today $69.50. Looks like it will pull back to the breakout point, where I will add.
Even if ANF loses you money, you can hold your head up high that maintained your moral highground. I would rather lose money on their stock than wear their clothes.
And I will watch financials rally for a little bit, then short the fuck out of all of them when it hits that upper resistance on the XLF. Great charts. O’Doyle Rules.
agreed.
Nice list.
Don’t worry, I think I’m holding SKF short for 2-days. It’s a reaction on the market, since the past week has had incredibly low volume action… we could see some short covering heading into Friday. Plus, I thought SKF would have done better this week after the FNM and FRE debacle.
I too sold about 2/3 GMXR, and will be looking to add on a pullback next week.
CLHB is a nice stock. I’ve been following them for some time.
Yeah, the strength in those burritos is confusing. I think it’s quite bullish that the market is up on bad news, and I heard the expression somewhere the other day to “never short a dull market.”
That said, a lot of my indicators are about to turn negative…which either makes this THE buying opp for the next wave up to say 1350 or the precipice before selling begins to tick on again. That’s the way some of those oscillators seem to work.
My original analysis of this rally suggested it would last until the beginning of September (6wks), as the other counter trend rallies since the bear market began have been 1 month, 1 month, and 2 months. This one began on 7/16, so there you have it.
Is it that formulaic though? It never is but it sure seems like it lately. Maybe we’ll just slosh around, pissing everyone off.
Its a good thought… volume is low, very low everywhere, and the market is too dull. I think we can see a rally heading into September, then the big boys (institutional etc) will wait for an entry point to start selling. I keep trying to imagine myself as the head manager of a giant fund or institution, and I can’t see myself confidently buying this 2008 dip, there just isn’t anything fundamentally good right now to get aggressive long. I think a lot of people forget that institutional investors do not flip trades, when they buy, their holding periods are much more longer by contract or policy. i mean, what the heck would I write in my prospectus to the investors?… “hey guys, I’m buying the dip here because I think its the bottom.”
… given that “big boys” perspective, I think your rally theory is well timed. If early September does not notch us a follow-through day (on IBD standards), then I will short comfortably with the Vix between 18-19.
great points Gio.