Since I first flagged Mastercard for you as a long-term bullish setupĀ back in this post in March 2011, the stock has shot up from $251 to as high as $498 of late.
Looking at the updated weekly chart below, the case for a steep bearish rising wedge (light blue lines) is a viable one. The stock has already met its rough measured move target out of that 2008-2010 symmetrical triangle I first noted several years back. Thus, I am adopting at least a more neutral if not highly cautious bias to MasterCard into the first quarter or two of 2013.
The other scenario is that we see a broad market “max pain” leg higher that squeezes every last short, just like we saw in 2006/2007. For that reason, not making a suicide pact with these bearish theses is important, and discipline is always paramount.
Nonetheless, the technical case for late-stage base failure of leaders like MasterCard commands my respect.
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