Monthly Portfolio Update: March

202 views

Forgive me for the sort of randomness associated with my blog, as I try to create some structure for my blogging style.

With regard to my actual portfolio, I want to be able to provide updates that aren’t so frequent that they dominate my blog, but are frequent enough to represent the changes in the portfolio in a timely fashion. For now, I feel that once a month, at the end of each month, is the appropriate frequency. My style has morphed since my blogging hiatus, into something much more zen like. Generally, I feel that my chance of dying due to a heart attack resulting from trading activity is far, far reduced.

As you’ll notice, I do not intend to provide information regarding my hedging tactics, as the complex idea of hedging should be particular to each trader. Nor do I plan on stating exactly what percentage of my portfolio does a particular holding represent, as the actual percentages vary slightly from account to account. However, I will sort the positions in order of size and additionally, it should be assumed that none of them are larger than 10% of the entire portfolio, as that is my general guideline. Also what will be stated only generally, as opposed to in specifics, is my p&l.

What I do plan to blog each month is an accurate, although basic, representation of what I am holding, how it is performing and how I am performing over longer periods of time.

Here is the first update:

Ticker — Date Purchased — Price Purchased

 

NKE — 12/27/2012 — 51.25

XOM — 11/13/2012 — 86.85

AAPL — 2/1/2013 — 450.45

GOOG — 11/2/2012 — 694.60

HMC — 12/27/2012 — 36.40

WFM — 2/19/2013 — 88.30

RRC — 11/1/2012 — 65.60

SLV (SS) — 3/12/2013 — 28.25

Cash — 50%. I am also hedged on the majority of my long exposure such that my p&l won’t move unless my holdings far outperform the general market.

I am up 12% for the year.

 

Who Is Most Excited About Bitcoin?

199 views

Q: Who is most excited about Bitcoin?

A: The hackers.

 

An entirely electronic currency with exclusively identified parts? That is a hacker’s dream come true. I can’t wait to read about Anonymous claiming to have stolen millions in bitcoin monies because some of the mining computers which are always on and always connected to the internet weren’t as protected as need be and Anonymous decided to claim all their mining production. Honestly, hackers may kill Bitcoin before the government does.

 

LooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL.

Portfolio SELL: SMH

201 views

I sold 1/2 (edit: “the other half”, I have none left.) of my SMH this morning @ 34.99

 

Bought 11/7/2012 @ 31.68

Sold 4/02/2013 @ 34.99 (+10.45%)

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

160 views

“Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr” – Market Anthropology

 

As SLV breaks the base on the daily below (first pic), I’m looking at the 200 on the weekly (second pic) as the first “real” support.

 

slvdaily

 

 

slvweekly

Going to Miami, FL

291 views

I’ll be in Miami, FL from tomorrow morning through April 1st. I probably won’t blog too much, but I’ll try to get as much in as I can.

Weekend Recap 3/25/13

240 views

Easily my top two favorite teams in the tourney are LaSalle and FGCU. LaSalle because they’re a big 5 Philly team and FGCU because of the chicken dances. Bring on the Sweet 16!!

 

“Bears still angry; Bulls still scared” – Saw this tweet come across my stream and agreed with the author, it’s a perfect description of this market.

 

Here’s Market Anthropology’s weekend addition, Halfway Down The Stairs. Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

 

Factset link showing 9/10 SPX sectors have a declining EPS growth rate now. EPS Growth

 

ukarlewitz with a RT showing that within the SPY, 102 negative warnings vs 23 positive is a 4.4 N/P ratio which is the most negative since Q3 2001 if it persists

Bulkowski: Diamond Top in QQQ? Chart

This past month has seen no advantage over risk-free. Chart <I continue to lend heavy credence to these charts.>

All SPX sectors in nice uptrends with no trendline breaks. Chart

 

CiovaccoCapital pointing out that defensive ETFs were among the leaders last week: HDGE, XLP, PBJ, VXX, TLT <Lol @ VXX>

 

GravityInternational tweets “As touch as it is to stomach compromises to receive rescue funds & persistent structural headwinds in Euro-zone, troika is holding their hands. Banking model & economic growth structure in Eurozone is still unsustainable, though intervention is a slipper slope, continues to buy time. List of Euro-zone sovereigns needing structural economic & political reforms to receive aid grows, & eventually to dip into the well again. Euro-zone faces psychological damages from painful measures of internal devaluation compromises but countered by troika support affirmation. <yup.>

 

Cullen Roche says “US Treasuries Remain an Effective Portfolio Hedge” Blog

 

