On Friday during the trading session, I note an intraday bear flag forming. Not long after I published that post, the market popped up and out of the bear flag pattern, putting shorts in a very tough spot. Of course, the move turned out to be nothing more than another head fake hell-bent on trapping/shaking out as many traders as possible. As you can see on the 15-munute SPY chart below, this morning the bears followed-through to the downside from Thursday’s selling, in spite of Friday’s respite or delay.
Unlike Thursday, though, today we have seen not a steady push lower all session, but instead a huge opening gap lower followed by  several weak bounce attempts. Either way, the bears once again have the initiative and it is theirs to lose in the short-term. However, cracking below 1306/7 on the S&P 500 is going to be the real test if we are going to see a major leg lower instead of the usual “three steps forward, four steps back, etc.” type of summer trading chop.
Also note on this 15-minute timeframe that the 20 and 50 period moving averages are guiding price lower and acting as resistance. Watch them.
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initiative “A” game right? 😉
Chess, All kidding aside these posts are great.
Hah. Fixed it, thanks.
No, thank you.
notice oil stocks here top pick APA bullish volume on the daily
I think we go up from here. I am long aud/usd and oil futures
chess, love you stuff. can I make a suggestion for your daily video. I would be interested to know how the euro markets are doing similar to your daily recaps on $spy. Just a thought, not sure if TA works on euro markets
TA does work on euro market. I am just usually pressed for time. Thanks. I will try to work it in whenI can but I have to focus on U.S. mkt as most trade just them.
understood, thanks , just a thought
Chess, I have always been really happy with your posts and have been thinking about joining 12631. I currently trade mainly commodity, currency, and index futures. I do not trade corporate equities very often. Given what I have just said, do you think I would still benefit from your service and how please? Thanks a lot for all your hard work
Thanks, jason. I believe you would benefit because we have such a vast community of traders who trade different markets with different styles. I try to incorporate as much into my analysis when I can.
I won’t be buying equities and I won’t be buying Vermont syrup anytime soon.
As always, thanks for your analysis.