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The series premier of Luck is coming on HBO in about ten minutes. So I will leave you guys to an open thread.
My questions to you are: Is the current stock market climbing a bullish “Wall of Worry”? Alternatively, are we simply getting sucked into a massive trap that bears have set before they roll this market back over?
Also, consider the following (admittedly just one isolated poll) bull/bear sentiment data from forexpros.com before you ask, “everyone is bullish, so how can there be a wall of worry?”
Discuss.
More of a wall of no one cares. It may last another week, or 2 more months. Serious stuff out there, but as long as China is ok (and they make up their data so should be ok) I think trend is up.
I think we’re about to feel some coordinated love; The Fed commits to low rates for 3 years, Sarkozy comes out with “we’re no longer at the edge of the cliff” statement today, and now we have renewed chatter of a Greek debt-swap deal. This is a full court press, and I think we rally for a while.
that forex poll is very fluid. it flys all over the place.
unscientific take: if we tank tomorrow that poll will be reversed. the forex crowd is quick to adapt.
I think it is inevitable that we will take out the 2011 highs.
We can’t crash now. Everyone thinks we will crash this year.
I think it is inevitable that we will sink below the 2011 lows.
We will crash. Everyone thinks we won’t crash this year.
Many of the names I watch are setting up beautifully on both daily and weekly charts. I am currently positioned for an orderly pullback leading into an aggressive thrust higher. Long, wanting to be longer, and 2/3 in a small TZA hedge.
I’m betting that we see a down move very soon. Nothing crazy, but I think that the overbought will correct via price rather than time.
the market won’t downdraft until every POS has squezzed hard. WWE is on deck.
This is the 3rd massive central bank stock market pump in as many years. Past charts seem to suggest they last 4 months or so. I think this one started in November 2011.
S&P will reach a new yearly high in Feb. or March. Then later in the spring the market will get carved back down to 1300ish.
All the while, Chess will continue to tease us with pix of smoking hot babes. And he will keep being coy, and never reveal his alternate career as card shark / ladies man….
We go no lower than 1255 then we make new highs before a serious correction … It’s a bull market until it isn’t.
Charts are looking nice. Volatility got chopped off. Just ride the wave higher. Some new calamity will present itself at some point in the future causing the next consolidation phase. Until then, live lavishly off the foamy valuations.
It’s sorta like Hell’s Kitchen at my house.
Chess, you should see me when I cook..:)
I like to use all four burners and the oven too. some stuff simmering..some stuff boiling..some stuff popping..some stuff flambe(showtime)..and some stuff baking.
timing is most important so that nothing burns.
the best bull trap ever
add..slow~cooker too. the stuff you let cook Slooowly(boring but flavorful)
blame it on the cook……….he did it
I see sentiment as mixed/confused, as shown by the great diversity of comments above. Many are still worried about a repeat of last year’s volatility.
The bespokeinvest.com poll from Jan 18th had bulls at 48% and bears at 52%. AAII is much more bullish, while the Yale crash confidence index is low (indicating there is fear of a crash). Mark Hulbert’s last column on his sentiment indicator showed very bullish sentiment.
Several studies have shown little or no correlation between future market moves and sentiment (they are coincident), so I tend to disregard this indicator.
low interest rates plus low inflation should be good. the market seems to foresee a recovery beyond all the well talked about landmines.