Stock bulls are cheering on the recent weakness in Treasuries. Calling a major top to a long-term bull run is always a tricky endeavor. The first step is likely to be the 50 day moving average now acting as resistance and starting to smooth out after rising. Price is now below that reference point, and a “throwback” or check back up to the gap is likely, unless this time it is different and we see a complete collapse in Treasuries. The odds favor a bounce in bonds here, at which point I will reevaluate at the 50 day m.a.. Yes, there is also the possibility of a hammer bottom printed today, but I am not going to go crazy with candlestick analysis on an ETF proxy for Treasuries like TLT.