Leaders are still leading…to the downside.
Biotechs, small caps, and techs in general are begin sold into strength, still, even after the weakness we have already seen in March.
This is all happening without seeing much fear in the tape this month. I still suspect complacency is in the air, with the likes of MA V sliding lower, too.
While some stocks may be holding up decently today, the persistent weakness in the leading parts of the market smacks of distribution.
It also worth noting that the likes of Exxon-Mobil are late-stage movers. In other words, they tend to be holdouts for much of the cycle until the very end. As an example, in the 2007-2009 bear market, XOM held up quite well, seen as a relatively safe haven in a world of carnage, until the very end of the bear when the claws finally got to the energy giant.
Similarly, now that Exxon is outperforming today it is too conclusory to assume that it can lead us much higher, or indeed is a bullish sign in any way—It could just as easily signal the end of the bounce in the tape, too.
Many gold/silver miners trying to put in a higher low here. The fact that the silver miners have outperformed the gold miners is bullish, despite the relative weakness in silver relative to gold.
Money is definitely leaving biotechs, small caps, and new tech stocks with wildly high growth expectations. While it’s not surprising money seems to be moving to your standard grandpa stocks, it’s also flowing into emerging markets. Those things don’t normally go together, not sure what to make of it.
“until the very end of the bear..”
hmm?
I guess I’m just a ‘Dork’, Chess.
I do hold core position(posting last in for simplification):
XOM Acquired 07/21/2010
Annualized Dividend Yield 2.58%
also..
COP Acquired 02/25/2010
Annualized Dividend Yield 3.92%
PSX Acquired 02/25/2010
Annualized Dividend Yield 2.04%
and my most recent add back of share
RIG(posted entries on the fan~tabulous Sir Raul’s blog)
Annualized Dividend Yield 5.44%
better than the local bank(savings)
Hope you are having a mighty fine weekend.
It is also true that this sector, Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration, was hit hard due to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill which began April 20, 2010. Following the explosion the sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days until it was capped on July 15, 2010.
I feel it’s important in mention this..
not to defend my position(s)
XOM hit a low of $56.51 on 10/10/2008 (long tail). It was bought up through the end of the year and did not retest/breach that level until 73 days after Gulf explosion^, July 1, 2010 LoD $56.17.
*In March of 2009($62.87 was the low on 3/05/2009) as the entire market went to H#ll.
*correction oopsa there
$62.13 LoD on 3/05/2009
sorry bout that..
In hindsight I wish I held full position on my entire dividend port from those Mar 09 lows
many scooped at levels I hope to never see again in my lifetime. Their yields are what pay the bills…
Truth!