Ro Patel confirms DELL buyout updates: Carl Icahn offers $15/share, BX offers $14.25, DELL offers $13.65 and HPQ doesn’t offer anything. <Though there is still no clarity as to the structure of Icahn’s or BX’s deal>

 

Scott Redler tweets “spy held its 21 day during the week of volatility and now will attempt to take out pivot resistance that stands at $156.25-156.75”

And here’s his morning call. Morning Call

<Really his entire stream is value-add for the type of trader that I suspect makes up the majority of iBC visitors. He is a must follow and must read>

 

Stocktwits Best of week 3-24-13. Best of

And 20 trade ideas for the coming week 3-25-13. Coming week

<I am in the process of sorting through the names frequently found on stocktwits recommendations so take these links with a grain of salt>

 

Generally speaking I remain in a hedged environment and I am short silver.

 

 

 

Morning Links 3/22/13

369 views

Bears are just chip chipping away this week, showing up again where they need to and really trying to push SPY through its 20dma.

Futures are up just a bit this morning and the key note today will be if bears can establish a small trend down on this Friday.

 

Must read Market Anthropology released a new note: Total Consciousness

Do not miss Erik’s work!

 

ukarlewitz with a few interesting charts

RT of cperruna “Market Correction won’t start until NH-NL Diff turns negative (consistently)” Chart

Recommends this site, The Short Side of Long <First time I’ve visited the site, but the latest entry is a good read, so I’ll check back in the future.>

Notes “Friday will be a good tell. Tutes sell EOW when they’re nervous about w/e risk. Reverse is true as well. Which is why it correlates w/ trend.”

And perhaps most importantly, notes “While SPX has been flat for 2 weeks, TLT has moved higher. Over the past one month there has been zero return over risk-free” <For you risk adjusted measure folks. Also generally speaking, a bearish situation.>

 

CiovaccoCapital with a nice NYMO chart. Breadth

And another stock/bond chart that speaks to the same risk-free return concern in the market. SPY/IEF

 

Retail_Guru always providing the 411 on Retail reports, better than anywhere else you’ll find. Go read his stream. Though the tweet regarding NKE (iOwn) that stands out the msot to me is “Most impressive thing about NKE is how in its most mature market, the US, it can still drive scorching 18% sales growth”

 

And RedDogT3Live with his levels to watch “spx important support stands at 1538-1545. A close below this opens the door to 1517. A move back above 1552ish relieves some pressure”

 

Enjoy your weekends.

 

 

 

 

Portfolio SELL: SMH

195 views

I sold 1/2 of my SMH this morning @ 34.85

 

Bought 11/7/2012 @ 31.68

Sold 3/21/2013 @ 34.85 (+10%)

Morning Links 3/21/13

216 views

Market finished up 0.7% yesterday after a quick test of the 20dma on SPY the day before and topped out yesterday 1 std dev. above the 20. Another respectable day in volume as well. What was most surprising to me yesterday was the rather muted reaction to Fed. Maybe, finally, after 5 years, people are discounting the possibility of raising rates just yet. ORCL’s poor quarterly report was the biggest news after hours.

Futures are a tad soft this morning. Here’s some links:

In addition to his ES_F Swing Short, Legacy_Trades is building respectable short positions in the XHB. I was curious as to how big he would grow these, as a display of his conviction in the idea. <With XHB still in that jumbled area on the weekly from Fall of ’06, I’m interested in a potential short here.> Though I should say from discussions with LT, he is selectively shorting companies that are based in areas that he invests in real estate and believes those areas are not representative of the industry at large.

 

Market Anthropology updated his Euro’s Mirrored Pivot series. Blog

 

ukarlewitz supplied some good charts; FXI SMH Daily SMH Weekly AAPL

 

CiovaccoCapital with his own stock/bond chart<I find stock/bond charts to be extremely helpful in planning over the medium and long term (3-6mo+)>

Also notes that “QQQ closed with very hesitant/unsure-looking candlestick WED”, “While big picture remains bullish, cracks like XLY trailing XLP this week by 1.79% (not confident risk-on) tells us to respect downside”, and “Concerning for SPY & cannot be explained away by strong Dollar: GLD stronger than SLV, and Gold stronger than JJC Copper”  <Agreed, and Market Anthropology has been all over the GLD/SLV ratio as compared to SPY.>

 

Here’s an awesome blog from WaPo. Blog

 

And RedDogT3Live with his impeccable short-term support/resistance zones: “spx upper range has a support zone to trade against that stands at 1538-1545. With pivot resistance at 1557-1563”

Also notes “Today should be interesting. Usually we get a “trend” day after the fed speaks…”

 

 

 

 

Monthly Portfolio Update: March

202 views

Forgive me for the sort of randomness associated with my blog, as I try to create some structure for my blogging style.

