Follow-up from my video recap today.
Emerging markets are ripe for a big move. As evidence, note the monthly timeframe below for the EEM ETF. A huge run-up into 2007. A crash into 2009. A snapback rally and subsequent mean-reverting flatline ever since light blue line, which also happened to be an initial support level during the massive 2007 topping phase.
Periods of compression often lead to explosion. The emerging markets have had several years to flatline.
Which way do the emerging markets break? Speak up in the comments section.
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Emerging markets are pretty cheap for reasonably high growth. I think we’re due for some gains.
Emerging & developed markets melt up into year end. January earnings season will be the truth detector for US equities. Given the central bankers efforts, we need to see some improving economic data in the US and abroad & US to continue the rally off the 2009 lows.
Twenty years of NAFTA…and Mexico is really taking off. Drug wars and murder make our headlines but automotive, telecom and more are creating a middle class w/ cash. $EWW
Mcafee’s song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPlMmwOq7U8
USD weighted returns will be the problem… as it has been a problem in the past. Random, off the cuff comments:
India is mired in a ton of internal political troubles, and they are mounting.
Social issues continue to curtail S American expansion (never mind tendencies to nationalize etc). In terms of S American exposure, isn’t it all Brazil (let’s not talk about Venezuela and oil)?
The news is already out on Mexico – what’s the smart money trade now?
China remains an insiders’ and speculators’ market – equities will continue to underperform the currency – no need to be a stockpicker and still maintain exposure.
Taiwan and Korea – news is out – want another smart phone, want chips with that? Taiwanese market has become too inbred. Korean success equals Samsung – name another company?
Finally, re EEM, I don’t like BlackRock as a company nor its management capacity (not prepared to defend these opinions) – by the way, no one pays dividends any more… less than trailing 2%?
Despite the negativity, EEM could be worth a hedged position.
IMO- Stealth accumulation is occurring in many areas of the market right now select equities are breaking out to new 2012 highs. I like PNR, MTW
EEM is losing momentum on the weekly and daily. I would tend to fade until the chart tells me otherwise. Cracks me up that you are asking us our opinions so you can fade them and we are coming here at least in part to fade your opinions. Like a big circle jerk.
Then again I could be completely wrong
Thanks, guys!
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