I saw the estimable @Dasan Tweet this link out on his stream this morning. As always with LED, the usual suspects are CREE RBCN VECO, among others.
Alan E. Salzman is the chief executive officer and managing partner at VantagePoint Capital Partners.
On LED lighting
By 2020, you’re not going to be able to buy a light source other than an LED. You’re on a learning curve of cost reduction, quality improvement and efficacy improvement. Today, 2013, is the first year you’re going to be able to buy an exact clone of a regular 60-watt incandescent bulb at a reasonable price point—meaning a one-year payback to consumers. This year it’s a $10 product. We’re looking at it being a $5 product within 24 months, $2.50 within 48 months. So, by the time you get to 2020, it would be the equivalent cost to today’s regular light bulb, last 25 years and use 85% less energy.
But probably the more interesting thing is, after you digitize the light socket and you switch to LEDs, there’s a second and third wave coming. Changing the color temperature. Changing the ambience of the room. Being able to integrate other functionality—it’s your Wi-Fi hot spot, it’s your alarm system because it detects presence coming into the room. You’ve got a raft of functionality that just has to be integrated into the bulb itself.
Thanks, Chess, great insight in this article. I have seen LED bulbs in the hardware stores but didn’t want to pay the extra dollars. The second and third waves sound very promising.
Have to see if there are some good long ideas here (in additions to the ones you listed).
Cheers
$CRUS might be another beneficiary of this light crusade. The stock has been hammered… it has good numbers, a short squeeze candidate I would think.
I despise LED lighting, along with CFL. The light produced is too harsh, even with the new ‘warm’ 2700K bulbs. They actually contribute to sleep disorders because they give off too much blue light, which confuses the brain as to what time of day it is. I’m saving energy through using Eco incandescent bulbs (38% savings) but the writing is on the wall and they won’t be around forever. LED still has a long ways to go in my opinion.
This is bullshit.