With regard to my actual portfolio, I want to be able to provide updates that aren’t so frequent that they dominate my blog, but are frequent enough to represent the changes in the portfolio in a timely fashion. For now, I feel that once a month, at the end of each month, is the appropriate frequency. My style has morphed since my blogging hiatus, into something much more zen like. Generally, I feel that my chance of dying due to a heart attack resulting from trading activity is far, far reduced.

As you’ll notice, I do not intend to provide information regarding my hedging tactics, as the complex idea of hedging should be particular to each trader. Nor do I plan on stating exactly what percentage of my portfolio does a particular holding represent, as the actual percentages vary slightly from account to account. However, I will sort the positions in order of size and additionally, it should be assumed that none of them are larger than 10% of the entire portfolio, as that is my general guideline. Also what will be stated only generally, as opposed to in specifics, is my p&l.

What I do plan to blog each month is an accurate, although basic, representation of what I am holding, how it is performing and how I am performing over longer periods of time.

Here is the first update:

Ticker — Date Purchased — Price Purchased

 

NKE — 12/27/2012 — 51.25

XOM — 11/13/2012 — 86.85

AAPL — 2/1/2013 — 450.45

GOOG — 11/2/2012 — 694.60

HMC — 12/27/2012 — 36.40

WFM — 2/19/2013 — 88.30

RRC — 11/1/2012 — 65.60

SLV (SS) — 3/12/2013 — 28.25

Cash — 50%. I am also hedged on the majority of my long exposure such that my p&l won’t move unless my holdings far outperform the general market.

I am up 12% for the year.

 

Who Is Most Excited About Bitcoin?

199 views

Q: Who is most excited about Bitcoin?

A: The hackers.

 

An entirely electronic currency with exclusively identified parts? That is a hacker’s dream come true. I can’t wait to read about Anonymous claiming to have stolen millions in bitcoin monies because some of the mining computers which are always on and always connected to the internet weren’t as protected as need be and Anonymous decided to claim all their mining production. Honestly, hackers may kill Bitcoin before the government does.

 

LooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL.

Portfolio SELL: SMH

201 views

I sold 1/2 (edit: “the other half”, I have none left.) of my SMH this morning @ 34.99

 

Bought 11/7/2012 @ 31.68

Sold 4/02/2013 @ 34.99 (+10.45%)

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

160 views

“Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr” – Market Anthropology

 

As SLV breaks the base on the daily below (first pic), I’m looking at the 200 on the weekly (second pic) as the first “real” support.

 

slvdaily

 

 

slvweekly

Going to Miami, FL

291 views

I’ll be in Miami, FL from tomorrow morning through April 1st. I probably won’t blog too much, but I’ll try to get as much in as I can.

Weekend Recap 3/25/13

240 views

Easily my top two favorite teams in the tourney are LaSalle and FGCU. LaSalle because they’re a big 5 Philly team and FGCU because of the chicken dances. Bring on the Sweet 16!!

 

“Bears still angry; Bulls still scared” – Saw this tweet come across my stream and agreed with the author, it’s a perfect description of this market.

 

Here’s Market Anthropology’s weekend addition, Halfway Down The Stairs. Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

 

Factset link showing 9/10 SPX sectors have a declining EPS growth rate now. EPS Growth

 

ukarlewitz with a RT showing that within the SPY, 102 negative warnings vs 23 positive is a 4.4 N/P ratio which is the most negative since Q3 2001 if it persists

Bulkowski: Diamond Top in QQQ? Chart

This past month has seen no advantage over risk-free. Chart <I continue to lend heavy credence to these charts.>

All SPX sectors in nice uptrends with no trendline breaks. Chart

 

CiovaccoCapital pointing out that defensive ETFs were among the leaders last week: HDGE, XLP, PBJ, VXX, TLT <Lol @ VXX>

 

GravityInternational tweets “As touch as it is to stomach compromises to receive rescue funds & persistent structural headwinds in Euro-zone, troika is holding their hands. Banking model & economic growth structure in Eurozone is still unsustainable, though intervention is a slipper slope, continues to buy time. List of Euro-zone sovereigns needing structural economic & political reforms to receive aid grows, & eventually to dip into the well again. Euro-zone faces psychological damages from painful measures of internal devaluation compromises but countered by troika support affirmation. <yup.>

 

Cullen Roche says “US Treasuries Remain an Effective Portfolio Hedge” Blog

 

