iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

If the Yen Keeps Rallying, Say Sayonara to Stocks

Kamikaze-pilot-last-ritual-2

The action in equities is ugly this afternoon, as bulls did not want to see distribution day after last Thursday’s upside reversal.

I view the Japanese Yen as the wild card, or “X-factor” here, given the inverse relationship between stocks and the Yen. We looked at the Yen in recent weeks as being a snapback rally candidate.

And that is exactly what we are seeing here, coinciding with weakness in equities.

Should the Yen rally up to its ETF’s 50-day moving average, a real possibility, I expect equites to come under more pressure.

I am positioned for just that.

Into the final hour, I took profits for big wins in LAKE and JO.

See you for the recap.

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FXY

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Unveiling the Starbucks Thesis

umJPVpt

Updating my post from earlier, my Starbucks short is predicated on price being rejected down away from the declining 50 and 200-day moving averages, highlighted by the arrows on the daily chart, below.

On a relative and absolute basis, the stock has been quite weak since late-July, after being a huge consumer winner for years on end.

I still think the stock has the potential to dip into the mid-$60’s in the coming months.

I am wrong if we see a close back over $76.50.

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SBUX

 

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Descending Into the Abyss

HF6LXas

On the 10-minute chart today for the small cap ETF, I am keying off $107.75 below.

Buyers have been defending it all day, but they have been stopped by a series of lower highs, forming the highlighted descending triangle.

I am watching this pattern into the bell to see if we are, in fact, going to break lower and assault last week’s lows.

Drop me your top tickers this afternoon.

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IWM

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Back in the Starbucks Short

funny-Starbucks-human-resources-webcomic-spell

Here was my note to members just now inside 12631, (1/2 position size if 4% of my 12631 portfolio).

New SHORT: $SBUX @ $74.49 Cover-Stop: Over $76.50. 1/2 starter. Playing for breakdown from consolidation at declining 200-day moving average for former winner weakening.

I will be back in a bit with this chart. Drop me your top afternoon ideas.

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Respect This Raging Bull

BzNDQBrIcAA74mX.jpg-large

Note the coffee commodity, seen via the JO ETN, below, is ignoring overbought conditions today as it flips green.

That is our roadmap in determining if coffee is on the cusp of another meaningful leg higher in 2014 after an exhilarating first quarter and subsequent multi-month consolidation–We do not want to see a real price correction until the commodity has been pushing higher yet for quite some time.

Also note the rallies in other softs, such as cotton, corn, sugar, and wheat, all possibly following coffee, the leader, higher.

Any way you slice it, coffee has had a terrific 2014 and looks to be in its own raging bull.

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JO

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