http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSNxu_405Mk
The bear claws can come out at any time in a long-term bear cycle, which we have clearly been in since the turn of the century (see a monthly Nasdaq chart). Before this particular secular bear is all said and done, I expect to see a general consensus that stocks are a complete waste of time, similar to the BusinessWeek cover in August 1979. Of course, even after that cover the new secular bull market did not begin until three years later in August 1982. So, you can see how long these cycles can take to transition, even when it appears that they have run their course.
Along the way, there are plenty of cyclical bull markets within the long-term bearish cycle, which we appear to still be in despite the recent correction. The black swans can appear and the volcano can blow at any time, though they will fool a great many as to their exact timing. By the time this secular bear concludes, though, I am certain that risk will be a four letter word not just for cautious-in-nature market players, but for the overwhelming majority of them.
My first concert ever – in Florida of course. His music says “go on vacation” 🙂