Ro Patel confirms DELL buyout updates: Carl Icahn offers $15/share, BX offers $14.25, DELL offers $13.65 and HPQ doesn’t offer anything. <Though there is still no clarity as to the structure of Icahn’s or BX’s deal>

 

Scott Redler tweets “spy held its 21 day during the week of volatility and now will attempt to take out pivot resistance that stands at $156.25-156.75”

And here’s his morning call. Morning Call

<Really his entire stream is value-add for the type of trader that I suspect makes up the majority of iBC visitors. He is a must follow and must read>

 

Stocktwits Best of week 3-24-13. Best of

And 20 trade ideas for the coming week 3-25-13. Coming week

<I am in the process of sorting through the names frequently found on stocktwits recommendations so take these links with a grain of salt>

 

Generally speaking I remain in a hedged environment and I am short silver.

 

 

 

Morning Links 3/22/13

369 views

Bears are just chip chipping away this week, showing up again where they need to and really trying to push SPY through its 20dma.

Futures are up just a bit this morning and the key note today will be if bears can establish a small trend down on this Friday.

 

Must read Market Anthropology released a new note: Total Consciousness

Do not miss Erik’s work!

 

ukarlewitz with a few interesting charts

RT of cperruna “Market Correction won’t start until NH-NL Diff turns negative (consistently)” Chart

Recommends this site, The Short Side of Long <First time I’ve visited the site, but the latest entry is a good read, so I’ll check back in the future.>

Notes “Friday will be a good tell. Tutes sell EOW when they’re nervous about w/e risk. Reverse is true as well. Which is why it correlates w/ trend.”

And perhaps most importantly, notes “While SPX has been flat for 2 weeks, TLT has moved higher. Over the past one month there has been zero return over risk-free” <For you risk adjusted measure folks. Also generally speaking, a bearish situation.>

 

CiovaccoCapital with a nice NYMO chart. Breadth

And another stock/bond chart that speaks to the same risk-free return concern in the market. SPY/IEF

 

Retail_Guru always providing the 411 on Retail reports, better than anywhere else you’ll find. Go read his stream. Though the tweet regarding NKE (iOwn) that stands out the msot to me is “Most impressive thing about NKE is how in its most mature market, the US, it can still drive scorching 18% sales growth”

 

And RedDogT3Live with his levels to watch “spx important support stands at 1538-1545. A close below this opens the door to 1517. A move back above 1552ish relieves some pressure”

 

Enjoy your weekends.

 

 

 

 

Portfolio SELL: SMH

195 views

I sold 1/2 of my SMH this morning @ 34.85

 

Bought 11/7/2012 @ 31.68

Sold 3/21/2013 @ 34.85 (+10%)

Morning Links 3/21/13

216 views

Market finished up 0.7% yesterday after a quick test of the 20dma on SPY the day before and topped out yesterday 1 std dev. above the 20. Another respectable day in volume as well. What was most surprising to me yesterday was the rather muted reaction to Fed. Maybe, finally, after 5 years, people are discounting the possibility of raising rates just yet. ORCL’s poor quarterly report was the biggest news after hours.

Futures are a tad soft this morning. Here’s some links:

In addition to his ES_F Swing Short, Legacy_Trades is building respectable short positions in the XHB. I was curious as to how big he would grow these, as a display of his conviction in the idea. <With XHB still in that jumbled area on the weekly from Fall of ’06, I’m interested in a potential short here.> Though I should say from discussions with LT, he is selectively shorting companies that are based in areas that he invests in real estate and believes those areas are not representative of the industry at large.

 

Market Anthropology updated his Euro’s Mirrored Pivot series. Blog

 

ukarlewitz supplied some good charts; FXI SMH Daily SMH Weekly AAPL

 

CiovaccoCapital with his own stock/bond chart<I find stock/bond charts to be extremely helpful in planning over the medium and long term (3-6mo+)>

Also notes that “QQQ closed with very hesitant/unsure-looking candlestick WED”, “While big picture remains bullish, cracks like XLY trailing XLP this week by 1.79% (not confident risk-on) tells us to respect downside”, and “Concerning for SPY & cannot be explained away by strong Dollar: GLD stronger than SLV, and Gold stronger than JJC Copper”  <Agreed, and Market Anthropology has been all over the GLD/SLV ratio as compared to SPY.>

 

Here’s an awesome blog from WaPo. Blog

 

And RedDogT3Live with his impeccable short-term support/resistance zones: “spx upper range has a support zone to trade against that stands at 1538-1545. With pivot resistance at 1557-1563”

Also notes “Today should be interesting. Usually we get a “trend” day after the fed speaks…”