Stock bulls are cheering on the recent weakness in Treasuries. Calling a major top to a long-term bull run is always a tricky endeavor. The first step is likely to be the 50 day moving average now acting as resistance and starting to smooth out after rising. Price is now below that reference point, and a “throwback” or check back up to the gap is likely, unless this time it is different and we see a complete collapse in Treasuries. The odds favor a bounce in bonds here, at which point I will reevaluate at the 50 day m.a.. Yes, there is also the possibility of a hammer bottom printed today, but I am not going to go crazy with candlestick analysis on an ETF proxy for Treasuries like TLT.
2 Responses to Some Gaps to Fill In
“odds favor a bounce in bonds”
So correct to say ur short term bearish on the market?
Or is the takeaway that bonds, still in a lt uptrend, are at a bounce point, despte the final (and unnecessary caveat) about the entire analysis being based on the candlestick analysis?
Cuz looks like the second one to me, so im inclined to agree
Another poster on the site observed recently that there are other “safe havens” to put one’s cash in lieu of bonds. Being interested in the precious metals and miners, I have to say the $HUI is moving toward an interesting point as well, approaching the 100 day EMA which it could not break in June. It may well be “different” this time, or, another opportunity to short the miners soon.