I am short Treasuries since yesterday inside 12631 via TBT. I took my shot, finally, with the short bond trade after this recent bear market rally (200-day moving average declining). Price getting rejected from the 200-day just as the bond rally was becoming a sexy topic was enough to put me in the trade, playing for the rally to roll over.
Just remember, when you diss Bill Fleckenstein, you dis yourself.
To be serious, though, Fleck’s thesis is when the 10-year yield cracks over 3% again, the Fed will have lost the bond market and things will get loose to the downside in stocks as well.
I am trying to get out in front of that play, especially since bear market rallies tend to fizzle hard and fast.
Let’s see how that thesis stands up to the scrutiny of the market.
can you extrapolate on how this will or should effect gold/silver & commods Chess ?
thanks again good sir ; )
Wolf—If the Fed “loses the bond market” and rates go bonkers, metals should dramatically outperform, as should most commodities.
Huh? TLT GLD +0.9 correlation last 10 years
Correlations like that will break abruptly….
Chess, can you explain what you mean by the Fed “losing the bond market?” That it goes south as Fed buys less to prop it up? If so, why wouldn’t Fed stop taper? I know NOTHING about bonds… =^.^=
Fed lose bond mkt meme been round for yrs now, not happening. naive to say crosses some level drew with a crayon n then all hell breaks loose. not gonna be codependent chain reaction, too simple outcome.
Debbie, chess is repeating notion that rates on the longer end drift up and cause mass dislocations on sec. tied to int rate which is nearly all of em. Academically yes this is true but so far bond bulls have won 100x over, too soon to say this time is different
Debra, BOND KIND is correct in that the thesis is taking time to play out and it is tough to take it too seriously with the 10-year under 3%. The post was tongue in cheek to an extent, but obviously my trade is serious in TBT and will see how it plays out.
I sure don’t like the idea of crashing treasuries at the same time as stocks. I’ve been thinking about the possibility for awhile. My gut check says not yet…
Stocks aren’t crashing tho
Agreed
Chess
WYNN good for short , or you wait for the close?
tight cover-stop here above 226
look at this socialist socializing
I love how the market sells off as he signs
I know $CSCO isn’t cool… But look at the long-term charts. I think I see a potentially major breakout in progress on weekly or way back on monthly. Nice channel forming with just above 20 as support.
Shorter trendlines make it either look right at resistance or already broken out.
Gapping around earnings lately. Folk on StockTwits all over the potential for downside on earnings this arvo. Maybe. It wouldn’t take a big downside gap to break below the channel I’m looking at.
I’ll hold onto some long-term shares I picked up around $15 in 2011. I’ll probably buy more if it tanks – right around $20 looks about right. Below that and it could mean purgatory for the cisco kid.
Always appreciate your helpful and insightful technical perspectives, but I also appreciate your musical allegories. One of my favs was Chris Botti Boston Live. Watched on Youtube and listened to several times. Fleck is another fun group I hadnt heard of. Thanks!
Thanks, Dan!