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chessNwine

Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631

Practicing Minimalism This Afternoon

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Seeing as the small cap ETF, IWM, is still holding over the key $115.50 level we have been observing, I am holding off on adding to my short exposure.

My portfolio consists of short AMZN SBUX and short bonds. But I am reticent to really go after any index shorts of volatility longs with the small caps refusing to break lower yet. Until that happens, I am probably going to hold off on any fresh bearish bets.

As far as the long side, here are a few constructive charts, especially if we see a rally into the weekend: AKAM CRM ILMN JMBA WBMD.

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Scouting the Sohu House Scene

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With China internet stocks running in front of the upcoming BABA IPO, keep an eye on SOHU trying to hammer out (yellow arrows on daily chart, below) a bottom at the bottom of its recent, well-defined range.

Upside follow-through tomorrow and early next week should offer some type of quick long trade, with a stop-loss not far from $54.

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SOHU

 

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Five Stocks Advertising Well Today

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Courtesy of The PPT algorithm, here are the most current top five readings from my “12631 RELATIVE STRENGTH” custom-made screen, identifying which stocks are exuding some of the best performances to the market at-large at any given moment.

I look for stocks whose Daily PPT Hybrid Score surges, while the Weekly Hybrid has been negative over the past week. This can often yield stocks which are emerging from consolidations.

Members can click here to view and save the screen.

Sorted for at least 500,000 shares of daily average volume to ensure liquidity.

Please click on image to enlarge.

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2014-09-11_1204

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Rocking it Early On

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Into a soft tape, the UBNT long setup from last night is breaking higher, updated on the daily chart, below.

My SBUX short is getting a bit of traction to the downside, but still needs to crack $76.

What are you trading this morning?

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UBNT

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Morning Note and 9/11 Photo

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Above is a photo I like to post on the blog on September 11th every year. It was obviously taken well before 9/11 happened, but is a great one nonetheless to post on days like today.

As far as the market, keep an eye, again, on that $115.50 level on the IWM, ETF for the small caps in the Russell.

Whichever way it finally decides to break is now likely to declare the next directional move in the tape.

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IWM

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It Always Comes Down to the Reaction to the Reaction (to the News)

The following is just a small excerpt from my latest Weekly Strategy Session (please click on that hyperlink for details about trying it out) which I published for members and 12631 subscribers this past Sunday.

After a long rally in 2014, Treasures faced steady selling pressure last week.

In particular, after the tepid jobs report last Friday, Treasuries had every reason to rally. Initially, they bounced, but then were sold throughout the afternoon. 

The overall thesis for Treasuries remains the same–After a thirty-year bull market I believe that rates on the 10-year have bottomed on a generational basis, which means bond prices have topped out. 

The TLT ETF illustrates as much, with that major topping pattern we tracked back in 2011-2013 still confirmed. Even with the rally throughout 2014, the argument here was that, and continues to be, that it was a rally within the context of a new bear market. Also note that TLTfound resistance, initially, at the “underside” of the extended “neckline” of the confirmed head and shoulders top (purple line). 

Trading against the $119-$119.50 area above as a line in the sand, I believe traders have a well-defined risk parameter to short bonds this fall.

TBT TMV are the levered bearish instruments for bond prices.

For reference, here is basally the flip side of the above chart: A weekly for the 10-year yield index. 

Note the confirmed inverse head and shoulders bottom. The recent falling wedge (light blue lines) appears to be finding support to turn rates higher, with the sheer size of the consolidation projecting a move on the 10-year up to about 3.7%, if the upper light blue line is breached. 


Please click here to continue reading

 

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