Even if natural gas has finally put in a good low, which is far from a sure thing still, as I have been discussing for a while now you can expect lots of violent backing and filling. The bottoming process can be a tedious one, full of heart-breaking shakeouts even if price makes higher lows.
As you can see on the UNG daily chart below, the rally of late has been sharp and enticed plenty of traders into playing the big bottom. Today’s high volume fade may signal a few shakeout days are coming. However, I would not be surprised to see a rally all the way up to the declining 200 day moving average. Even then, UNG might not have bottomed, and that reference point is going to be declining for a while longer, which means remaining extremely disciplined with natty longs is critical.