You might argue that being bullish on Russia, with all of its perpetual political issues deeply rooted in history, amounts to dating a crazy Russian girl–You have the visceral drive and are pulled in by it, and you know it won’t end up well. But you are drawn in regardless. The reason why I bring up this analogy is because each and every time I have presented charts of the Russian market and/or Russian ADR’s over the years, I inevitably receive comments from readers warning of all the turmoil in the country and the inherent risks assumed (I’ve also
made the mistake had the pleasure of dating a few crazy, alluring Russian girls over the years).
With the emerging markets leading equities higher last week, China and India are obviously on the radar. Jim Chanos is also probably scaring enough people away from Brazil with his short thesis that China and India are the main foci for emerging market exposure. But Russia always seems to get the cold shoulder, perhaps a bit of revenge for General Winter’s great victories.
The weekly timeframe of the RSX ETF below (first chart) indicates that the $23 level held like a champ over the past fourteen months, effectively turning the 2008 crash gap resistance into firm support. Recently, the Russian market settled into an orderly falling bull wedge that appeared to resolve higher last week.
With this bullish development, the idea is to obviously look for upside follow-through. Keep an eye on the weekly inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern on telecom player VIP (second chart below). I want to see $12.50 breached to the upside to set the pattern in motion, and $10 to hold as downside support to keep it intact.
Also consider steelmaker MTL (third chart below). The weekly chart indicates bearish momentum (RSI & MACD) has been slowing over the past few quarters even as price made new lows. Look for a move through $6.40 to get a strong, snapback rally going.